Good Evening! I’m Lackeydrinksonme!

It’s the third issue of my weekly long-run streamer column. I’m here to offer some pickups for the short-slate games in the upcoming week, with a focus on putting more players on the ice than your opponent. ESPN has changed everything, so I don’t have “Games Started” data for the 18-19 season, but bear in mind that the odds of coming out with a win are strongly related to the number of players you put on the ice. It’s worth taking a moment to go day by day to add up starts to make sure you’re on top.

If you thought you drafted great but you’re 0-3, don’t fear just yet. I have plenty of stories across my years of fantasy with people starting 0-5, 0-6, and once 0-7 who still made the playoffs. Maybe look to buy low on breakout candidates like Clayton Keller, or sell high on some name value that you aren’t quite trusting. Also grab Juuse Saros right now. Do it.

Out of the 580 fantasy matchups I have recorded, teams who put at least 10 more skaters on the ice than their opponents are 65-5-6. Those who have gotten at least 5 more skaters won 62% of the time. This column will focus on getting additional player starts several times a week, especially on days with fewer games, and maximizing player usage so as to not leave points on the bench. If you see a guy you like, who is starting this week, pick him up with the objective of getting an extra 2-4 decent starts a week.

Let’s get to our weekly streamers to get some skaters onto the ice!!

Colorado Avalanche (M/W/F/St)

One day off from being a perfect short-slate schedule Colorado is figuring things out with MacKinnon and Landeskog leading the charge. If you don’t have either of these two, here are some options to roll out for three days and play to plug holes over the weekend.

Erik Johnson – Currently leading the team in Time On Ice and Corsi For. I like Johnson as a versatile D-man who is clearly getting some looks. 5 Assists, 19 SOG, and 11 Hits make him a brilliant add for the off days this week.

Carl Soderberg – With around 15 minutes of TOI a game and nearly two of those on the power-play, I’m ok with a look at Soderberg who is currently owned in around 4% of ESPN leagues. He isn’t really a candidate for positive regression and doesn’t have amazing linemates, but there’s power-play time and shots and hits.

Tyson Jost – Probably not on anybody’s radar, Jost is seeing more than four minutes of power-play time per game and at the time of writing is only owned in .7% of ESPN leagues. He has fine possession numbers, but maybe lacking some shots. If you’re looking very deep, hopefully he’s available.

Winnipeg Jets

Adam Bailey and Brandon Tanev – Featured on the same line almost ¾ of the time, Tanev and Bailey take a ton of shots and dish out a ton of hits, each. They have better possession numbers than Wheeler, Sheifele, and Connor, and each has around 15:00 of ice time. Yikes, if they keep this up and you grab the pair, the points are a gamble but the counting stats will be there.

Josh Morrissey – With ownership on the rise, he might have been snapped up. It’s worth taking a look at Morrissey who has seven points so far while hitting more than 23 minutes of ice time a game, with more than a minute on the lethal power play. Very nice.

Carolina Hurricanes OR Detroit Red Wings (M/F/Su)

Carolina is playing at a level people didn’t expect them to and Detroit is… well, where we expected Ottawa to be. Monday/Friday/Sunday is an interesting schedule with a lot of dead space. The strategy here might be to stream or hold for M-Th, then grabbing someone from CAR/DET just for Friday and Sunday, letting your base team run through the first four days of the week.

Warren Foegele – Still owned in only 1% of ESPN leagues. Foegele is an obvious streaming choice and might be worth picking up for the entire week, considering CAR’s first game is against DET. Foegele’s possession numbers are awesome, and with 15:00 of ice time a game is certainly worth a sexy wink and a nod until he cools off.

Gustav Nyquist – Nyquist is in line for a career year, and this shouldn’t be the first place you are hearing this, but on the chance that it is, give him a long hard look. Detroit isn’t and will not be great, but Nyquist plays with Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha, two incredible forwards who are also looking for their breakout. Nyquist has great possession numbers and should contribute across categories.

Jaccob Slavin – Leading the Canes in TOI, Slavin isn’t an amazing choice, but is worth grabbing for the weekend games against SJS and NYI (at home). All of CAR have terrific possession numbers, (mostly based of SOG, for people who don’t know) but with Slavin’s presence on ice and his own contributions in SOG, HITs, and PPTOI, he’s certainly worth a look as a late effort over the weekend.

I’m planning on doing a deep dive Wednesday night (I hope!!), so will have an article up then and also a continuation of this series next Monday. Feel free to ask any questions you might have, and good luck!!

 

  1. Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva says:
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    Hey man, can you help me?
    I recieved this offer, he gives me: Rantanen, Boedker and A. Martinez
    I give: Zucker, Yandle and Donskoi
    16 team league
    Catergories are G, A, PIM, PPG, PPA, SHG, SHA, FOW, FOL, HAT, SOG, HIT, BLK.
    BLK and SOG gives the same points.

      • Lackeydrinksonme

        Lackeydrinksonme says:
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        @Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva: Hey, man, this is a headscratcher. I can’t figure out what this guy’s angle might be, giving up basically Rantanen for more ice time (Yandle) and shots (Zucker). Then when you look at Hits/GP and Blks/GP, Martinez is the leader by a long shot. FO are a toss-up, but Rantanen has the volume.

