If you didn’t catch Part One of this two part series, you can check that out here. Today, I am going to look at the Western Conference, focusing on one player for each team that has been a big disappointment, or blown expectations out of the water. In each case, I’ll talk about what’s caused their start, and whether or not I’m expecting it to change for better or worse. Let’s get to it!
WINNIPEG JETS – Neal Pionk
You can look at any number of Jets who are off to a hot start, just like the team is as a whole. However, Pionk stands above the rest. Pionk’s career high in points is 45, which came in his first season in Winnipeg five seasons ago when he ran PP1. The last three seasons, he’s had 33-34 points. He’s already halfway to that with 17 (3+14) in 19 games. In terms of non-points categories, all of it looks sustainable. He’s always been a hits/blocks machine. In terms of points, it’s certainly going to fall off. With Pionk on the ice, the Jets are shooting 16.6%. I’ve never seen anything like that, even over a 19 game sample. The one encouraging thing is his primary assists are what’s skyrocketed, not secondary. Even with this head start, I’m not convinced he’s going to top 50 points, but Pionks’ secondary contributions keep him as a hold.
MINNESOTA WILD – Joel Eriksson Ek
The Wild have been a pleasant surprise, but JEEK is off to a slow start with 5+3 in 15 games. There are a few concerning signs here. One, his minutes are down 3 per game from last year. Two, he’s down about one shot on goal per game, taking him from an elite shot rate to an average rate for a forward. On the bright side, JEEK is playing on the first line with Kaprizov and Boldy right now which should get him going. After getting past the injury, I have to think the minutes steadily uptick, so despite what looks like negative signs, I’d actually be trying to buy JEEK.
DALLAS STARS – Jason Robertson
You can list anyone from the Dallas first line, but Robertson was ranked the highest in preseason so I’m going with him. I can dig deep here, but this one is really simple. Robertson has 1 PPP after 28 last season and 41 the year before. Do you think that’s going to last? Of course not. I have to think that he gets better at even strength too, but any semblance of power play competence will get Robertson fairly close to last season’s level. I think we can kiss another 100 point season goodbye, but around point per game is still in play. I would stay the course with Robertson, Hintz, and Johnston.
COLORADO AVALANCHE – Casey Mittelstadt
Mittelstadt couldn’t have started the season any better. Even with slowing down the past couple weeks, he has 18 points in 19 games. You can look at this two fold. On one hand, he’s playing with much better wingers right now than he’s had all season, and that’s not going to change as the team gets healthier. However, the health of Colorado has taken Mittelstadt off the top power play unit, where he has nine of his points. His minutes are starting to have a slight downtick as well. He’s still on the fringe, but in 12’ers, I don’t think he’s an automatic hold despite the gaudy point total.
ST. LOUIS BLUES – Justin Faulk
There’s not an obvious candidate for the Blues. I chose Faulk because he’s sitting on five points despite playing 23 minutes a night and getting top PP time. To be blunt, he just doesn’t have much left in the tank at this point. The hits and blocks are fine, but I have no interest in Faulk, even in deep leagues. It should only be a matter of time until he loses that PP1 spot and then his fantasy value will be near zero.
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB – Connor Ingram
I was going to talk about Crouse, but we kind of know the deal there. I generally haven’t used goalies in this series, but Ingram stands out for the wrong reasons. He has an .871 save percentage over 13 games. He’s dead last in the entire NHL in goals saved above expected, meaning that he’s been the worst goalie in the league so far this season. Also, in 7 games, Vejmelka has a .915 sv%. Ingram’s performance last season came mostly out of nowhere, as did Vejmelka’s disappointment. I doubt you’d get much for him, but I have no interest in Ingram at this point. If anything, I’d be targeting Vejmelka in deeper leagues thinking he can get the job back and run with it. He’s not even a bad spec add in 12’ers.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS – Jonathan Marchessault
Stammer is the obvious talking point so I decided to talk about the other free agent winger signing. Both were struggling so badly that Brunette decided to separate them and put Marchessault on the third line. The good news is Marchessault is still getting three shots on goal per game, which means clear shooting regression is coming. I dug a little deeper and saw this remarkable stat. At 5 on 5 with Marchessault on the ice, the Predators are shooting 0.8%. They have literally one goal in almost 125 shots on goal! Safe to say that it won’t be staying this bad. He’s on the fringe still and if you need the shots, I’m fine with stubbornly holding Marchessault.
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – Petr Mrazek
Like the Blues, there’s not really a clear candidate here. You can say Bedard, but the shooting is going to fix itself. I’m looking at Mrazek because he’s sitting at a 2.79/.906, which is pretty good considering the team in front of him. If you look at GSAA, he’s a little above break even. What that says to me is that the numbers aren’t be caused by Mrazek playing at a unsustainable level. The Blackhawks are selling out defensively, which has put Mrazek on the fantasy radar. He’s getting good volume as well, so he’s on the fringe of 12’ers and a clear hold in anything deeper.
