The trade deadline is this Friday, but we saw a couple trades on Saturday, one of which carries some big fantasy ramifications. The Panthers made their annual big swing, acquiring Seth Jones from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Spencer Knight and a first round pick, almost certainly in 2026. Even with Chicago retaining salary, Jones will cost the Panthers seven million a year for the next five years. Long time Razzballers know that I have never been a fan of Jones in real life compared to his reputation. I wouldn't want to commit to him for the next five years for free, let alone giving up a first round pick and Knight. That said, it will certainly help him stepping onto the defending Cup champions. So what can we expect for fantasy?
Well, my bold preseason prediction that Matvei Michkov would score 30+ goals has some hope. Since coming back from the Four Nations break, Michkov has completely torched the Oilers and the Penguins twice. Michkov scored two goals and an assist with four shots on Thursday, giving him eight points in his three games over the past week. Going back to the two games before the break, he also has 24 shots on goal in five games, which is incredibly encouraging going forward. I'm all in on Michkov long term as I've noted throughout the season, but his rough patch in January has left him on the waiver wire on around 50% of leagues. Even if he's just a hot schmotato for now, he's clearly must own right now because of the undeniable upside. If his shot rate gets up to three per game eventually, he's going to be a top 20 player for years. Let's take a look at what else happened on Thursday night:
All of the loyal Razzballers know my infatuation with Dylan Guenther in fantasy. It's been a tough month with him on the injured list, but he came back in a big, big way. Guenther tied the game against the Flyers on Tuesday before scoring with one second left in overtime to win the game. He finished with two goals and an assist with six shots and more importantly, 22:37 of ice time. It was great to see him handle that kind of workload right away. Utah still has three games before the Four Nations break, so if you're in one of those leagues without IR spots and Guenther is available, grab him immediately. There's easily top 100 upside here for the rest of the way. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's not too often that you see a team up 5-1 halfway through the game and they don't even get a point. In fact, they lost by multiple goals. The Sharks were taking it to the Predators on Tuesday before the firepower we expected from Smashville going into the season showed up, making a 7-5 comeback. They were led by one of their big free agent signings, Jonathan Marchessault, who had a goal and three assists with four shots. It was a brutal start to the season for Marchessault (like everyone on the Preds), but Marchessault is in the midst of a nine game point streak right now. The shot is fantastic, so he's played his way back onto the fringe with a lean towards holding, especially on this hot streak. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
I was originally going to take Sidney Crosby for three points but realized I took him within the last two weeks. Then, I was going to take Bryan Rust, but thought it was too bold, so went with Matchbox Twenty. Of course Thomas had two points (more on him later), but the other two both had three points. The top line for Pitt was fantastic, with Crosby and Rust each having a goal and two assists in the 5-3 win over the Oilers. Their plus-minuses are quite ugly, but Crosby and Rust have been fantastic for fantasy purposes. Rust doesn't get the credit he deserves for playing like a star. Crosby moved into 9th on the all-time points list and is starting to make a case for being on the hockey Mount Rushmore. He's probably just outside it, but regardless, we can never take Crosby for granted. Both should be top 50 players for the rest of the season, with Crosby having a good chance to get inside the top 25. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
If you want proof that no NHL coach has job security, look at what's happened over the last week. Boston is off to a slow start but after setting records two seasons ago and winning a playoff series six months ago, nobody saw him getting fired before American Thanksgiving. However, the news broke early on Tuesday that Boston was moving on with Joe Sacco as the interim coach. Then, on Sunday, St. Louis made a quick move to hire Montgomery. You have to feel bad for Drew Bannister, who only coached 76 games with the Blues and was a shocking 39-31-6 despite a weak roster, even though he was only 9-12-1 this season.
Tuesday was a rare day in the NHL where every team plays Thankfully, they stagger all of the game times, marketing it as "Frozen Frenzy." Arguably the marquee matchup of the night was Tampa Bay at New Jersey, and it certainly was the craziest game. The Lightning fell behind 2-1 before scoring five goals within ten minutes in the second period. In that stretch, Brandon Hagel had a natural hat trick, finishing the game with an assist as well. And yet, that still hasn't put him on the first power play unit . Regardless, Hagel is off to a fantastic start. I wasn't as far ahead of ADP on him as Guenther, but I was very bullish on Hagel. I'm not sure he'll get to the 90 points I attempted to wish into existence with my bold predictions post, but it's in play if he gets that top power play time eventually. Come on Cooper, do it already! Let's take a look at what else happened in the one Monday game and Tuesday night.