        Why does this guy want Zucker, Yandle, and Donskoi? Go for the trade before he asks himself the same question, because just the base three (no Nichushkin) is a huge win.

        • Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva says:
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          @Lackeydrinksonme:
          Done!
          Thank u man!

          • marcokirillov says:
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            @Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva:
            Sorry to bother you again, have another possible deal.
            I give Larkin (or Karlsson), Skinner and Trouba for Kadri, Kovalchuck and Ekblad.
            Does this makes sense? Any good?

            • Lackeydrinksonme

              Lackeydrinksonme says:
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              @marcokirillov: it’s no problem at all!

              I’ll assume you mean William Karlsson and not Erik. Either way I dont see this as a positive for you, you have some good scorers with Larkin and Skinner and a consistent Hit guy in Trouba who can also pull down some shots and points… for Kadri (15:00 TOI) Kovalchuk (who knows) and Ekblad (good for a hit or two every game). No way am I taking this.

              • Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva says:
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                @Lackeydrinksonme:
                Advice taken.
                I like pretty much the way you think, I know nothing about hockey. Just use some raw draft advices, DFS projections…
                But you seem to be number focused, thats a big deal for me, I cant really read it.

  2. bananafactory says:
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    drop gostisbehere or ekman-larsson for morissey?

    • Lackeydrinksonme

      Lackeydrinksonme says:
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      @bananafactory: Hey man, just seeing this, sorry. I would certainly keep Ghost, and it’s a toss-up for OEL/Morrissey who sees less PPTOI but works with a better team overall. It all depends on where you see ARI going now that Galchenyuk is back. A little better? Probably… so I guess I’d hold OEL.

  3. The Harrow says:
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    are standard leagues the “one win” type in espn hockey? that’s sillyness, it just ups the luck factor already well involved in fantasy. if yr playing 12 categories the team that goes 0-12 shouldn’t get the same 0-1 that a team that went 5-6-1 went, nor a team that went 12-0 get the same 1-0 that the team that went 6-5-1 got. plus the team that went 5-6-1 often is very close to a win, whereas the team that went 0-12 certainly almost never is.

    • Lackeydrinksonme

      Lackeydrinksonme says:
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      @The Harrow:
      This is true, and there are also roto leagues that count stats throughout the year. The work I’ve done counted points, H2H category, and H2H matchup leagues, giving the team on top at the end of the week a W. It’s not the best system, but regardless of your league type it’s important to be playing skaters, and this column gives you options to grab 2-4 extra games with one waiver move instead of 1 game with a single move.

      • The Harrow says:
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        @Lackeydrinksonme: i mean the better h2h version, “h2h each category” and yeah i know, i wasn’t disputing that having the most skaters per week is optimal where possible, that’s just mathematically true (other than plus/minus). wasn’t quibbling with you, just it’s stupid that standard leagues anywhere have the “one win” over “each cat” for h2h. obviously you can pick which you are playing in, just weird that the inertia has left that be the standard and thus likely more common league type for h2h’s. this would be true for points or category h2h’s. ok, i guess

        “h2h category” must in espn match up with what i’m calling “h2h each category” whereas “h2h matchup” must match up with what i’m calling “h2h one win”.

        • Lackeydrinksonme

          Lackeydrinksonme says:
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          @The Harrow: I feel you. I can’t play in a league where your final standings end up like 141-120-5, that’s crazy to me. I wanted to see how many skaters it took to feel like you could guarantee a “win”, and it’s around 10… but now ESPN has removed this tool and it sucks

          • The Harrow says:
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            @Lackeydrinksonme: i’ve seen around here espn f’d up a bunch of stuff this year, they got very lazy, see the changes to MLB box scores literally done in the middle of this season (julyish i think). way less info on the box scores than was done literally the previous day to when they changed it. why is it “crazy’ to see a bigger number when having that bigger number gives a more accurate representation of how people did. i think we found here one exact version of the inertia in people’s minds that makes the “one win” a standard thing right there if true (since it’s not a reason, just a prejudice)

            it’s like saying a pink car would save you thousands of dollars in gas (somehow) a year, but few buy them since “yuck i don’t like pink cars”.

            • Lackeydrinksonme

              Lackeydrinksonme says:
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              @The Harrow: I’ve never contacted ESPN fantasy support so many times in one year. Baseball was awful this year.

              I guess it might be ‘more accurate’ to say you’re 140-120-16 or whatever, but it’s hard to get a quick look at the standings to see your work cut out for you. In the long run it feels less competitive to be behind after two weeks, say, 7-10-3, when the leader is 10-8-2. You could just be 0-2 behind 2-0, and the entire script can flip if you grab 6 categories in your next matchup and they only grab 4. This gets even worse with season-long roto leagues, which would seem to be ‘the most accurate’ league by your valuing bigger numbers for a representation of how people are doing.

              To each their own, man, you see some crazy leagues out there with crazy settings, like NL-only 2 catcher roto leagues or all-wide-receiver leagues. I’m not sure what you mean by things being a reason or a prejudice, but I tend to try and work with different scoring formats to help people put as many players on the ice as they can, which we agreed is valuable. .

