If the early returns are any indication, the Flyers hit a massive home run picking 7th last year. Matvei Michkov dished two assists with three shots on Tuesday, giving him a five game point streak in which he has ten points. That brings him up to a point per game on the season as a 20 year old rookie (he turned 20 two days ago). We're starting to see the shot rate tick up a bit, and if you're in a league without hits but have PIM, Michkov is a top 20 forward on the season. Now imagine when the minutes increase, the team improves around him, and he grows into a better player. I don't think there's ten players in the league with more offensive talent than Michkov, and if the shot rate continues to grow, we're looking at a fantasy superstar for years to come. Let's take a look at what else happened on Tuesday night:
An injury on opening night took Macklin Celebrini out of the lineup for a while, but otherwise, his entrance in the NHL has gone swimmingly. Celebrini scored two goals and an assist with four shots, two PIM, two hits, and two blocks in over 20 minutes of ice time in the 7-2 Sharks win over the Kings on Monday. Celebrini has six goals and four assists in twelve games this season, and surprisingly, he's taking over three shots per game. I was not expecting this type of shot rate out of the gate for Celebrini, which is a game changer for his fantasy value. The plus-minus has the potential to be ugly, but you can make a good case for holding Celebrini in all formats now. Here's to hoping he can maintain this level of play over a long season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
If you want proof that no NHL coach has job security, look at what's happened over the last week. Boston is off to a slow start but after setting records two seasons ago and winning a playoff series six months ago, nobody saw him getting fired before American Thanksgiving. However, the news broke early on Tuesday that Boston was moving on with Joe Sacco as the interim coach. Then, on Sunday, St. Louis made a quick move to hire Montgomery. You have to feel bad for Drew Bannister, who only coached 76 games with the Blues and was a shocking 39-31-6 despite a weak roster, even though he was only 9-12-1 this season.
After blowing out the Senators on Tuesday, I was fully expecting the Sabres to lay an egg in Manhattan on Thursday. Instead, they scored on the first shift of the game and didn't look back. The Sabres won 6-1, with all twelve forwards getting at least one point in the game, just the second time that's happened in team history. Besides the top line continuing to dominate, the big story here is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. UPL saved 25 of 26 shots on Thursday, with the lone goal a completely fluky deflection that looped over him. Based on expected goals metrics, this was a second monster game in a row for Luukkonen, with the Detroit game before that also a solid performance. He's getting back to the goalie that he was last season, which makes him a solid #2 in fantasy. The upside is there for a bottom end #1 because UPL is the clear #1 with Levi the backup. In fact, if Anaheim waives Reimer when Gibson comes back shortly, I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Sabres claim Reimer back and send Levi down I-90 to Rochester. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
It's not often that a four point game goes to waste, but it happened on Tuesday night. Travis Konecny rallied the Flyers back to a 4-4 score, scoring two goals and dishing two assists, only for the Canes to score with 31 seconds left to win the game. Konecny already has 7+7 in 13 games, totals that nobody can complain with. He's playing over 20 minutes a night, giving him a great chance to set career high in goals and assists. The one concern is that he's getting destroyed at even strength, currently sitting at -9 despite all of his points. His shot rate is also fine, but not what we are accustomed to. For years, Konecny was around two shots per game, until the last three where he approached three and went well past it. Konecny has the chance to be a top 50 player this season, especially in PIM leagues, but he's going to have to get that shot rate back up. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Good morning all, welcome to week 3 of the NHL season. Let’s begin per usual today with our best and worst team schedules for the week:
This week we have a total of 5 teams playing 4 games, listed here in descending order by strength of schedule we have: New Jersey, Philly, Toronto, Tampa, and Detroit. Out of the 5 only the Devils and Flyers play on two “off-nights” and with only a single game being played on either Monday or Wednesday and all 32 teams playing on Tuesday those off-nights are extra valuable this week.
Additionally, the worst team schedules for the week go to: Vancouver, Columbus, and Buffalo. Again, listed in descending order by strength of schedule. All 3 of these teams play only 2 games this week and all of those games will be played on “busy nights” in the league. As such, if you have any players on your roster that were either streams or are borderline droppable from any of these three I highly recommend you look into swapping them out if possible with a player from one of the teams with a stronger schedule above.
