Stock Up/Down And Sustainability: Part One

We’re just over a month into the season now, so I figured this was a good point to look at some surprises and disappointments around the NHL.  I’m going to look at one player on each team that has been better or worse than we expected, looking at what has happened so far, and what to expect from them going forward.  I’ve received plenty of questions talking about players that are struggling so I figured it was best to give longer thoughts about how panicked I am, or how much I believe in the hot start.  Today, I’m going to focus on the Eastern Conference while the Western Conference will come later in the week.  Let’s get to it!

FLORIDA PANTHERS – Matthew Tkachuk

While the Panthers have picked up where they left off, Tkachuk has been struggling.  He missed some time early in the season due to illness, and his play hasn’t gotten back up to standard.  What’s more concerning than the 11 points in 13 games is his shot rate.  2.5 shots per game is a massive drop for the 3.5-4 shots per game range he was previously.  The minutes are at a low point as well.  The one thing that I will say is that Tkachuk has zero power play assists, which simply isn’t going to last.  He’s had over 20 PPA in each season in Florida, so while I think his 109 points from two seasons ago is an impossibility, a repeat of last season is possible.  My panic meter is about a 4 out of 10, when 10 being the highest.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – Anthony Stolarz

Stolarz has been a top five fantasy goalie so far, while being close to a top ten goalie in GSAA.  The one problem with Stolarz is he’s never started more than 28 games in a season.  We have no idea how he’s going to last throughout the season.  On a per-game basis, my level of belief is around an 8.  In terms of this sustaining over a full season with a full allotment of games, I’m around a 3.  Woll has been playing fine, and I fully expect him to keep this a platoon.  That’s assuming health, which is a massive if, as both of them can easily go down at any time given their history.

BOSTON BRUINS – Elias Lindholm

The Bruins gave Lindholm a massive deal in the offseason, with Lindholm getting 7.75m for the maximum seven years.  He managed to get only 9 points in 17 games and a dreadful 1.5 shots per game.  This is despite getting top power play time and a top six role.  My level of panic is pushing a ten here, to the point that I don’t even want to stream Lindholm in 12’ers.  I’m sure he will have some decent streaks given his role, but his struggles are massive right now.  He can’t drive play against top competition, which is a big reason why Boston is 8-8-3 right now.  If you’ve been stubborn holding onto Lindholm, I think you can safely let him go.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Anthony Cirelli

Cirelli set a new career high in points last season with 45, and he’s looking to blow that out of the water this year.  Cirelli is sitting at a point per game through 16 games.  On one hand, I don’t see any chance Cirelli can maintain this pace without the top power play time. Tampa is also shooting 17.5% with him on the ice, a number that is beyond unsustainable.  On the other hand, I’m buying him blowing his previous career highs away.  Cirelli is pushing 19 minutes per game, and has been over 20 for each of the last five games.  His line, led by Hagel, is driving play despite a difficult workload.  The shot rate is poor, but he should do enough to be on the fringe for the rest of the season, while being a hold in leagues without SOG.

BUFFALO SABRES – Dylan Cozens

While the first and third lines have been fantastic for Buffalo, the second line has been an unmitigated disaster.  Quinn has been the bigger problem, but Cozens has played poorly as well.  He has 3+4 in 18 games.  My panic meter is around a five here, despite it looking worse at first glance.  The shot rate is excellent and the PIM/hits are great.  The poor plus-minus is partially being driven by horrible goaltending with him on the ice, with Sabres goalies having an .844 sv% with Cozens out there.  He’s been one of the unluckiest players in terms of expected goals.  The problem is that Quinn is a boat anchor right now, and they’re stubbornly keeping him in the lineup.  I’m interested to see what happens over the next week in California, but I have Cozens in the solid streamer range with upside if a line shuffle gets him going.

OTTAWA SENATORS – Linus Ullmark 

Ullmark was the big offseason acquisition for Ottawa, getting the bag before the season started.  He’s started nine games, going 4-4-1 with a 2.77 GAA.  That’s not ideal, but also not the end of the world.  The problem is that Ullmark has a .890 save percentage.  We knew that he was going to take a step back in his ratios leaving the fantastic Boston system.  We certainly weren’t expecting an .890 though.  To be honest, this is actually encouraging to me.  Even on dreadful Buffalo teams, he was never this bad in save percentage.  Assuming that gets back to that level at least, the GAA is going to be borderline elite.  Ullmark should still end up as a top end #2 with the chance of being a #1 in 12’ers.  If anything, I’d target him before trying to sell him off.

DETROIT RED WINGS – Patrick Kane

Detroit has looked horrendous so far, and while the top line has been decent enough, none of the depth players are performing well.  Kane has been the best, but he has 10 points in 17 games.  My level of concern is around a nine.  The shot rate is in the tubes, and I don’t really see anything in the underlying numbers to expect a turnaround.  The team shooting percentage is the highest of his career with him on the ice, while the goaltending is also unsustainably good.  There’s some clear PDO regression coming, showing that the -5 +/- he has is extremely fortunate to not be worse.  He’s a solid streamer still because of the points upside, but I don’t see him getting back to hold status.

MONTREAL CANADIENS – Mike Matheson 

There are no clear candidates on the Canadiens as they’re a fairly straightforward team with most players performing in line with expectations.  I wanted to highlight Matheson briefly because I’m out on him going forward outside of PIM and blocks.  There’s only so much longer the Canadiens can keep Hutson off the top power play unit.  He’s so much better than Matheson that it’s a disservice to the team.  More than half of Matheson’s points have come on the power play, so if/when he loses that spot, his points could fall off a cliff.  He’s been a dumpster fire defensively, so while I wouldn’t outright drop him, I’d be looking to sell him off.

CAROLINA HURRICANES – Martin Necas

I’m sure there are some old Razzball Hockey podcasts out there where Reid and I gush over Necas’ potential.  It’s finally happening!  Obviously this rate is unsustainable while Necas is shooting 26% and on a 140 point pace, but I think we could finally see a 100 point Hurricane.  The Carolina power play is thriving, he’s getting quality minutes for a Carolina forward, and Rod is giving him a pile of offensive zone starts.  In all situations, Necas has a 77.5 oZS%.  You rarely see that kind of number.  Unless you can sell super high, I’d rather just ride Necas.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Luke Hughes

The Devils look good under Keefe, but the younger Hughes brother is one of the only guys struggling.  In 12 games, Hughes has only two assists with no goals.  He’s barely over a shot per game, and he’s stuck on the second power play unit.  My expectation is that Hughes doesn’t get back to a hold in 12’ers at any point this season.  Like most Keefe teams, the top unit dominates the power play time, and there’s no way Hughes should replace Hamilton (as an aside, I almost wrote about Hamilton because he has only one goal, but he’s been so obviously unlucky that I decided it wasn’t worth it).  The only positive I could take away is that the Devils are shooting under 3% with Hughes on the ice.  That’s beyond hilarious and should end up around 10%.  Best case, I think we see him push towards 40 assists but with only around 5 goals.  Worst case is his minutes get even lower and he switches spots with Siegenthaler.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS – Connor McMichael

McMichael scored 18 goals and 15 assists last season, but at this rate, he’s going to beat both marks by New Years.  McMichael has 12 goals and 7 assists, with McMichael leading the league in even strength goals (11).  His 25% shooting obviously won’t last, but the shot rate pushing towards three per game is exciting.  He looks to have permanently locked in a spot on the top power play unit as well, which is encouraging.  This isn’t what I’ve done with the rest of these guys, but the eye test is coming into play here.  I’ve watched a decent amount of the Capitals, and McMichael has stood out in every game.  I’m completely buying him as a 30 goal, 70 point player.

NEW YORK RANGERS – Mika Zibanejad

While 12 points in 16 games isn’t awful, Rangers fans are ready to send Zibanejad anywhere off the team.  The top line with Kreider and Smith has been quite disappointing, and Zibanejad has become a secondary power play option on the first unit.  For years, Zibanejad has been in the 50% range for even strength Corsi.  This season, he’s down at 43.6%.  In other words, he’s regularly getting caved in, the Rangers are much worse on the power play, and his shot rate is down in the dumps.  I don’t have him anywhere but if I did, I wouldn’t cut him.  That said, I would be trying to sell him based on name value as soon as possible.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Mathew Barzal

Obviously Barzal is still out for 2-4 more weeks, but he was having a rough start to the season with only five points in ten games.  The shot rate fell to below average despite playing over 21 minutes per game.  There are some encouraging signs underneath the hood.  Barzal’s possession stats are the best of his career, although he did drop off in comparison with the rest of his team.  The real problem is that the Isles are still the Isles.  I was hoping the coaching change would see them open things up with Roy, but they’re still a dreadful watch getting propped up by overtime losses.  Upon return, I don’t see Barzal sniffing last season’s value.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – Travis Sanheim

There aren’t many players to discuss on Philly, but Sanheim being their best defenseman by a country mile is worth talking about.  Sanheim has been great so far in real life, with that translating strongly into fantasy.  His playing time is through the roof, and he’s starting to get real power play time (all of his points to this point are at ES).  Now, the shooting percentage will fall off, both his own and the team’s with him on the ice.  However, I’m betting on Sanheim remaining a hold for the rest of the season.  In block leagues, it’s not even a debate, but even in standard leagues, he’s doing enough across the board that he should fit on most teams easily.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Erik Karlsson

Boy, the Sharks sold Karlsson at the right time.  He has 2+9 in 20 games so far, and the best thing I can say about him is that he’s stayed healthy again.  He has shifts where he looks completely disinterested out there, so it’s no surprise that Pens goalies can’t make a save with him on the ice.  Their power play is still a mess, and the team is just bad.  It pains me to say it since I’ve long been a huge fan of Karlsson and think he’s a no brainer Hall of Famer, but he’s fringe at best now in 12’ers.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – Kirill Marchenko

The last team in the Metro Division, Columbus has managed to avoid being a laughing stock despite horrible injury luck and their offseason tragedy.  Most of that credit goes to the first line, with Marchenko leading the way with 16 points in 17 games.  It’s the playmaking that really increased, with 10 assists already (his previous career high is 19).  That line has been elite at driving play, and none of his shooting percentages are out of line with expectation.  There’s a good chance that Marchenko is a bottom end hold for the rest of the season, while worst case should have him on the fringe.

That’s all for now guys.  I’ll be back covering the Western Conference later in the week.  Be sure to check out Evan’s streaming post that came out on Monday afternoon.  As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below.  Thanks for reading, take care!