Is it Saturday again already? You bet it is! Happy weekend once again from MarmosDad. I’m back for another write-up of numbers and names to help you place in those DFS tourneys and double ups! For today’s lede, we’re headed to St. Louis for a strong backstop play in G Jordan Binnington (DK: $8500). Binnington came out of the gate hot with 3 straight wins. Even after his first loss on Wednesday night against the Oilers, Binnington still sports the 4th best GAA in the league at 1.74. Looks like the Habs will be singing the Blues in this one as St. Louis is heavily favored (-295). All of this adds up to a solid start in net for our DFS squads today.
As far as the overview for our games today, it’s a 12 game Saturday with a majority of matchups starting at 7:00 PM ET or later. There are 3 afternoon games if you want to sneak in an early lineup, but otherwise a lot of our names will be from that evening slate.
C: Auston Matthews, DK: $8,700 – We’ll start it out with one of the big guns here in Auston Matthews. I saved a bunch of space for a big center play for us today, and figured we can fit in Matthews at $8,700 while still playing a good forward with the leftover cash at UTIL. We could probably even fit in McDavid here ($9,500) but it’d cost us at the end. Choosing Matthews really speaks for himself but against an aging Jonathan Quick, (and his .878 SV%), Matthews is the kind of player that could put up a multi-goal night and maybe even get some of those big bonus hatty points if he can pot three.
C: Shane Pinto, DK: $3,700 – News that Josh Norris could miss the rest of the season and is out until at least February is not great news for Ottawa fans…but it could be a small blessing for Shane Pinto. Pinto has 5 goals in his first 6 games, and could move up to Norris’s 2nd line spot between Alex deBrincat and Claude Giroux in 5-on-5 time. If Ottawa chooses to stick with Derick Brassard as Norris’s replacement, Pinto still sees time centering PP2 and should get increased minutes either way with a guy like Norris on the IR.
W: Nick Robertson, DK: $3,500 – I was going to head up our wingers with Danton Heinen, a skilled forward playing up with Sidney Crosby, but it looks like his time on L1 may be coming to an end. Jake Guentzel was not supposed to play last night in Vancouver but he’s due back today. To be safe we’ll go elsewhere. When in doubt for forwards, it’s back to the Leafs for a guy that increased his DK salary from $2,700 last week but is still a bargain priced play…”Playing on either of those top two lines in Toronto absolutely checks any of the other (boxes). Robertson isn’t exactly 1994 Gino Odjick, clearing space for Pavel Bure either. He comes with the prospect pedigree, has 2 assists in his first two games, and is getting PP time along with his regular 14+ even strength minutes.” And that’s me quoting me! Robertson is still slotted in on L2 with Tavares and Nylander, and is getting PP2 time. Ride this wave until he prices himself out or gets moved away from the big boys.
W: Dominik Kubalik, DK: $5,500 – This one is a similar play to the Pinto one above. A skilled forward that is not only off to a hot start, but could also benefit from an injury to the top 6. Kubalik has 4 goals and 6 assists through Detroit’s first 7 games and is riding shotgun to Dylan Larkin and David Perron on the first line. The PP1 time is there too, so a $5,600 price tag is great for someone that could out-produce players priced a lot higher tonight.
W: Artturi Lehkonen, DK: $5,100 – There’s definitely a theme this week. Players that are priced well but also in line to see increased time because of absent/injured teammates. Lehkonen was supposed to spend a short amount of time in the top 6 replacing the Av’s captain, Gabriel Landeskog. The problem is, Landeskog’s outlook became a lot less encouraging after undergoing knee surgery on October 19. 12 weeks definitely seems like a lot longer of an audition than expected, but Lehkonen has shown he belongs in that top 6 so far. 5 points in 7 GP with an average TOI north of 20? Sounds like a strong play to me at $5,100.
D: John Carlson, DK: $7,100 – We’ve saved a few bucks here and there, so I figured we could jump on a chalk D as our first rearguard today. The Caps face off against Nashville and a less than perfect looking Juuse Saros in this one. Carlson’s numbers certainly reinforce those counting him as a top D-man so far. He’s tied for 4th in defensemen scoring with 6 points in 7 GP, is averaging 24+ minutes in TOI, and is skating 4:44 in PP time every night. He’s also at the top (or near the top) of all D men in shots and hits.
D: Bowen Byram, DK: $3,300 – This one is a cheaper D play for today and is all about the upside. Byram missed a bunch of games last year due to concussion issues, and looks like a guy that is ready to prove his worth with the Avs. He’s skating on the 2nd pairing for even strength time, and is getting some special teams time too (just over 1 minute on PP2 and PK). With 5 points in 7 GP, there are worse names to roll the dice on here. Just be aware that, like JKJ said earlier this week, Devon Toews is back and could cut into Byram’s ice time (hence the $900 drop in price from early in the week).
UTIL: Anze Kopitar, DK: $4,500 – Well, I had Binnington originally priced from earlier this week but today he jumped by $1,300 so it’s a different plan for our UTIL spot today. I had both Claude Giroux and Tage Thompson written up as $5,300 picks but to maximize our cash, the best play here is Anze Kopitar at home to the Leafs. Kopitar has 7 points in his first 8 games, is still manning the first line with Fiala and Kempe, and is anchored to the middle of the top PP spot. It’ll save us $100 here if we go with this lineup, but I think that’s close enough to maximizing our potential FPTS.
As always, mix and match if you like different chalk plays up front or on the blue line. As with any Saturday, there are plenty of different combinations that work, but feel free to work these guys in where you need to fill in the big (or not so big) priced names.
For other bets each week, I’ll give you a few plays for prop or team bets based on odds posted at the time of edit.
The Sea Bass / Cam Neely : (Favorite)
[After extensive polling of the fans of this space, (uh…my eldest kid), we’re changing the ‘Favorite’ title to Sea Bass (Cam Neely) from Dumb and Dumber.]
The moneyline play of the day looks like St. Louis (-295) at home against Montreal. Odds look pretty stacked against the Habs and, despite the presence of Suzuki and Caufield, I think Binnington can pull out a W here today.
The Happy Gilmore : (Underdog)
The surprising hot start by the Flyers didn’t deter the oddsmakers from making them an underdog at home today against Carolina. I’d take Philly at +150 to win outright, or at least keep it within a goal.
The Claude Lemieux : (Turtle/Flop)
Jake Oettinger has had a great start to the year and Dallas is sitting pretty atop the Central division with a 5-2-1 record, but at -120 I think they might have their hands full with a strong New York Rangers squad in the 2:00 PM ET game today.
That’s it for this week! I hope everyone enjoyed it. If you have any comments or questions, feel free to leave them below or give me a shout @MarmosDad.