The Jets are off to a perfect 3-0 start and they have their best players to thank for it. They've only given up two goals in three games (more on that guy later), and Mark Scheifele has been the difference maker in both games over the weekend. Scheifele tied Friday's games with just over a minute remaining before scoring the overtime winner against the Blackhawks. Then, on Sunday, he scored with one second on the clock at the end of the first period before setting up Connor for the overtime winner. Scheifele has two points in each of the three games so far, and the eleven shots is quite encouraging. At the end of the day, we should expect Scheifele to be around a point per game, so the shot rate will go a long way between being a top 50 player and being a top 100 player. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Opening night in Salt Lake City couldn't have gone any better for Utah HC. Dylan Guenther will go down in history after their first goal scorer, and he also sealed the game with an empty netter. Guenther picked up right where he left off last season with those two goals on five shots, playing over 16 minutes. To say I'm all in on Guenther is an understatement. Guenther's ADP was outside of the Top 200 while I had him ranked 96th overall. I'm a huge believer in his talent, and with Logan Cooley (2A, 3 SOG) as his centerman, I think we see fantastic seasons that elevate Utah into the playoffs. Let's take a look at what happened over the last three nights:
We're through my Top 20 overall and now it's time to focus on specific position groups. I'm starting off with goaltenders and will be breaking them into two tiers. A few things on my general goaltending philosophy for redrafts. If it's a head to head league, I'm never taking a goalie in the first two rounds, and rarely am I taking one in the first four rounds. There is too much variance on a week-to-week basis, and there will be plenty of good streaming opportunities, so there's no reason to invest that draft capital. Sure, it's great to have Igor, but you're going to be too far behind the eight ball offensively. Ideally, I'd end up with two guys in my second tier unless someone at the top falls, and then someone I really like in my third tier. In roto leagues, I'm a bit more willing to take a goalie in rounds 3-4, but again, I'm not going to force it. Unlike the top scorers, almost no goalies are consistent from year-to-year. Last year, five of my top seven goalies were big disappointments, with only Hellebuyck and Shesterkin paying off volume. Oettinger and Sorokin were considered for the #1 overall spot, but neither was a top twelve goalie. Vasilevskiy was injured and then played to horrendous ratios upon return. Georgiev piled up wins but had over a 3 GAA and below a .900 sv%. Saros' numbers dropped as well. Early in the draft, you want certainty, and you're not getting that with goalies. If you followed my rankings last year, I was well above consensus on Talbot, and he finished as the #5 overall goalie despite a dreadful month. There are spots to take advantage of, and hopefully they pan out that way again. Without further adieu, let's look at the cream of the crop!
It wouldn't be the first time that a Sabres trade acquisition got off to a hot start before flaming out, but this one looks different. Bowen Byram was a monster again on Tuesday, scoring two goals on four shots finishing +4 in the 7-3 win over the Red Wings. They'll have to win their next two games against the Islanders and Red Wings again, but the Sabres are creeping back onto the fringe of the playoff race. Byram's workload in his three games as a Sabre are that of a #1 defenseman, even if that honor goes to Dahlin. There's no doubting Byram's ability, and he's looking like a guy who can be a huge difference maker down the stretch this season and beyond. He's clear must own everywhere. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's safe to say that we've reached the point that nobody doubts Boston anymore. Their two top centers retired, and yet the team is chugging along at 16-4-3. Their new captain was the reason they won both games over the weekend. Brad Marchand scored the overtime winner against the Leafs on Saturday, his eighth shot on goal in the contest. He followed it up with a natural hat trick, scoring all three goals for the Bruins in their 3-1 win over the Blue Jackets. That gives Marchand 11+12 in 24 games, almost exactly a point per game. The big thing is his shot rate is at an all-time high. In my preseason rankings, I was uncertain on Marchand's ceiling, but speculated his shot rate could improve without Bergeron. He's at exactly 3.5 per game, and with his elite PIM as always, Marchand is still in the conversation for a top 20 player. At 35 years old, Marchand is showing no signs of slowing down. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It was quite the low scoring day on Thursday, with eight of the eleven games going under their betting total, two of which needed overtime to do so, plus there was a miracle in Boston (more on that later). There were four shutouts on the night, all of which were quite surprising. I'll go in chronological order. The Avalanche were undefeated on the season, so naturally Tristan Jarry shut them out, making 31 saves. Jarry now has two shutouts, two dreadful starts, and one mediocre start. He's one of the highest variance goalies around. I'm lower on him than most, but I acknowledge that he could be a bottom end #1. Next, Jonas Johansson had his second consecutive shutout, making 23 saves against the Sharks. He's clearly must own for now, although like Jarry, the downside is undeniable. Joel Hofer shutout the Flames, making 27 saves. I was high on him because I don't believe in Binnington. Both have been off to a hot start, but I'm skeptical of the Blues being good defensively. I'm bullish in Hofer for dynasties, but in redrafts, he's a selective streamer with upside. Lastly, Jonathan Quick shut out the Oilers, making 29 saves. He made a couple spectacular saves, but color me skeptical. I think this says more about the Oilers without McJesus than anything. Quick is a reasonable streamer in plus matchups for now, but know that it could blow up in your face. Let's see what else happened on Wednesday and Thursday night:
