On New Year's Eve, I watched the Leafs - Islanders game in entirety. In the midst of a rough stretch, Matthew Knies stood out. Despite staying off the scoresheet, he was buzzing throughout the game, putting five shots on net in over 20 minutes of ice time. After being a passive shooter for almost two months, Knies was gunning regularly, which was encouraging. It felt like a big game was on the horizon, but we didn't get a big game. We got a massive game. Knies had one of the games of the season so far, scoring a hat trick against the Bruins. That's not all though. Knies also had two assists, six shots on goal, two penalty minutes, and had a +6 rating in the 6-4 win. Wow. He followed that up with another goal against the Flyers on Sunday. The return of Matthews can only help Knies. He's locked into a large role at even strength, and while he's not on PP1, Knies has played his way onto the fringe of 12'ers. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It was a slow start for Jake Guentzel in Tampa Bay, but that is clearly a thing of the past. Guentzel scored a goal and an assist with five shots in the 5-3 win over the Blue Jackets, extending his goal scoring streak to seven games. This game brings Guentzel up to 18 goals and 15 assists in 28 games, with the shot rate creeping back up towards three per game. I was extremely bullish on Guentzel in Tampa Bay, ranking him 12th overall. He hasn't quite been to that level, but that's what I'm expecting for the rest of the season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
If you want proof that no NHL coach has job security, look at what's happened over the last week. Boston is off to a slow start but after setting records two seasons ago and winning a playoff series six months ago, nobody saw him getting fired before American Thanksgiving. However, the news broke early on Tuesday that Boston was moving on with Joe Sacco as the interim coach. Then, on Sunday, St. Louis made a quick move to hire Montgomery. You have to feel bad for Drew Bannister, who only coached 76 games with the Blues and was a shocking 39-31-6 despite a weak roster, even though he was only 9-12-1 this season.
Tuesday was a rare day in the NHL where every team plays Thankfully, they stagger all of the game times, marketing it as "Frozen Frenzy." Arguably the marquee matchup of the night was Tampa Bay at New Jersey, and it certainly was the craziest game. The Lightning fell behind 2-1 before scoring five goals within ten minutes in the second period. In that stretch, Brandon Hagel had a natural hat trick, finishing the game with an assist as well. And yet, that still hasn't put him on the first power play unit . Regardless, Hagel is off to a fantastic start. I wasn't as far ahead of ADP on him as Guenther, but I was very bullish on Hagel. I'm not sure he'll get to the 90 points I attempted to wish into existence with my bold predictions post, but it's in play if he gets that top power play time eventually. Come on Cooper, do it already! Let's take a look at what else happened in the one Monday game and Tuesday night.
We're through my Top 20 overall and now it's time to focus on specific position groups. I'm starting off with goaltenders and will be breaking them into two tiers. A few things on my general goaltending philosophy for redrafts. If it's a head to head league, I'm never taking a goalie in the first two rounds, and rarely am I taking one in the first four rounds. There is too much variance on a week-to-week basis, and there will be plenty of good streaming opportunities, so there's no reason to invest that draft capital. Sure, it's great to have Igor, but you're going to be too far behind the eight ball offensively. Ideally, I'd end up with two guys in my second tier unless someone at the top falls, and then someone I really like in my third tier. In roto leagues, I'm a bit more willing to take a goalie in rounds 3-4, but again, I'm not going to force it. Unlike the top scorers, almost no goalies are consistent from year-to-year. Last year, five of my top seven goalies were big disappointments, with only Hellebuyck and Shesterkin paying off volume. Oettinger and Sorokin were considered for the #1 overall spot, but neither was a top twelve goalie. Vasilevskiy was injured and then played to horrendous ratios upon return. Georgiev piled up wins but had over a 3 GAA and below a .900 sv%. Saros' numbers dropped as well. Early in the draft, you want certainty, and you're not getting that with goalies. If you followed my rankings last year, I was well above consensus on Talbot, and he finished as the #5 overall goalie despite a dreadful month. There are spots to take advantage of, and hopefully they pan out that way again. Without further adieu, let's look at the cream of the crop!
