And with that, the regular season has ended. I hope everyone was able to take down their fantasy hockey championship! I’m going to have a few more posts in April before I call things for the summer. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Five teams for three playoff spots. One division on the line. There's still some things on the line over the last three nights of the season, so today, I'm going to give you a quick rundown of teams that will be going hard to finish the season, and what teams will take their feet off the gas before the playoffs start. Let's get to it!
Montreal did the seemingly impossible on Monday, blowing a 2-0 lead against the Blackhawks, eventually losing in a shootout. The good news for them is they only need one point against Carolina on Wednesday to clinch, and Carolina has nothing to play for. Additionally, Columbus has to win both of their remaining games in regulation as well. I have a few takeaways from Monday's game. One, Ivan Demidov stole the show in the first period, scoring a goal and an assist. I covered him extensively last week here. Two, for a team with very few bright spots this season, Frank Nazar looks like the real deal for Montreal. He was torching Hutson regularly, and few players have done that in the second half of the season. Nazar will be a very good late round target next season. Lastly, Sam Rinzel stood out on a regular basis. The former first round pick picked up his fourth assist in eight games, playing almost 27 minutes in this one. He's also averaging 2.5 shots per game in the small sample size, but we could see a fantasy impact as soon as next year.
Montreal was able to make a big move this week, signing their former top five pick Ivan Demidov after his KHL season ended. He has to acquire a visa to play here, so I wouldn't count on any impact from Demidov this fantasy season, although he could end up playing in the playoffs against Washington, which would be incredible. Today, I'm going to take a deep dive in Demidov's long term value for fantasy and how I'm going to project him going forward.
It had to happen in his office. On Sunday, Alex Ovechkin set the NHL goal scoring record, tallying his 895th career goal from his hot spot against the Islanders. In my preseason bold predictions, I said that Ovechkin would break the record this season despite his projections being in the low 30's both by sportsbooks and projection systems. You can see everything I wrote here (I will look back at all of these in a post once the season is over). I have to say that I never saw it coming after his injury. Forty-two goals in 61 games is absolutely insane for anyone, let alone a 39 year old. That's why he's the greatest goal scorer we have ever seen. It will be fascinating to see where he's ranked next season, in what presumably will be his last in the NHL. I had him 45th overall going into the season, a bit above ADP, but I think it has to be higher than that now. The Capitals are very good, and on a per-game basis, Ovechkin is a top ten forward this season. I can't wait to see how the Capitals do in the playoffs, Ovechkin included. Let's take a look at some other highlights from the weekend:
I'm going to change things up today, as I've already done a big playoff schedule breakdown for everyone and will continue to answer all specific questions you have for those still in contention. Today, I'm going to focus on three different players who signed in the last week and stepped right into the NHL from college. All three are on teams in the playoff picture giving them some meaningful games right away. I'll talk about all three players, how they project long term, and who I would prioritize for those of you in keeper leagues. Let's get to it!
The Oilers have taken a massive hit lately missing both of their superstar centers, but on Saturday, one returned and picked up right where he left off. In the Battle of Alberta, Leon Draisaitl dominated, scoring two goals and an assist with eight shots in his first game in almost two weeks. It's been a three way battle for the top forward spot on the season between MacKinnon, Kucherov, and Draisaitl. Draisaitl's shot rate resurgence to go with him blowing away the rest of the league in the goals department gives him a real case for #1. Regardless, he's the Hart favorite and has played his way back into tier one going forward. Let's take a look at some players around the league that have had a value change recently:
The new Robert Thomas gets things done before 3 a.m. The Blues won their seventh straight game on Tuesday, destroying the Canadiens 6-1. Their best player led the way with a goal and three assists, giving him 2+11 in his last eight games. The Blues are getting closer and closer to a lock for the playoffs, which is a big triumph for Montgomery and the organization. It's not a knock on Kyrou or their other wingers, but I'd love to see what Thomas could do with a superstar winger on his side. In terms of a pure playmaker, Thomas would be in my top ten in the league, and probably top five. He's still only 25 years old and his game should age incredibly well, so now that his shot rate is to a below average level instead of a huge drain, Thomas is a great dynasty asset. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Who knew that McDavid and Draisaitl injuries would actually help Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? It's been a very disappointing season overall, but RNH is closing in a big way. On Saturday, he scored a hat trick on five shots, playing over 23 minutes in the 5-4 win over the Kraken. That was his third three-point game in the last four, making RNH a short term hold while he's hotter than a pistol. At the least, if he's available in your league, I would be sure to grab him for his Wednesday-Thursday back-to-back against the Stars and Kraken this week. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
The Blues are making a real push for the playoffs, and one of their summer offer sheets is making a big push. Dylan Holloway dished three assists on Tuesday, adding three shots in the 4-1 win over the Predators. All of a sudden, Holloway is up to 55 points on the season, with seven points in his last four games and twelve in his last ten. The Oilers could sure use a guy like Holloway right now. Well, maybe not Tuesday night, but the point stands. Worst case, Holloway is an elite streamer, but while he's this hot with some great matchups on the horizon, I would hold him. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Things are shaking out differently than I expected in Detroit. I thought Petr Mrazek was brought in to be the backup to Talbot, but he’s started three consecutive games. After losing to his former team, the Hurricanes, on Friday 4-2 (saved 28/31 shots), he came back with an 18 save shutout victory in the 3-0 win over the Golden Knights. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Going into Wednesday's game against the Sabres, the Red Wings were at the bottom of the cluster of teams battling for a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. They have the hardest remaining schedule in the NHL, so it was as close to a must win that a game could be for them with five weeks left in the season. After falling down 1-0, they took control of the game, with their future Hall of Famer leading the way. Patrick Kane had three points in the first period and finished with five, totaling two goals and three assists with five shots. I can't lie, I completely whiffed on a potential Kane turnaround. You can split his season into two parts: with Lalonde as coach and McLellan as coach. Since the coaching change, Kane has turned back the clock and found a level that we haven't seen in three years. He's a clear hold in all formats as the Red Wings try to snap the second longest playoff drought in the league. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
The big man has caught fire for Washington. Aliaksei Protas had his first career hat trick on Tuesday against the Ducks, scoring three goals on six shots. He has seven points in his last three games, bringing him to 28+3o in 65 games. Even with a poor shot rate, he's a no brainer hold, especially considering his +39 rating. I was absolutely shocked to see that he's available in over 60% of leagues still. Even the shot rate is starting to improve, as Protas has 26 SOG in his last ten games. Protas is still only 24 years old and has greatly increased his stock in dynasties as well. Yes, the shooting percentage has to regress over time. After all, he had only 6 goals last season shooting 5.3%, and now he's well over 20%. Even with that impending regression, he's getting to the right areas and Washington has turned into a powerhouse. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
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