Going into Wednesday's game against the Sabres, the Red Wings were at the bottom of the cluster of teams battling for a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. They have the hardest remaining schedule in the NHL, so it was as close to a must win that a game could be for them with five weeks left in the season. After falling down 1-0, they took control of the game, with their future Hall of Famer leading the way. Patrick Kane had three points in the first period and finished with five, totaling two goals and three assists with five shots. I can't lie, I completely whiffed on a potential Kane turnaround. You can split his season into two parts: with Lalonde as coach and McLellan as coach. Since the coaching change, Kane has turned back the clock and found a level that we haven't seen in three years. He's a clear hold in all formats as the Red Wings try to snap the second longest playoff drought in the league. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
The big man has caught fire for Washington. Aliaksei Protas had his first career hat trick on Tuesday against the Ducks, scoring three goals on six shots. He has seven points in his last three games, bringing him to 28+3o in 65 games. Even with a poor shot rate, he's a no brainer hold, especially considering his +39 rating. I was absolutely shocked to see that he's available in over 60% of leagues still. Even the shot rate is starting to improve, as Protas has 26 SOG in his last ten games. Protas is still only 24 years old and has greatly increased his stock in dynasties as well. Yes, the shooting percentage has to regress over time. After all, he had only 6 goals last season shooting 5.3%, and now he's well over 20%. Even with that impending regression, he's getting to the right areas and Washington has turned into a powerhouse. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It was a slow start for Jake Guentzel in Tampa Bay, but that is clearly a thing of the past. Guentzel scored a goal and an assist with five shots in the 5-3 win over the Blue Jackets, extending his goal scoring streak to seven games. This game brings Guentzel up to 18 goals and 15 assists in 28 games, with the shot rate creeping back up towards three per game. I was extremely bullish on Guentzel in Tampa Bay, ranking him 12th overall. He hasn't quite been to that level, but that's what I'm expecting for the rest of the season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Dallas was in a mini slump having lost three of their last four games going into Monday night. Safe to say that they took their anger out on the Penguins. Dallas scored six goals in the first period, eventually winning the game 7-1. Mason Marchment led the charge, tying the franchise record for points in a period with four, before tallying a fifth in the third. Marchment's goal and four assists brought him up to a point per game on the season. The minutes lead Marchment to being quite streaky, which is a reason why I see him more as an elite streamer than hold. That said, you can make the case for holding Marchment on the bottom of your roster. The PIM are excellent, the hits are also very good, and his play at even strength leads to a top plus-minus. If you can stomach low shots and streaks, you can use Marchment for other team needs. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
The Avalanche are currently missing four top six quality wingers in Nichushkin, Landeskog, Lehkonen, and Drouin. With Rantanen being the only one left, opportunity has appeared for other guys, and one has grabbed the bull by the horns. Ross Colton moved onto the top line and top power play unit three games ago, and it couldn't be going any better. Colton scored two goals on five shots playing almost 22 minutes on Friday. Then, he scored two more goals on four shots on Sunday night. That brings Colton to six in six games with over four shots per game since he moved onto the top line. Is it going to last? Almost certainly not. Should he be owned in all leagues right now? Without any doubt. Who knows, maybe he keeps his spot all season and the Avs load up their middle six. Again, it's unlikely, but for as long as Colton keeps this role, he could easily be a top 50 player. Look at what Big Val has done in the past. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
The Jets are off to a perfect 3-0 start and they have their best players to thank for it. They've only given up two goals in three games (more on that guy later), and Mark Scheifele has been the difference maker in both games over the weekend. Scheifele tied Friday's games with just over a minute remaining before scoring the overtime winner against the Blackhawks. Then, on Sunday, he scored with one second on the clock at the end of the first period before setting up Connor for the overtime winner. Scheifele has two points in each of the three games so far, and the eleven shots is quite encouraging. At the end of the day, we should expect Scheifele to be around a point per game, so the shot rate will go a long way between being a top 50 player and being a top 100 player. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
We keep things moving in these parts with the rest of my forward rankings. I am going to put these guys into tiers with comments on players that I think are worth discussion. For example, I'm not going to talk about Scheifele because at this point, we know he's going to be right around a point per game with his goals coming down to how effective the Winnipeg PP is. For the Top 40, you can read that here. Let's get to it!
