Ten Opening Thoughts

Instead of the usual daily notes to open the season, I’m going to give one major takeaway I have from the ten games that I watched extended parts of over the last two days.  Sorry, Seattle and Calgary, you did not make the cut on one of my TVs.  Kudos to Seattle for a big early win though, and they will be covered on Monday with every other team.  We had a little bit of everything over these ten games, so let’s get right to it!

Maple Leafs 2, Islanders 1 – The Maple Leafs and Islanders are both going to be low event teams.

Despite all of their offensive talent in the top six, it is apparent through two games that the Maple Leafs will not be playing open hockey.  After a boring game in their opener, especially by Montreal standards, Toronto and the Islanders didn’t have a ton going on.  There was only one goal at even strength despite eight power plays, with the lone Islanders goal coming shorthanded.  All of the defensemen on the Leafs played 19-21 minutes besides Stecher, who played 16.  That’s a lot of Tanev and McCabe doing nothing.  How are these forwards getting a breakout pass from this blue line?  Toronto desperately needs Matthews to be the Matthews of old, because I don’t see how they’re generating enough offense.  It makes me feel better about Bob and Stolarz going forward.

As for the Isles, this is a reflection of their coaching change.  Going from the run and gun of Roy to the defensive setup of DeBoer is night and day.  They’re not going to be able to generate anything without Schaefer on the ice; it is comical how poor the rest of the blue line is offensively, and how little their forward group provides.  I wouldn’t want anyone outside of Schaefer and Horvat right now, and then Barzal when he’s back.

Penguins 7, Flyers 0 – Your first elite streamer of the season is Nick Robertson.

It was stunning how awful the Flyers were in this game, but I’ll cover that in their Devils game.  Credit where it’s due for the Penguins, this was an absolute bloodbath.  With Bryan Rust out week to week, Robertson skated on the first line in their opener.  He scored two goalas on four shots, playing over 15 minutes.  That doesn’t sound like a ton, but Crosby only played 17:39 with the score out of hand.  The Penguins have five games in eight nights starting on Saturday, including games on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday next week.  All three of those days are light days.  Take advantage of Robertson while Rust is out.

Avalanche 8, Kings 4 – MacKenzie Blackwood starting the opener surprises many, but it shouldn’t.

I covered this extensively in the preseason, and it’s why I had Blackwood ranked higher than Wedgewood.  Yes, he gave up four goals, but Blackwood is going to be the 1A to Wedgewood’s 1B.  I fully expect him to be a top ten goalie at the end of the season, and Blackwood carries top five upside.  Honestly, there weren’t really any surprises in this game.  T.J. Hughes was on the first power play for the Avs in his NHL debut, but he’s only a deep league streamer at the moment.

Blue Jackets 6, Sabres 3 – The trade could actually be a big boost to Matthew Knies.

Listening to Knies talk to Waddell after the trade, you could tell that he’s glad that the move is done with and he can move on with his career.  Knies had an excellent first game with the Blue Jackets, scoring two goals and an assist with four shots in the win.  He went right onto the first line and top power play unit despite joining the team three days ago.  The other wingers who could threaten his role, Nichushkin and Garland, played 15:45 and 12:09 respectively.  Doesn’t feel like much of a threat.  It’s only one game, but it made me feel a lot better about Knies.

Rangers 5, Lightning 1 – The Rangers could be a defensive juggernaut.

I covered this a bit in my bold predictions, but I saw the case for the Rangers becoming a playoff team.  Their first two games showcased that in the best way possible.  They were tied 0-0 with under five minutes left against the Bruins, and stymied the Lightning on Thursday.  Kucherov and Point only had one shot on goal each despite playing 24 and 22 minutes.  They haven’t even needed Igor Shesterkin to be great so far, although he did score a goal!  It’s easy to envision Shesterkin being the #1 overall goalie again, and if the Rangers power play remains strong, they’re going to surprise some people.

Devils 3, Flyers 2 (OT) – It’s not panic time already, but if I’m panicking about anybody already, it’s the Flyers.

My god, I can’t imagine a team playing two worse games to start the season.  Luckily for them, Joseph Woll stood on his head on Thursday to steal the team a point.  The expected goals in this game was 4.41-1.89 New Jersey.  Every single player on the team was below 50% xG except Michkov, who obviously only played 13:24 because Tocchet hates Russians.  Bump was the only player above 50% in their opener.  They literally don’t have one skater that’s been a bright spot so far, which seems impossible.  It doesn’t get any easier with Carolina dna Tampa on deck.  I’m staying away from streaming any of their guys right now, and would be very careful with Vladar and Woll.

Wild 3, Predators 1 – Mavrik Bourque has a chance to play his way into a strong streamer in 12’ers, if not more.

Things went to plan here for the Wild, so there’s not much to take away here.  I did find it very interesting that Bourque played over 17 minutes in this game.  He’s shown in the AHL that he has a ton of scoring upside, and we know that Nashville is kind of stuck between two paths at the moment.  Bourque played with Marchessault and Colton and were used for offensive zone starts regularly, meaning they’ll be put in advantageous positions.  If you look at the box score, there isn’t much there besides four shots and three hits, but Bourque is definitely worth monitoring.

Mammoth 6, Blackhawks 0 – First line Vincent Trocheck is a big surprise, but massive to his fantasy value.

All indications early in training camp were that the Mammoth would strengthen their center depth by going Schmaltz, Cooley, then Trocheck in their top nine.  Instead, Hayton was the third line center, and Trocheck played on the first line.  He was listed as the winger and Schmaltz at center, but Trocheck took 14 faceoffs to Schmaltz’ four.  I used to be a massive Trocheck fan in fantasy, and he’s been very up and down in his career.  That said, if he’s playing with Keller and Schmaltz, there’s a clear path to top 100 value in all formats, even without PP1 time.

Oilers 9, Canucks 7 – Vasily Podkolzin has to be owned everywhere.

I know that it’s two games against the Canucks, who deserve a lot of credit for putting up a fight against the Oilers, including winning their opener.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks are just bad instead of a laughingstock.  It sure seems like Foote was one of the worst coaches ever and Malhotra seems to have a clue.  Back to my original point, Podkolzin had three goals and an assist with two shots, along with eleven shots and seven hits.  Sure, he probably won’t keep PP1 forever, but with RNH and Savoie out, it’s not changing any time soon.  Ride him while he’s on fire.

Sharks 4, Panthers 3 (OT) – Luca Cagnoni, who I wrote was my favorite last round pick for defenseman. and I put in my Top 200, should be owned in 12’ers or deeper.

First off, here’s to hoping Aleksander Barkov isn’t out for too long, although the injury did not look good.  The story of the night was Cagnoni, who scored the winning goal in overtime.  He had a power play assist in regulation, put three shots on goal, blocked three shots, and took a penalty.  Despite playing with the lead for a large chunk of the game, Cagnoni played over 21 minutes.  That shows he’s not stuck in a third pair, offensively only role.  He had a massive season in the AHL two seasons ago, and there’s a lot of offensive upside.  You can’t argue with being PP1 on this Sharks team either.  I have him on my bench in my 10 man roto league, and would certianly hold him in anything deeper.  The upside is too big to ignore.

That’s all for now guys.  As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below.  I’ll be back on Monday recapping the action from the weekend.  Thanks for reading, take care!