  4. dubjay says:
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    Hey Lackey,
    So someone just dropped Pietrangelo in my 12 team roto league. Pretty sure i have to pick him up. My D is currently Subban, Dumba, OEL and Trouba. Im guessing that Trouba is the drop there even with OELs slow start. May try again to package Trouba and Simmonds for an upgrade at LW.
    What kind of value do you think Darling will have when hes ready to play? I picked him up to plug into my IR slot but dont know where he sits in the pecking order in Carolina? 1a? 1b? Not like Mrazek or McIlhenny has stolen the job

    • Lackeydrinksonme

      Lackeydrinksonme says:
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      @dubjay:
      Hey man, I tried to look at this quick before I catch my bus home (car’s in the shop). Trouba is probably a drop, his PPTOI has tanked and you want Pietrangelo’s 3:47. Wowzers. SOG for both aren’t great, 12 for P and 1 for T. This is a win while Morrissey takes TOI in WPG.

      I’m not sure I’m a fan of picking up a CAR goalie. They’ve gotta slow down at some point, their possession and shot numbers are insane and it has to return at least a little bit to the mean. That being said, I might roll Darling out when he’s ready (and they’ll give him a try), but would keep him on a short leash. Very short.

      • Lackeydrinksonme

        Lackeydrinksonme says:
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        @Lackeydrinksonme:
        *12 for Pietrangelo and 15 for Trouba

        • dubjay says:
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          @Lackeydrinksonme:
          So I sent out a Darling/Simmonds for Panarin trade offer. He countered with Simmonds/Dumba for Panarin/Shattenkirk. Really want Panarin but dont really want to lose Dumba. countered with Trouba/Simmonds for Panarin. Crossing my fingers he bites. Then hopefully i can snag Pietrangelo off of waivers. Not sure though with waiver priority 7

          • dubjay says:
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            @dubjay:
            He bit! Simmonds/Trouba for Panarin.

            • dubjay says:
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              @dubjay:
              So now whos the drop to pickup Pietrangelo? A.Lee, Larkin or PL Dubois?

              • The Harrow says:
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                @dubjay: you won’t need to drop anybody with that trade happening, you’ll have an open roster spot.

                • dubjay says:
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                  @The Harrow:
                  I wish it worked that way Harrow. The trade wont go through til Saturday. Pietrangelo will clear waivers on Thursday. So I will need to drop someone

                  • Lackeydrinksonme

                    Lackeydrinksonme says:
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                    @dubjay: If it has to be one of those three, I’d give a coin flip to Lee or Dubois, but I would keep Larkin.

  5. Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva says:
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    Hey man, a guy in my league is kinda mad with Bobrovsky and wnats to trade him (although he is pretty much fixed on rankings like ESPN where we play), anyway, I have Dubnyk and he wants him. But I can’t figure out some trade that doenst look too lopsided and that I have an edge, Anyway, here are my guys:
    C- Larkin, Karlsson, T.Johnson, Eichel, Backlund
    LW – Skinner, Perron, Sheary, Boedker, L.Eriksson
    RW – Fischer, Rantanen, Noesen, E.Rodrigues, Nichushkin, Rattie
    D- Hedman, Ghost, C.MIller, Trouba, N. Schmidt, Werenski, Lajoie, Martinez
    G- Dubnyk, Bishop

    His guys:
    C- Kadri, Henrique, Krejci, Kesler, Laughton
    LW – Kovalchuck, Beauvillier, A.Bjork, C.WIlson, B.Tkachuck, Ladd
    RW – Radulov, Dadonov, Nino, Goldobin, Kapanen, Kase
    D- Burns, Josi, Ekblad, Manson, Lindholm, Pettersson, Ristolainen, Hainsey
    G- Bob, Schneider

    Anything I can exploit? Any holes I have to fix? Any good bait? Anything that will fly under the radar? Just anything… I’m really clueless
    As always, thanks bro.

    • Lackeydrinksonme

      Lackeydrinksonme says:
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      @Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva: You could probably sell on Karlsson, as I’m not sure anyone expects him to repeat, but I would hold onto Dubnyk for the time being. I would hold onto Bishop, too… so what I’m saying is, sit tight for the time being. This guy looks like he drafted net-out, so your team looks a little better overall.

      • Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva says:
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        @Lackeydrinksonme:
        Another guy, he has Pacioretty, Mittelstadt, Svechnikov and Dahlin.
        I guess these are good players and wanted to make a proposal.
        Was thinking of giving Perron for Pac, maybe Werenski for Dahlin, Backlund for Mittelstadt and some kind of trash for Svech (as you can see, I have lot of crap as RW).
        What do you think.

          • Lackeydrinksonme

            Lackeydrinksonme says:
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            @Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva:

            Shoot, I missed your previous comment, too!
            This is basically a trade of Werenski for Stone, as the other two are really non-factors for fantasy (depending on the depth of your league). Werenski has some question marks now that Jones is back, and Stone is on Ottawa but they’re playing with some great energy. Your D-men are solid, so you might as well go for it.

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