Hey guys! Sven here, and for all of you Lil Yachty fans out there it's about to get cold like Minnesota! Over the next month, I will be taking a look at each team’s players to watch out for going into the 2018-19 fantasy hockey season: The 31 in 31 daily segment. This analysis features everything from surefire studs, to sleepers, to prospects that may make an appearance at some point this season. Please let me know if you guys enjoy this type of material! Reminder that the stat totals are from last season.
Gretzky, Lemieux, Forsberg, LaFontaine. That's the list of players in the last 30 seasons to have multiple five assist games in one season. Add Mathew Barzal to the list after Friday night. Barzal became the first rookie in 100 years to have three five point games in one season dishing five assists in the 7-6 win over the Red Wings. That puts Barzal over a point per game on the season and makes him the prohibitive favorite for the Calder (sorry Boeser). Our second podcast ever, which took place before last season, saw Reid and I hype up Barzal for dynasties. Regardless, he's blown away my expectations this season. Now, it's not all rosy for fantasy. The penalty minutes are low, but more importantly the shot rate is barely over two per game. On the other hand, he's 20 years old and is over a point per game, so it's hard to complain. There's a top 20 fantasy player in Barzal's future if he can get that shot rate up. Regardless, he'll be a borderline top 50 player next year solely for the points, and it's only going to get better from there. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Hey, everyone. This is being written before my Buffalo Bills face the Jacksonville Jaguars in the playoffs. I’m predicting 17-14 Bills. As you might know by now, my managing style and what I discuss in my advice column is maximizing games played and putting more skaters on the ice that your opponent. I use data pulled from my own league as well as the two RCL’s to give this idea some supporting data, so let’s hop to it. Using the Active Stats tabs from my most competitive league as well as the two RCL’s, I’ve compiled a table of every matchup we’ve played this year (I finally added weeks 11-13 to my master sheet!) Out of 580 data points, managers who have played ten or more skaters (as of the end of week 13) than their opponents are 65-5-6. 65 wins, 5 losses, 6 ties. Even 5 more players on-ice than your opponent moves your meter considerably closer to the Wins column (from a coin-flip to winning 62% of the time). Yes, some teams might have better players, or might put up more points (G+A), but nothing correlates more accurately to a Win than the difference of games played between teams. Points, goalie starts, you name it… the bottom line is, you want to put more decent skaters on the ice per week than your opponent, and wins will follow.
Winnipeg cooled off the red hot Oilers on Wednesday night winning 4-3. They'd probably trade that win if it meant Mark Scheifele wasn't injured. The Jets superstar center fell awkwardly into the boards in the second period and did not return. This is mostly guesswork on my part but from watching a ton of hockey over the years, it looked like Scheifele severely damaged his shoulder or collarbone. Either way, we could be looking at a significant absence. What does it mean going forward for the Jets in fantasy hockey? I think we see the top two lines get their minutes evened out. Consequently, it would give a small boost to Laine and Ehlers while a slight down tick to Wheeler and Connor. The potential winner is Bryan Little. Little scored a goal in this game on three shots and played over 21 minutes. The Jets lack a true replacement as a top six center so it'll be interesting to see what the Jets lines look like tomorrow in practice and during the next game. My speculation: Little becomes must-own, one other player becomes a streamer (Armia?) and not much else changes. Here's to hoping Scheifele isn't out too long for everyone. Let's take a look at what else happened on Wednesday night after a three day hiatus for the NHL:
Jake DeBrusk was the second of three consecutive first round picks by the Bruins in the 2015 draft. The other two players are still in the AHL developing but DeBrusk is starting to make his mark with the big squad. In the 7-2 beatdown of the Blue Jackets, DeBrusk scored a goal and two assists with four shots and two penalty minutes. He followed that up by scoring the only non-empty net goal against the Sabres on Tuesday. As you can see below, snipe city: That brings DeBrusk up to 8 goals and 10 assists in 28 games with solid penalty minutes and a decent shot rate. The crazy thing is that he's producing despite getting poor minutes (he's averaging 14 per game on the season). DeBrusk has shown me plenty this season to improve his stock in dynasties. He looks like a lock to be a top six player going forward while having plenty of upside from there. In redrafts, I wouldn't hold him right now, solely because of the lack of minutes. That said, DeBrusk is still a great streamer while he's producing. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights in the NHL:
If you follow my writing at all, you know how much I love Brent Burns. I mean, how can you not love this face? He's been among the most disappointing players in fantasy hockey to this point, mostly because he's found a way to have a horrible shooting percentage. Well, since my last set of daily notes, Burns is finally back on track! In his past three games, Burns has three goals and three assists with a whopping 22 shots on goal. There's still plenty of time for Burns to deliver an elite fantasy season with a monster second half. I certainly won't put it past the reigning Norris Trophy winner. I'm going to change things up a bit with this post. Since I'm a bit behind, mainly because of the site going down last Thursday night, I'm going to list every player, by NHL team, that I think is a hold or streamer in standard leagues, guys who become in play with hits, blocks and faceoffs added, and then add some information where necessary. Let's get to it!
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Well, everyone who celebrated last Thursday, you Canadians had theirs last month! In this post, I'm going to focus on the top 50 players from the last week along with some players who returned from injury. The biggest story is Jonathan Marchessault. The best bargain in the NHL (salary of $750k this season), Marchessault has a goal and two assists in each of the last three games. Just like that, he's a top 50 player on the season despite missing a few games! Marchessault now has an absurd stat line of 8/13/+5/16/66/5 in 19 games (for those unfamiliar with my normal format, that's G/A/+/- / PIM / SOG / STP. And somehow he's still available in over 60% of leagues! If you're lucky enough to be in one of those, grab him immediately. Let's take a look at the other players on fire lately:
Minnesota played an excellent game on Thursday booking an impressive 5-2 win over the Blackhawks. Sadly for them, it came at a brutal cost. Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter both left the game injured and were already ruled out for Saturday's game. Coyle was hit in the back of the leg with a shot while Nino looked to suffer an ankle injury that could cost him multiple weeks. Hopefully you have an injured reserve spot for both of these guys but Nino definitely should be held through the injury. With Mikael Granlund out as well, the Wild are getting extremely thin. So who gets a boost? Jason Zucker (1+1, 5 SOG) becomes must-own in 12'ers while Chris Stewart (2G, 5 SOG) moves back on to the streaming radar. We'll have a clearer picture tomorrow but this is a big blow to the Wild and fantasy teams in the short term. Here's what else happened the last two nights around the league:
We've reached the halfway point in my rankings and it's time to approach the finish line. I will keep updating this with info for players as Friday progresses but I wanted to get the top 150 out as soon as possible. Also, sorry for the delay, but the RCL's will launch this coming Monday in the afternoon. I've had a few technical difficulties setting it up but that should be taken care of by then. Without further adieu, here is my top 150:
The Minnesota Wild had an excellent regular season in 2016-17, their first under Bruce Boudreau, finishing with 106 points. Unfortunately for them, they had another first round exit, this time as a prohibitive favorite against the St. Louis Blues. I was all in on the Wild last year in the regular season strictly because of Boudreau; the man is as good as it gets behind the bench. Arguably my biggest call of the year, having Devan Dubnyk 40 spots higher than ADP, worked out perfectly as Dubnyk finished as the #3 overall goalie. With a few players breaking out and others finding their form again, the Wild remain a very interesting team for fantasy purposes. Let's take a look at the plethora of options Boudreau has to work with: