It's been a while since I've posted because of the NHL hiatus, but I have to say that the Four Nations Tournament has exceeded expectations and then some. It has been an incredible tournament with the big showdown coming on Thursday night between USA and Canada. The regular season starts up again on Saturday, so I'm going to have my updated hold/stream list finally come out on Monday. Before then, I'm going to publish my Playoff Manifesto. For those of you that are new in these parts, I break down every NHL's schedule for the fantasy hockey playoffs i.e. for those of you in head to head leagues. Volume is King, and we want to take advantage of every single edge we can get. Before I get started, I want to explain my process and my abbreviations, plus give a small glossary.
All of the loyal Razzballers know my infatuation with Dylan Guenther in fantasy. It's been a tough month with him on the injured list, but he came back in a big, big way. Guenther tied the game against the Flyers on Tuesday before scoring with one second left in overtime to win the game. He finished with two goals and an assist with six shots and more importantly, 22:37 of ice time. It was great to see him handle that kind of workload right away. Utah still has three games before the Four Nations break, so if you're in one of those leagues without IR spots and Guenther is available, grab him immediately. There's easily top 100 upside here for the rest of the way. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Everything looks minor compared to the Luka Doncic trade, but there were four hockey trades over the weekend that were all notable. Two have fairly big fantasy repercussions, one gives some potential upside with changes of scenery, and the other could have some tertiary impact. For the second time because of trades, I had to scrap my hold/stream list. I'm going to hold off on that until the Four Nations break now. I also plan to have my Playoff Manifesto come out over that time. For today, let's talk about those trades in the order they occurred:
During Claude Julien's tenure, his #1 goalie, usually Tuukka Rask, never played against the Sabres. My hometown team has been so bad for so long that we would get Halak, Khudobin, or whatever backup. Even with a new coach, we haven't seen Swayman once, but he had a rough outing on Tuesday night. In fact, we had a first of the season. Tage Thompson and J.J. Peterka each had a hat trick and an assist, with the duo becoming the first teammates this season to both have a hat trick in the same game. They really seem to be clicking since Jiri Kulich (assist, shot) moved onto their line at center. Thompson and Peterka each finished +6 which is remarkable. Thompson looks to be getting healthier and back to his normal self. I saw Peterka on the fringe but this heater is enough to get him back as a bottom end hold. Kulich looks like a huge dynasty value and is a solid streamer for redrafts. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Last season, Carolina made the biggest move at the deadline acquiring Guentzel from the Penguins. This season, they didn't wait until the deadline, and they somehow pulled off a trade that was bigger than the Guentzel move. On Friday night, one of the biggest hockey trades of the millennium took place between the Avs, Canes, and Blackhawks. Carolina acquired Mikko Rantanen, Taylor Hall, and a lottery ticket prospect. The Avalanche received Martin Necas, Jack Drury, and two draft picks. The Blackhawks helped facilitate the trade, retaining 50% of Rantanen's salary, receiving a third round pick and dumping Hall in the process. Safe to say a couple things. One, it's worth me pushing back my hold / stream list after a move like this. Two, there's enough fantasy impact from this trade that it requires its own post. Let's get to it!