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Adin Hill
Barbashev or Dorofeyev could be discussed here, but I have a ton of concern with Vegas goalies (Samsonov included). Both goalies are below a .900 sv%, with Hill sitting at .885 with a 3.16 GAA. The big problem here is that Hill has been right around break even in terms of GSAA (he’s 1 goal below ranking 35th of 59 goalies who have played 5+ games). That shows that Vegas has completely flipped from a defensive strategy to an offensive one, exposing their goaltending. Maybe it flips back, but it’s hard to see Hill being more than a middling to bottom end #2 goalie in 12’ers solely for his winds.
CALGARY FLAMES – Yegor Sharangovich
Sharangovich broke out in his first season with Calgary, scoring 31 goals and 28 assists, both easily career highs. This season, he’s only played 12 games, but he has two goals and zero assists. Sharangovich is actually playing more than one minute per game on average more than last season, so it’s not a usage issue. Calgary is shooting 3.6% at even strength with him on the ice, and he still has his first power play role, so I’m expecting Sharangovich to turn it around to get back into the elite streamer range.
LOS ANGELES KINGS – Alex Laferriere
Lafreriere received quality opportunities last season as a rookie, finishing with 12+11. Now, he’s delivering with 9+6 already. The shot rate has taken a jump to average for a forward as well. Laferriere is locked into top power play time, and his ice time continues to increase. The shooting percentage will regress for the worst so I’m not saying Laferriere is pushing towards being a hold, but I think he settles near an elite streamer.
EDMONTON OILERS – Zach Hyman
Nobody expected a 54 goal repeat, but 3+5 in 20 games certainly wasn’t in the cards. I still would be holding Hyman and expect it to turn around sooner than later. He’s still getting massive minutes, including top power play time on a unit that is bound to get better. The team shooting percentage with Hyman on the ice is bound to increase. The main thing for me is that Hyman is still 7th in the entire league in expected goals. The only guys ahead of him are Hischier, McDavid, Rantanen, Kaprizov, Tavares, and Bratt. He’s 6.3 goals below expected already which is wild. Hyman is due for a goal scoring binge sooner than later.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS – Filip Hronek
I’m kind of stretching here as the Canucks players have more or less been within expectations. Hronek is a bit disappointing, as his assists have dropped off and his shot rate has plummeted. That puts him on the fringe because it’s hard to hold anyone shooting one time per game with minimal power play time. The one thing that could lead to a turnaround is that Hronek is absolutely dominating his even strength minutes in terms of possession. For those of you that have him in deeper leagues, I would probably just ride it out.
SEATTLE KRAKEN – Joey Daccord
Daccord is trying to show that last season wasn’t a fluke. He’s currently the #6 overall goalie with a 2.51/.918. He’s actually third in the entire league in GSAA showing that he’s playing at an elite level. While Daccord has solidified himself as a #2 in 12’ers, I’m not sure he gets to being a #1 over the rest of the season. I’m a little bit concerned that if his level of plays drops a bit, we’re looking around a 2.75/.910 stat line, which is still good, but not top end in fantasy. If you drafted him, you definitely made out, but don’t expect this level of consistency to last.
ANAHEIM DUCKS – Trevor Zegras
Outside of Dostal, it’s been a ton of disappointment in Anaheim. Think about how bad it would be if Dostal wasn’t the best goalie in the league in GSAA by over 5 goals already! Zegras is sitting with 2+4 in 18 games, a far cry from 61 and 65 points in his last two full seasons. Zegras scored a goal the other day and looked completely disinterested in being out there. He’s just going through the motions and if I was a team in need of scoring, I would target him in a trade on the hopes of getting his career back on track. For now, I’m not even considering him for fantasy.
SAN JOSE SHARKS – Mikael Granlund
*Granlund did leave the game Wednesday night due to injury. This was written before that happened. Here’s to hoping it’s nothing serious.
Granlund is at a point per game playing over 21 minutes per game. It’s been amazing to see Granlund get his career back on track to where he was in his Minnesota days. Honestly, all of this looks sustainable and I’m completely buying into this lasting. The one concern that I ahve going forward is that Granlund could be traded. Let alone that his workload is going to drastically drop (and he appears to be one of those guys who thrives in a bigger role but struggles in a smaller one), but we’ve seen him massively struggle on certain teams. If he stays on the Sharks, Granlund could be a borderline top 50 player. If he goes, I doubt he’ll even be a hold in 12’ers. It’s hard to imagine somebody else having more variance in their outcome depending on trade than Granlund.
Three Point Challenge: We will do the Three Point Challenge with this Thursday’s games. For those of you that are new here, you pick a player to get three points in one of the games on Thursday. You can’t pick somebody who is Top 10 in the league in points. Until the end of the month, we will use last season’s top ten, so you can’t pick Kucherov, MacKinnon, McDavid, Panarin, Pastrnak, Matthews, Draisaitl, Rantanen, Miller, or Nylander. I have two correct picks, Saints has three, and a couple people have one. I’ll go with Point against the Blue Jackets.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back on Friday recapping the action from tonight. As always, feel free to ask any questions, give any comments, or leave any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
Update – I’m quite sick so no notes on Thursday’s games. Any questions, ask them per usual. I’ll be back Monday