We're through my Top 20 overall and now it's time to focus on specific position groups. I'm starting off with goaltenders and will be breaking them into two tiers. A few things on my general goaltending philosophy for redrafts. If it's a head to head league, I'm never taking a goalie in the first two rounds, and rarely am I taking one in the first four rounds. There is too much variance on a week-to-week basis, and there will be plenty of good streaming opportunities, so there's no reason to invest that draft capital. Sure, it's great to have Igor, but you're going to be too far behind the eight ball offensively. Ideally, I'd end up with two guys in my second tier unless someone at the top falls, and then someone I really like in my third tier. In roto leagues, I'm a bit more willing to take a goalie in rounds 3-4, but again, I'm not going to force it. Unlike the top scorers, almost no goalies are consistent from year-to-year. Last year, five of my top seven goalies were big disappointments, with only Hellebuyck and Shesterkin paying off volume. Oettinger and Sorokin were considered for the #1 overall spot, but neither was a top twelve goalie. Vasilevskiy was injured and then played to horrendous ratios upon return. Georgiev piled up wins but had over a 3 GAA and below a .900 sv%. Saros' numbers dropped as well. Early in the draft, you want certainty, and you're not getting that with goalies. If you followed my rankings last year, I was well above consensus on Talbot, and he finished as the #5 overall goalie despite a dreadful month. There are spots to take advantage of, and hopefully they pan out that way again. Without further adieu, let's look at the cream of the crop!
Oh, the irony of the timing. Right as Ryan Smith, owner of the Utah Jazz, puts out a release saying that he's ready to bring a hockey team to Utah, the Arizona Coyotes go on a 14 game losing streak. Over the weekend, they managed to right the ship. The Coyotes snapped their skid on Friday, beating Ottawa 5-3, before defeating the Capitals 5-2 on Sunday. The featured performance was their former 9th overall pick Dylan Guenther. Guenther had a goal and an assist with two shots on Friday before scoring a goal and two assists with five shots and two PIM against the Capitals. Guenther playing over 18 minutes on Sunday was extremely encouraging. With Clayton Keller out, Guenther moved to the point on the first power play unit, and delivered three PPP over the two games. I've been a fan of Guenther's as a prospect and it looks like he's finding his game in the NHL. He's an elite streamer for the time being who you can hold for this week if you'd like. Arizona has four games, including two against the Blackhawks. In dynasties, I see a guy that eventually becomes a hold in all formats. I think he'll be a guy who gets three shots on goal per game on average, resulting in 25ish goals with upside for more with a good shooting percentage. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It's been a painful 13 years as a Sabres fan, but Tuesday's game might have been the worst. There were tanking years, there were disappointing years, but for as bad as it's been, there can't be a worse loss than giving up nine goals at home to one of the worst teams in the league missing two of their best players. "Kirill Marchenko is a lone bright spot lately. I’m not holding, but the minutes are going up, the goals and shots are decent enough, and he currently is a key figure on their PP. He’s a solid streamer." And that's me quoting me from yesterday! Well, it's time to give Marchenko a boost. Marchenko had a natural hat trick in this game. One of his goals was on the power play, he put four shots on goal, and he played 15 minutes despite the game being a blow out. Marchenko is now an elite streamer. Let's take a look at what else happened on Tuesday night:
On its face, Evan Rodrigues having an assist with four shots and two PIM in the 4-3 win over the Devils doesn't stand out as anything special. However, it was another data point that the Panthers are going to heavily depend on Rodrigues. He's remained on the first line and first power play unit which alone puts you on the fringe. While I think he's a poor offensive finisher, Rodrigues loves to take horrible shots which is a big value in fantasy. Rodrigues is available in over 80% of leagues, but I've seen enough for him to be a hold in all formats. It could dry up when Bennett returns, but based on where Rodrigues is playing on the PP, I don't see Bennett taking that spot. There's a chance Rodrigues is the best fantasy player who went undrafted in most leagues, so get him now. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
We're keeping things moving in the preseason with goaltending rankings coming today. All that I factor into rankings goaltenders are wins, GAA, and SV%. A big factor into determining wins is potential workload, so I give more value to workhorses than players in time shares. As I always preach in these parts, in head to head leagues, volume is king. In you're in a roto league where starts are capped, then you can give more value to the Gustavsson's of the hockey world. Let's get to it!
