For the second time in a week, Jeff Carter had a monster game. On Thursday, Carter had two goals and an assist with 3 shots in the 3-0 win over the Flames. After this game, Carter passed the 60 point plateau while being +17 and over 3 shots per game on the season. The penalty minutes keep him from the truly elite but Carter will still be firmly in the top 100 going into next season. Keep rolling him for the last 10 days of this season. Here's what else I saw around the league the last two nights:
I’m pretty big on shooting percentage as a solid indicator of whether or not a guy is playing over his head offensively in a given season. Quality of competition is another number that I put a lot of stock in. Combine these two metrics and you’ve got yourself a recipe for understanding some shiz about why a player does what he does and why he won’t do what you’d like him to later. Make sense? No? Perfect! Carl Soderberg (2 A, 1 SOG, even) is a player that a lot of folks were high on going into this season because of a seemingly strong rookie campaign (48 points in 73 games? Yes please!). I submit to you, dear reader, that his campaign was not as solid as it seemed, at least from a fantasy standpoint. Last year he looked great, right? Well, he sported a shooting percent of 20%. That’s way too high and it’s going to come down, and so too should your expectations for him this season. His QoC TOI was 27.7% and he began in the offensive zone 55.5% of the time. That’s what you call “sheltered minutes” and baby, those minutes can be deceiving. Mostly what his QoC TOI and starting zone % have to say is that he spent much of his time playing against the opposition’s third and fourth lines. Third lowest on the B’s, in fact. Sods is a solid support guy with decent offensive upside, but don’t get carried away thinking he’s going to give you more than 15 goals and 40 some points. Yes, that means last season was likely his offensive ceiling. What do you want? The guy is already 28! Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy hockey last night:
Ryan McDonagh (1 G, 2 A, 3 SOG, +3, 2 PIM) lead the way for the streaking Rangers scoring the game winner in OT. He also dished out two primary assists, ended up plus-3 and even threw in a couple PIM to make the game complete. I didn’t think he’d get there, but McDonagh is looking at breaking the 50-point/15 goal markers this season and that easily sits him among the league’s best fantasy defenseman. To give you an idea of just how quickly McDonagh has found his way into the ranks of the elite, chew on this factoid; with 13 goals in 73 games so far this season he has eclipsed his total from his previous three seasons, where he scored 12 goals over 169 games. That’s no joke! Does it mean he’s a flash in the pan? That he’ll regress back to the mean starting next year? I don’t think so. I think what we’re seeing here is a premiere defensemen coming into his own and he should, at the very least, maintain this kind of production for seasons to come. The coaching change is a big help here; John Tortarella put McD out there for less than a minute, on average, of power play time per game. You could justify that and say it’s because he was young, but come on, less than a minute? Alain Vigneault puts him out there for an average or 2:53, and he’s cashing in on that like whoa. If you were lucky enough to grab him in a keeper league on the cheap this year, enjoy the ride, because he’s not going to be cheap again until he’s aging and fading. So why does this matter right now? Could a guy like this possible be available? Why yes, yes he can! Try 31% of Yahoo leagues. He’s owned in 100% of ESPN leagues, so that does nothing for you ESPN folks, but I added him on two of my Yahoo teams just for the playoff run. Seriously. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in the world o’ fantasy hockey last night:
For those of you watched the All Star “fantasy” draft I commend you. Nothing like 40 incredibly awkward handshake-hugs between a bunch of guys who try and kill each other every night. Please, blog, may I have some more?