It's not too often that you see the first period natural hat trick, but it happened on Tuesday night. Kyle Connor scored his 24th-26th goals in the first period against the Canucks, adding a power play assist later in the game. It's been a fantastic start to the season by the Jets, and they've been led by the two Connor's. Here is the list of forwards who have provided more value than Connor to this point in the season: MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Kucherov. That's it. Obviously he losses some value in non-hits leagues, but regardless, we're looking at a season full of career highs for a player who has already had 47 goals in a season and 49 assists in a separate season. It's time for Connor to start being acknowledged for the superstar that he is. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
I attribute a lot of it to randomness, but the new coach bump seems to happen over and over again. Right now, it's happening in Detroit, where Todd McLellan has the Red Wings on a seven game winning streak shortly after taking over the team. Given the ugliness of the Eastern Conference Wild Card race, that's vaulted Detroit right back into contention. A few guys have been thriving for Detroit, but I want to focus on Marco Kasper. The former eighth overall pick is getting his first real opportunity in a big role, playing first line minutes with Larkin and Raymond. In both games over the weekend, Kasper had a goal and an assist, with five shots between the two games. He's getting second power play unit time as well, which is enough to bump Kasper into the middling to solid streamer range for the time being. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It's not too often that a player scores four points in a game. It's even less often that it happens in a losing effort. On Monday, J.T. Miller scored two goals and two assists with three shots, only for the Canucks to lose to the red hot Canadiens 5-4 in overtime. The ongoing speculation around Miller and Pettersson is rampant, and you have to think it's taking a toll on both of them. Reports are that the Rangers were interested in getting him back, but it never reached the point where Zibanejad was asked to waive his no trade because the Canucks didn't want to make a move around those two. At the end of the day, it hasn't been Miller's best season, but he's sitting at a point per game. That shows how high his floor is, despite his shot rate really dropping. Perhaps we see a surge from him now that Quinn Hughes (2A, SOG) is back as well. I was asked about Miller in the comments recently, and I didn't think perception was that Miller's value is down quite a bit. I'd certainly lean towards the buy low side than trading to move Miller if I owned him. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It was a slow start for Jake Guentzel in Tampa Bay, but that is clearly a thing of the past. Guentzel scored a goal and an assist with five shots in the 5-3 win over the Blue Jackets, extending his goal scoring streak to seven games. This game brings Guentzel up to 18 goals and 15 assists in 28 games, with the shot rate creeping back up towards three per game. I was extremely bullish on Guentzel in Tampa Bay, ranking him 12th overall. He hasn't quite been to that level, but that's what I'm expecting for the rest of the season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Dallas was in a mini slump having lost three of their last four games going into Monday night. Safe to say that they took their anger out on the Penguins. Dallas scored six goals in the first period, eventually winning the game 7-1. Mason Marchment led the charge, tying the franchise record for points in a period with four, before tallying a fifth in the third. Marchment's goal and four assists brought him up to a point per game on the season. The minutes lead Marchment to being quite streaky, which is a reason why I see him more as an elite streamer than hold. That said, you can make the case for holding Marchment on the bottom of your roster. The PIM are excellent, the hits are also very good, and his play at even strength leads to a top plus-minus. If you can stomach low shots and streaks, you can use Marchment for other team needs. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
The Avalanche are currently missing four top six quality wingers in Nichushkin, Landeskog, Lehkonen, and Drouin. With Rantanen being the only one left, opportunity has appeared for other guys, and one has grabbed the bull by the horns. Ross Colton moved onto the top line and top power play unit three games ago, and it couldn't be going any better. Colton scored two goals on five shots playing almost 22 minutes on Friday. Then, he scored two more goals on four shots on Sunday night. That brings Colton to six in six games with over four shots per game since he moved onto the top line. Is it going to last? Almost certainly not. Should he be owned in all leagues right now? Without any doubt. Who knows, maybe he keeps his spot all season and the Avs load up their middle six. Again, it's unlikely, but for as long as Colton keeps this role, he could easily be a top 50 player. Look at what Big Val has done in the past. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
The Jets are off to a perfect 3-0 start and they have their best players to thank for it. They've only given up two goals in three games (more on that guy later), and Mark Scheifele has been the difference maker in both games over the weekend. Scheifele tied Friday's games with just over a minute remaining before scoring the overtime winner against the Blackhawks. Then, on Sunday, he scored with one second on the clock at the end of the first period before setting up Connor for the overtime winner. Scheifele has two points in each of the three games so far, and the eleven shots is quite encouraging. At the end of the day, we should expect Scheifele to be around a point per game, so the shot rate will go a long way between being a top 50 player and being a top 100 player. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
We wrap things up in these parts with my forward rankings. If you're looking solely for a draft board, then you can use my Top 200 here. If you want to know why guys are ranked where, and whether I like them or not based on where they get drafted, then this is the post for you. Let's get right to it!
Last season, Alex Lyon saved Florida by getting them into the playoffs until Bob returned from injury. While I'm not predicting a Stanley Cup run from the Red Wings, Lyon has saved somebody for the second straight season. The Red Wings were in a massive downward spiral, and Lyon has stepped in to get them back into the playoff picture. Lyon had a 30 save shutout in the 3-0 win over the Flyers on Thursday. He's won 12 of his 19 starts, and is currently sitting at a .920 save percentage. So why is he available in 70% of leagues? He's clearly a #2 goalie in 12'ers at the very least, and I'd argue that he's near the top end of #2's right now. If you need goaltending help and Lyon is available, consider it your lucky day and pick him up. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
There's nothing else that T.J. Oshie has to prove on the ice. He's won the Stanley Cup and was one of the best players on his team. He became an Olympic hero for his performance in 2014. Oshie is about to play in his 1000th NHL game. This season has been a struggle for Oshie, but he's really turned it around lately, culminating in his best game of the season. Against his old team, Oshie scored a hat trick on five shots. This isn't just a little blip on the radar either. Oshie has a point in six of his last seven games, and the very encouraging thing is his shot rate has been excellent. Even at his peak, he was never a plus in shot rate, but in his last nine games, Oshie has 30 SOG. It's an even better rate if we go to a shorter sample. He's found chemistry with Patches and Strome, and the Capitals surprisingly continue to hang around the playoff picture. While he's playing this well, Oshie is in elite streamer territory. The schedule is about to get very difficult, but they do get another game with St. Louis before that happens. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
It's been a disastrous season for the Wild, and it's hard to imagine them digging out of this hole. Monday was a lone bright spot, both for the team and their oldest player. The Wild beat the Islanders 5-0, with Marc-Andre Fleury posting a 21 save shutout. The win gave Fleury the second most wins in NHL history, passing Patrick Roy. It's been a very up and down career for Fleury. He was incredible in the 2008 playoffs getting Pittsburgh to the finals. His most iconic moment clinched the Cup the year after. There were a handful of years right after that where his poor play was the reason the Penguins were eliminated early in the playoffs. They won a Stanley Cup with him as the backup. He also saved them the next year when Murray struggled early in the playoffs to lead Pittsburgh to back-to-back cups. He carried Vegas to the Cup finals in their inaugural season. That's how I'm going to remember MAF. There were too many down years for him to be in that inner circle of all-time goalies, and his best generally wasn't among the current elite, as evidenced by him being a Vezina finalist once in 20 seasons. However, when he was at his best, it was incredible to watch, and that will put him in the Hockey Hall of Fame sooner than later. For this season, Gustavsson is back, so I expect them to split the games fairly evenly. He's a streamer in good matchups for now, but like most goalies, MAF can turn into a hold sooner than later, or be complete unusable. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the tenth edition of JOT This Down!
Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
