If you didn’t see Part One, you can check it out here. My big takeaway from doing these rankings is that goaltending gets ugly fairly quickly. It’s going to be difficult to get a #2 that you feel safe with unless you reach for goalies early. There are guys that I like in this tier, but they almost all have disaster potential, and if they don’t, then they have volume questions. Let’s get to it!
Tier 3B: Glass Half Empty
18) Logan Thompson
19) Thatcher Demko
20) Tristan Jarry
21) Antti Raanta
22) Jeremy Swayman
23) Philipp Grubauer
24) Cam Talbot
25) Darcy Kuemper
26) Adin Hill
27) Pheonix Copley
It’s extremely difficult to separate these players for one reason or another. While the tier is glass half empty, it’s relative to expectations for each player. For example, I’m bullish on Talbot ending up the 1A over Copley, but more on those guys later. Thompson was very good in his rookie season. However, he suffered a major injury and the team went on to win the Cup without him. Personally, I don’t put too much stock into that for this season. I think he’s clearly a better goalie than Hill, who happened to catch lightning in the bottle. That said, I admit that I could be wrong, in which case Thompson ends up being the 1B. That’s the built in risk here.
Demko had the season from hell last year, posting a 3.16/.901. I believe in his talent, but the problem is that the Canucks aren’t a good defensive team. Demko can get his save percentage back to his usual .915 or so, but the GAA is going to be a problem regardless. Demko probably has the highest probability of this group to be a top 10 goalie without needing an injury to somebody else, because he’s going to be the workhorse. Maybe Tocchet transforms the team defensively and Demko plays like a top 5 goalie to give him top 10 stats. But for goalies who struggled mightily last year, I’m more bullish on that happening with Markstrom.
Jarry seems to alternate great years with mediocre years, so this could be the year to own him again! My main concern is that Erik Karlsson teams play more open by nature, which is going to hurt Jarry. He’s also a bit of an injury risk. Jarry is the most likely guy in this tier to end up a #2 goalie, but I don’t see that ceiling anymore.
Raanta and Swayman are in the same situation. Both are the 1B’s on their team, but those teams are defensive juggernauts. Both of their starts should be elite at the end of the season, but the question is how many are we going to get? Both get a boost in roto leagues into tier 3A. I have Raanta ahead of Swayman because I have more faith in Carolina maintaining their defensive standards than Boston without Bergeron, but Swayman undeniably has more upside. There’s next to no chance Raanta plays 35 games, as he’s injury prone himself and if Andersen goes down, Kochetkov will get his fair share.
Grubauer is similar to Bobrovsky in that he had a terrible regular season, but was really good in the playoffs. The problem is that Grubauer has been awful in both seasons with the Kraken, so this ranking could even be too high. What I like about him is that the team is good defensively, so if he can even get to a .905 save percentage, his goals against average could be a plus. Driedger as the backup isn’t the toughest competition for starts either. If you think the Kraken can repeat what they did last season, Grubauer is a great 3G target.
Kuemper is more talented than this rank, but the team is front of him is aging quickly. He won only 22 of 57 games played last season, a dreadful number. Maybe the Caps can rally together for one last push to get Kuemper into the solid #2 goalie range, but I’m skeptical.
As mentioned above, I’m bullish on Talbot. Yes, he was bad last season, but the Senators were a mess defensively. Copley had a .903 sv% last season, but that led to a 2.64 GAA. If a Kings goalie posted even a .910, their GAA will be around 2.5 or even lower. There’s huge upside for a Kings goalie if they play well, and there is nothing over Copley’s career to suggest that he’s capable of that. He’s in this tier because maybe he gets most of the starts anyway, but the team was desperate to trade for a goalie at the deadline last season and did with Korpisalo. The door is open for Talbot to be a #2 for 12 man leagues.
Tier 4: Could Be A #2, Could Be Waiver Bait
28) Joonas Korpisalo
29) Karel Vejmelka
30) Ville Husso
31) Carter Hart
32) Jordan Binnington
The goalies in Ottawa were a disaster last season, in part because of their defense. Korpisalo has two good seasons in his entire career. Yes, one was last year, but I don’t think the 11 games he had in Los Angeles carries much value as they’re worlds better than Ottawa defensively. He had a .911 sv% in Columbus is no small feat, and if he does that in Ottawa, he’ll be a #2. But I’m short on Korpisalo in general and it’s not the best landing spot for his fantasy value.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I kind of like Vejmelka this year. It’s been a long time since I liked an Arizona goalie (Kuemper). His numbers torpedoed at the end of last season, but for a large portion, Vejmelka was top five in the league in goals saved above expected. The Coyotes have a lot of young talent coming in, and they had some veteran additions that should help them defensively, at least until the trade deadline if the guys on one year deals are moved out. It’s incredibly risky, but there’s upside here if the Coyotes finally take a step out of the doldrums.
Perhaps the young guys on Detroit all take a step forward this season, but it appears that they’re a step behind the Sabres and Senators in their own division, let alone the top four teams. Husso had some quality stretches last year, but he also had parts where he completely sunk your fantasy team. While I do think his numbers will be slightly better than last season, I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as more than a #3.
I believe in Hart the goalie, but the team in front of him is going to be terrible. In leagues where volume is important, Hart deserves a boost up, but there’s going to be some really ugly stretches. The upside here is that somebody trades for Hart during the season, in which case he could end up being a #1 again depending where he lands. I wouldn’t draft him solely for that chance, but as we approach the trade deadline, I think Hart will be must own just in case that happens.
Binnington has been trending in the wrong direction every single season. I don’t see the Blues improving that much, and he’s a big reason for that. I can’t really see a scenario where I own Binnington, but he belongs here because he’s not as bad as the guys in the bottom tier and the volume should be there. That is, unless he loses his mind some more and gets a suspension or sent home.
Tier 5: Goalies With Upside Who Split
For Tier 5 and Tier 6, I’m not going to rank these guys. You can have your own personal preferences towards the goalies and their situations. Additionally, league format plays a big role.
If Spencer Knight is back with the team, would it surprise anyone if he ends up usurping Bob again? He’s a huge risk, but he’s the perfect late round gamble. Marc-Andre Fleury is still floating around on a fairly good team. I expect Gustavsson to get 50-55 starts, but I don’t see a massive workload for him. MAF’s starts should be pretty valuable. The hardest guy I have to judge is Akira Schmid. I firmly believe he’s the goalie of the future, but also think that Vanecek is the favorite to get most of the starts this season. In dynasties, I’m all in, but I’m skeptical for redrafts. The ultimate dart throw is Jack Campbell. Year one in Edmonton was a disaster, but would it stun anybody if he bounced back year two? I’m not saying it’s a likely scenario, but the permanent addition of Ekholm can get his numbers back to the point where you can hold him in roto leagues or deep leagues.
Tier 6: No Split, Just S***
These guys should all be the #1 on their teams, but I want absolutely nothing to do with him. I can’t see a scenario where I draft John Gibson, Petr Mrazek, Elvis Merzlikins, Jake Allen, or Kaapo Kahkonen. Gibson is closest because like Hart above, perhaps he’s traded. The problem is it’s been years since Gibson was good, so it’s hard to say what he has left anymore. The same applies to Allen to a lesser extent.
And there you have it. There are guys like Wolf and Kochetkov waiting in the wings, but they aren’t worth taking in redrafts since they’ll be in the AHL to start. There are other guys worth streaming in good spots like Varlamov, but they also aren’t worth drafting because the volume will be too low to hold. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. I’ll be back in the next day or two continuing my rankings. Thanks for reading, take care!