Oh, the irony of the timing. Right as Ryan Smith, owner of the Utah Jazz, puts out a release saying that he's ready to bring a hockey team to Utah, the Arizona Coyotes go on a 14 game losing streak. Over the weekend, they managed to right the ship. The Coyotes snapped their skid on Friday, beating Ottawa 5-3, before defeating the Capitals 5-2 on Sunday. The featured performance was their former 9th overall pick Dylan Guenther. Guenther had a goal and an assist with two shots on Friday before scoring a goal and two assists with five shots and two PIM against the Capitals. Guenther playing over 18 minutes on Sunday was extremely encouraging. With Clayton Keller out, Guenther moved to the point on the first power play unit, and delivered three PPP over the two games. I've been a fan of Guenther's as a prospect and it looks like he's finding his game in the NHL. He's an elite streamer for the time being who you can hold for this week if you'd like. Arizona has four games, including two against the Blackhawks. In dynasties, I see a guy that eventually becomes a hold in all formats. I think he'll be a guy who gets three shots on goal per game on average, resulting in 25ish goals with upside for more with a good shooting percentage. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
A rare cold patch left Sam Reinhart sitting on 39 goals for almost three weeks. On Thursday, he reached the 40 goal mark for the first time in his career, and found another to get back to second in the league in goals. Reinhart scored two goals, one on the power play and one shorthanded, while also adding an assist with five shots in the 4-3 SO win over the Canadiens. Is this season sustainable for Reinhart? Definitely not while he's shooting over 25%. That said, he's in the perfect situation to be a point per game player going forward, assuming he stays in Florida. It seems likely he stays in free agency, but you never know if someone takes top dollar. Regardless, Reinhart certainly won't be in my top 20 next season like he is so far this year, but I expect him to be around 50th overall for me if he stays. He can counteract the crazy shooting percentage a bit by getting back to his usual shot rate, and Reino should remain elite on the power play. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
There's nothing else that T.J. Oshie has to prove on the ice. He's won the Stanley Cup and was one of the best players on his team. He became an Olympic hero for his performance in 2014. Oshie is about to play in his 1000th NHL game. This season has been a struggle for Oshie, but he's really turned it around lately, culminating in his best game of the season. Against his old team, Oshie scored a hat trick on five shots. This isn't just a little blip on the radar either. Oshie has a point in six of his last seven games, and the very encouraging thing is his shot rate has been excellent. Even at his peak, he was never a plus in shot rate, but in his last nine games, Oshie has 30 SOG. It's an even better rate if we go to a shorter sample. He's found chemistry with Patches and Strome, and the Capitals surprisingly continue to hang around the playoff picture. While he's playing this well, Oshie is in elite streamer territory. The schedule is about to get very difficult, but they do get another game with St. Louis before that happens. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
It's not too often that we get a day in the NHL where all 32 teams play. On Saturday, we were treated to sixteen games spread out over the entire day and it did not disappoint. The Oilers set a franchise record with their 10th win in a row, the Avalanche came from 3-0 down to beat Toronto, and the Flyers snapped the Jets point streak, amongst other things. There were a lot of big performances along the way, but Connor Ingram's 38 save shutout was one of the highlights. So I was right about a Coyotes goalie being a top 15 goalie, I just failed to pick the backup who showed little in the NHL before this season, whoops! Arizona continues to stay right around the wild card spots, and Ingram is the biggest reason why. Don't be surprised if they ride him more in the second half if he can maintain anything close to this .919 sv%, assuming Vejmelka doesn't turn it around. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Before we start, I just wanted to highlight two posts that came out on Monday much later than scheduled because of technical difficulties with the website. Jules' weekly streaming post can be read here, while I also updated my hold/stream list. Now back to the scheduled daily notes...
It looks worse because of their record, but in reality, Carolina is playing very close to the same level as last season. The difference is that their goaltending has been dreadful for the better part of three months, and that's from all three goalies. Thankfully, when they needed it most as Andersen was out with blood clots and Raanta completely lost his game, Pyotr Kochetkov has rounded back into form. On Tuesday, Kochetkov saved 28 of 29 shots in the Carolina 6-1 win over the Rangers. Going back to Kochetkov's last ten starts, he's allowed only one goal five times, and has only one game allowing more than three. Kochetkov has a 2.00 GAA in that stretch so it's no surprise to see Carolina back in second place in the division. There's a very reasonable chance they finish atop the division again. Kochetkov is still owned in less than 50% of leagues, and that doesn't make any sense to me. He's a top five goalie for the last month and should be owned in all leagues. Let's take a look at what else happened on Tuesday night:
It's safe to say that we've reached the point that nobody doubts Boston anymore. Their two top centers retired, and yet the team is chugging along at 16-4-3. Their new captain was the reason they won both games over the weekend. Brad Marchand scored the overtime winner against the Leafs on Saturday, his eighth shot on goal in the contest. He followed it up with a natural hat trick, scoring all three goals for the Bruins in their 3-1 win over the Blue Jackets. That gives Marchand 11+12 in 24 games, almost exactly a point per game. The big thing is his shot rate is at an all-time high. In my preseason rankings, I was uncertain on Marchand's ceiling, but speculated his shot rate could improve without Bergeron. He's at exactly 3.5 per game, and with his elite PIM as always, Marchand is still in the conversation for a top 20 player. At 35 years old, Marchand is showing no signs of slowing down. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Steve Yzerman can't ask for a better start from his big offseason swing. After his first game without a point as a Red Wing, Alex DeBrincat followed it up with a hat trick and an assist with five shots in Sunday's win over the Flames. That brings DeBrincat to a whopping eight goals and four assists in his first six games with Detroit. He's clicked with Dylan Larkin (two goals and three assists over two games) to give Detroit an elite first line. We've seen DeBrincat score 41 goals twice before playing with Kane, so it's not like this is completely out of nowhere. While this shooting percentage won't last, given how much Detroit is rolling the first line, I'm expecting career highs across the board for DeBrincat. There's a real chance Detroit plays its way into the playoff picture this season if the first line can win its matchups on a regular basis. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
