The Oilers have taken a massive hit lately missing both of their superstar centers, but on Saturday, one returned and picked up right where he left off. In the Battle of Alberta, Leon Draisaitl dominated, scoring two goals and an assist with eight shots in his first game in almost two weeks. It's been a three way battle for the top forward spot on the season between MacKinnon, Kucherov, and Draisaitl. Draisaitl's shot rate resurgence to go with him blowing away the rest of the league in the goals department gives him a real case for #1. Regardless, he's the Hart favorite and has played his way back into tier one going forward. Let's take a look at some players around the league that have had a value change recently:
Who knew that McDavid and Draisaitl injuries would actually help Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? It's been a very disappointing season overall, but RNH is closing in a big way. On Saturday, he scored a hat trick on five shots, playing over 23 minutes in the 5-4 win over the Kraken. That was his third three-point game in the last four, making RNH a short term hold while he's hotter than a pistol. At the least, if he's available in your league, I would be sure to grab him for his Wednesday-Thursday back-to-back against the Stars and Kraken this week. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
Things are shaking out differently than I expected in Detroit. I thought Petr Mrazek was brought in to be the backup to Talbot, but he’s started three consecutive games. After losing to his former team, the Hurricanes, on Friday 4-2 (saved 28/31 shots), he came back with an 18 save shutout victory in the 3-0 win over the Golden Knights. Please, blog, may I have some more?
The big man has caught fire for Washington. Aliaksei Protas had his first career hat trick on Tuesday against the Ducks, scoring three goals on six shots. He has seven points in his last three games, bringing him to 28+3o in 65 games. Even with a poor shot rate, he's a no brainer hold, especially considering his +39 rating. I was absolutely shocked to see that he's available in over 60% of leagues still. Even the shot rate is starting to improve, as Protas has 26 SOG in his last ten games. Protas is still only 24 years old and has greatly increased his stock in dynasties as well. Yes, the shooting percentage has to regress over time. After all, he had only 6 goals last season shooting 5.3%, and now he's well over 20%. Even with that impending regression, he's getting to the right areas and Washington has turned into a powerhouse. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
I attribute a lot of it to randomness, but the new coach bump seems to happen over and over again. Right now, it's happening in Detroit, where Todd McLellan has the Red Wings on a seven game winning streak shortly after taking over the team. Given the ugliness of the Eastern Conference Wild Card race, that's vaulted Detroit right back into contention. A few guys have been thriving for Detroit, but I want to focus on Marco Kasper. The former eighth overall pick is getting his first real opportunity in a big role, playing first line minutes with Larkin and Raymond. In both games over the weekend, Kasper had a goal and an assist, with five shots between the two games. He's getting second power play unit time as well, which is enough to bump Kasper into the middling to solid streamer range for the time being. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
On New Year's Eve, I watched the Leafs - Islanders game in entirety. In the midst of a rough stretch, Matthew Knies stood out. Despite staying off the scoresheet, he was buzzing throughout the game, putting five shots on net in over 20 minutes of ice time. After being a passive shooter for almost two months, Knies was gunning regularly, which was encouraging. It felt like a big game was on the horizon, but we didn't get a big game. We got a massive game. Knies had one of the games of the season so far, scoring a hat trick against the Bruins. That's not all though. Knies also had two assists, six shots on goal, two penalty minutes, and had a +6 rating in the 6-4 win. Wow. He followed that up with another goal against the Flyers on Sunday. The return of Matthews can only help Knies. He's locked into a large role at even strength, and while he's not on PP1, Knies has played his way onto the fringe of 12'ers. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