It's safe to say that with his performance on Tuesday night, Nathan MacKinnon locked up his first Hart trophy. MacKinnon had a hat trick on ten shots with an assist and two PIM against the Wild. He's been clearly the #1 overall player in fantasy and will be ranked #2 for me going into next season. I've had MacKinnon ranked there in the past, and I've received some push back for it. Hell, I received some push back on having him #3 this season ahead of Draisaitl. I also did for having Kucherov #5 when his ADP was lower, but sometimes, it pays to be stubborn on the guys you believe it. Colorado is almost locked into playing the Jets in the first round, and I can't see to see Colorado's offensive juggernaut go against the defensive discipline and best goalie in the world for the Jets. Let's take a look at what else happened on Tuesday night:
As a change of pace from my usual daily notes, I'm going to focus on one player on each NHL team whose value has changed recently, or could as the trade deadline approaches. Let's get to it!
In his last four games, Mason McTavish has four goals and three assists. His line has dominated despite Anaheim's overall struggles. McTavish is still available in over 50% of leagues, and if anything, his minutes should increase down the stretch once Henrique is moved out. I have confidence in McTavish becoming a top 50 player sooner than later, potentially next season. For now, I would definitely own him if your league doesn't have plus-minus. If it does, he's on the fringe.
It's been a long road to recovery for Artturi Lehkonen. With Big Val in the player assistance program, it couldn't have happened at a better time. After being eased back into the lineup, Lehkonen moved onto the top line the game before Tuesday night. While he went to the second line to open the game, Lehkonen blew up against the Capitals, scoring two goals and adding two assists putting five shots on goal in the 6-3 win. There's a few encouraging things here. One, Lehkonen was on the first power play unit. That alone is massive for his value. Additionally, it was Lehkonen, not Drouin, closing the game for the Avs, as Lehkonen scored an empty netter with a minute left from MacKinnon and Rantanen. Even in this role, Lehkonen received 18 minutes, which is plenty to succeed. This puts him right back on the fringe. Gun to head, I lean towards holding, but his schedule in the near term is heavy on busy days, so I see the case for leaving him as an elite streamer. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
If you’re new to this column or have no idea what the Friday/Sunday split is, it’s a simple yet effective way to maximize your weekly output no matter the format of your league. Typically — and it’s not always the case — heavy game loads are Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays, whereas Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Sundays are lighter. Streaming players on those lighter days is almost a necessity to ensure you’re getting the most of each week, but this column focuses on just Fridays and Sundays. Reason being is that you get more bang for your waiver add buck in picking up a guy who will play those two days and will almost always be able to slot into your starting lineup without having to sacrifice someone else to the bench.
Out of the top ranked goalies in the preseason, only Hellebuyck has played at an elite level. This is a big reason why I don't take goalies in the first two rounds, if not longer, because the variance is too high. My #1 goalie going into the season was Jake Oettinger. He didn't play well in the first half and also missed time due to injury. The All-Star break proved to be a good reset, as Oettinger was out of his mind on Tuesday. Oettinger made 47 saves in the 2-1 win over the Sabres, stealing the game for the Stars. After tomorrow, there's only two back-to-backs in the next four weeks for the Stars. We should see Oettinger get plenty of action, and I'd bet on him finishing the season strong. I don't do midseason rankings because I don't see a lot of value for the time it takes. You have the team you have, and if you are making trades, you need to target your weaknesses to improve. That said, if I was ranking for the rest of the season, Oettinger would still be a top five goalie. I'm not betting against him. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