We were early on the Igor Shesterkin bandwagon when we found out in 2019 that he was going to come over to the Rangers that season. His numbers were insane in Russia and none of it looked fluky. He's been fantastic ever since, carrying flawed Rangers teams to elite levels. This season, he finally had a rough patch, although it was largely influenced by the play in front of him. The Rangers are bouncing back, and Igor is at the forefront. Shesterkin saved 33 of 34 shots in the 6-1 win over the Flyers, after having shutouts in his previous two starts. His save percentage has crossed the .915 mark now, and he's third in the league in GSAA. Hellebuyck has done enough to say that he's the top goalie in the world right now, but I'm still taking Igor second, and wouldn't be surprised to see that flip at any point soon. Given that the Rangers are in the thick of a playoff race, expect massive volume and Shesterkin to be a top five goalie the rest of the way in a worst case scenario. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's not too often that you see a team up 5-1 halfway through the game and they don't even get a point. In fact, they lost by multiple goals. The Sharks were taking it to the Predators on Tuesday before the firepower we expected from Smashville going into the season showed up, making a 7-5 comeback. They were led by one of their big free agent signings, Jonathan Marchessault, who had a goal and three assists with four shots. It was a brutal start to the season for Marchessault (like everyone on the Preds), but Marchessault is in the midst of a nine game point streak right now. The shot is fantastic, so he's played his way back onto the fringe with a lean towards holding, especially on this hot streak. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
In a change of pace from the usual posts, I'm going to take a look at my ten bold predictions from the preseason and how they're shaping up. I will link the original post at the end of this one, but I will go through all of them in this one and look at their chances of coming through. Some have a lot of hope, and some make me look like a fool. To be fair, that's how bold predictions should go! Let's get to it!
"I really like Logan Thompson. There’s no way to bet on this, but I favor Thompson to be the #1 by the end of the season, and probably by midseason. I’m a big believer in his talent. It (drafting him) is a gamble I’d like to take." And that's me quoting me from my preseason rankings! Well, we've reached that point and then some. Thompson posted his second consecutive shutout on Thursday, beating the Sens 1-0 in OT on a Ovechkin game winner. Thompson's numbers are ludicrous. He's started 25 games and has 20 wins. His GAA is pushing towards 2.20 and his save percentage is above .920. And just like that, he's the #2 overall goalie on the season. I didn't get Thompson on every team like I hoped, but he is carrying my teams where I do since he was my third goalie drafted. The Capitals look like a powerhouse and I see no reason to expect him to fall off a cliff. Would I bet him as a top five goalie the rest of the way? Probably not. As a #1 in 12'ers? Absolutely. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
It's not too often that you see the first period natural hat trick, but it happened on Tuesday night. Kyle Connor scored his 24th-26th goals in the first period against the Canucks, adding a power play assist later in the game. It's been a fantastic start to the season by the Jets, and they've been led by the two Connor's. Here is the list of forwards who have provided more value than Connor to this point in the season: MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Kucherov. That's it. Obviously he losses some value in non-hits leagues, but regardless, we're looking at a season full of career highs for a player who has already had 47 goals in a season and 49 assists in a separate season. It's time for Connor to start being acknowledged for the superstar that he is. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
I attribute a lot of it to randomness, but the new coach bump seems to happen over and over again. Right now, it's happening in Detroit, where Todd McLellan has the Red Wings on a seven game winning streak shortly after taking over the team. Given the ugliness of the Eastern Conference Wild Card race, that's vaulted Detroit right back into contention. A few guys have been thriving for Detroit, but I want to focus on Marco Kasper. The former eighth overall pick is getting his first real opportunity in a big role, playing first line minutes with Larkin and Raymond. In both games over the weekend, Kasper had a goal and an assist, with five shots between the two games. He's getting second power play unit time as well, which is enough to bump Kasper into the middling to solid streamer range for the time being. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
I was originally going to take Sidney Crosby for three points but realized I took him within the last two weeks. Then, I was going to take Bryan Rust, but thought it was too bold, so went with Matchbox Twenty. Of course Thomas had two points (more on him later), but the other two both had three points. The top line for Pitt was fantastic, with Crosby and Rust each having a goal and two assists in the 5-3 win over the Oilers. Their plus-minuses are quite ugly, but Crosby and Rust have been fantastic for fantasy purposes. Rust doesn't get the credit he deserves for playing like a star. Crosby moved into 9th on the all-time points list and is starting to make a case for being on the hockey Mount Rushmore. He's probably just outside it, but regardless, we can never take Crosby for granted. Both should be top 50 players for the rest of the season, with Crosby having a good chance to get inside the top 25. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
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