After blowing out the Senators on Tuesday, I was fully expecting the Sabres to lay an egg in Manhattan on Thursday. Instead, they scored on the first shift of the game and didn't look back. The Sabres won 6-1, with all twelve forwards getting at least one point in the game, just the second time that's happened in team history. Besides the top line continuing to dominate, the big story here is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. UPL saved 25 of 26 shots on Thursday, with the lone goal a completely fluky deflection that looped over him. Based on expected goals metrics, this was a second monster game in a row for Luukkonen, with the Detroit game before that also a solid performance. He's getting back to the goalie that he was last season, which makes him a solid #2 in fantasy. The upside is there for a bottom end #1 because UPL is the clear #1 with Levi the backup. In fact, if Anaheim waives Reimer when Gibson comes back shortly, I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Sabres claim Reimer back and send Levi down I-90 to Rochester. Let's take a look at what else happened the last two nights:
It's been an incredible start for the Jets, and a big part of it is that the Jets coaching staff is finally playing their elite winger on the top unit. Nikolaj Ehlers had a hat trick and an assist with five shots in the 6-2 win over Columbus, before a goal and an assist with three shots in the 7-4 win over the Lightning. Ehlers has a whopping 8-9 in 12 games, dominating at even strength with solid PPP. This is while playing with a second line center who is clearly below average. What is Winnipeg makes an upgrade on Namesnikov eventually? I don't think Ehlers needs it, but it couldn't hurt. Regardless, career highs across the board are a near-certainty, and he could even beat the paces from his 28+27 in 62 games from three seasons ago. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
It wasn't that long ago that Kyle Connor was coming off a 47 goal, 93 point season with over four shots per game. He was a borderline first round pick going into the 2022-23 season, and while he hasn't been a big disappointment, we haven't see him return to that level. It's only the first month of the season, but Connor is currently the #2 skater in fantasy behind MacKinnon. Connor had a goal and two assists, all in the first period, with four shots on goal in the 6-2 win over the Red Wings. Connor has had at least one point in every game so far this season, with a whopping 9+8 with 40 SOG in ten games. While he won't maintain this pace, the four shots per game is crucial. It will make up for inevitable shooting regression, especially for the Jets on the whole with regards to their power play. Perhaps this run, with Connor reaching 500 points in his career already, will lead him to get the credit he deserves for being one of the best offensive players in the league. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's not every day that we see a hat trick from a defenseman, but we got one on Tuesday night. The Kraken destroyed the Canadiens from the get go, and Brandon Montour really dug their grave. Seattle's big free agent acquisition had a natural hat trick on four shots, adding an assist and two PIM in the 8-2 beatdown. I was fairly bullish on Montour going into the season, and he's delivered nine points in ten games so far, with over three shots per game. The main reason I wasn't all in on Montour, as you can see in my preseason rankings, is that I was unsure on how Disco Dan would set everything up for Seattle. Well, Dunn ended up getting hurt right away and ended up on LTIR, alleviating any concerns. Montour should be an elite #2 in 12'ers for the time being, with the upside of being a #1. Let's take a look at what else happened over the two nights:
No Barkov, no Tkachuk, no problem for Florida on Monday and Tuesday. They posted two consecutive 4-3 wins over Boston and Columbus respectively, with Sam Reinhart leading the way. Reinhart scored two goals on Monday against the Bruins before scoring a goal and two assists against the Blue Jackets. It's an excellent start to the season for Reino despite missing his most common linemate. I was still aggressive in my Reinhart ranking despite the regression that was coming because I've always believed in his ability. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a career high in assists to counter the drop off in goals. He played over 21 minutes on Tuesday and as long as the other two are out, I expect Maurice to lean on Reinhart heavily. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
I can't believe the season is already starting today with my beloved Sabres taking on the Devils in Prague. I've gone through all of my rankings at this point to provide you with assistance for your drafts. Now, before every team starts their season over the next week, it's time to make some bold predictions for the upcoming season. For those who haven't read this type of post in the past, these are meant to be bold. If I hit three of them, I will be quite happy. On the good side last season, I predicted that Talbot would be a top ten goalie and that Gostisbehere would be more valuable than Seider in non-banger leagues despite going 100 picks after him. On the bad side, I predicted that Vejmelka would be a top 15 goalie, Devon Levi would get Calder votes, and Binnington would carry negative value. Let's get to it!
