We’re going to move right into the Top 40 defensemen, following the Top 20 defensemen that you can read here. In actuality, this post is going to cover the Top 60 defensemen, but more on that later. Let’s get right into it!
21) Shea Theodore – This tier started with Montour in the top 20 and finishes with Theodore. If I was coaching Vegas, Theodore would be ranked much higher because he would never leave the first power play unit. He’s clearly better than Pietrangelo and Hanifin, but to close the season, Hanifin was on the first unit. Theodore is risky because of that, but he’s coming off 42 points in 47 games. It’s hard to keep him any lower than this.
At this point, there are 20+ defensemen that are similar in overall value. They almost all fit into two categories: safe with a medium ceiling, or low floor, higher ceiling. I’m going to make two lists separating the players, but keep in mind that there can be guys in the other tier ahead of them. I’m not going to number them, but they will be in my order of preference within that category. The exact ordering will come out in my Top 200. I’ll keep all my comments on the players until after the tiers.
#3’s in 12’ers who could be a #2 or #4:
Drew Doughty
Thomas Chabot
Michael Matheson
Vince Dunn
Brent Burns
Devon Toews
Kris Letang
Noah Hanifin
Alex Pietrangelo
Mattias Ekholm
Gustav Forsling
Filip Hronek
Moritz Seider
Brady Skjei
Justin Faulk
Rasmus Andersson
Darnell Nurse
Jared Spurgeon
Jaccob Slavin
Cam Fowler
Doughty isn’t a player I generally like, but there’s something to be said for a guy who almost always stays healthy and is at least a bottom end hold. I am worried about the shot rate dropping and Clarke potentially taking PP1 away. Chabot is in a similar boat with Sanderson, and he’s an injury risk. However, his points are very good and contributes to the other categories fairly well. Matheson was shockingly a top 20 defenseman last season despite being -24. I have a hard time seeing a repeat of 64 points, especially if Hutson can take PP1, but he does contribute across the board. I probably should have Dunn higher (odds are I will in my Top 200), but Montour’s arrival has me a bit worried. Seattle in general has me a bit flummoxed.
The next eight guys are very similar. If Theodore does get PP1 in Vegas, then all eight of these guys are going to be on PP2 for their respective teams. The points will be fine, but not fantastic. They should contribute across the board though, and there shouldn’t be any doubts as to whether or not you should hold them. From Burns down to Hronek are some of the least interesting guys in fantasy, but sometimes you need some boring guys to fill out your team that you can count on for production, especially if you’re dipping into the tier below for multiple guys.
Loyal Razzballers know my hatred for Seider in fantasy. He hasn’t missed a game in his career, but why am I excited about 42 points with a poor shot rate? One of my bold takes last season was that Gostisbehere would have more value in fantasy, and it wasn’t close. This year, I don’t think it’s even bold to say that I much prefer Gustafsson over Seider (outside of banger leagues). Skjei moves to Nashville and is another guy like the group of eight above. I do think his upside is higher than it has been because he should play first pair in Nashville, but he’s obviously not replacing Josi so he’s kind of stuck at that level unless Josi goes down. Faulk and Andersson should be PP1 on their teams, but it’s hard to get excited about them. Andersson took a big step back last season, but there is some upside if he can back to that level, whether it’s in Calgary or elsewhere. Faulk is a boring #4/5.
In non-banger leagues, Nurse still carries some value for his shot rate and the expectation of 10ish goals, but unless your league has hits or PIM, leave him on the wire. Spurgeon is coming off a major injury and lost PP1 to Faber in the process. I won’t be drafting him, but you could do worse with your #5. It’s clear what Slavin is at this point, and I included Fowler even though I don’t really want him because his shot rate cratered. However, there is a chance he’s traded and perhaps that gives him a short term boost.
All The Variance
Brock Faber
Erik Gustafsson
Thomas Harley
Sean Durzi
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jake Sanderson
Jakob Chychrun
Jamie Drysdale
Bowen Byram
Brandt Clarke
Lane Hutson
Seth Jones
Owen Power
Adam Boqvist
Luke Hughes
Cam York
Pavel Mintyukov
Simon Nemec
Henry Thrun
Faber is the exception to this tier. His rookie season was fantastic with 47 points and elite defense, playing almost 25 minutes a game. The shot rate was bad enough that he was only a #4 in 12’ers, but that’s his floor. Where the variance comes from is where does he go from here? Is there another level to his game offensively? What about his shot rate? I can see a path to Faber being a top 20 defenseman, but the secondary stats will have to increase.
I’ve always been a big fan of Gustafsson’s game. Now, he goes to Detroit where he clearly should be the PP1 on a team with high quality power play players. The main concern is also his shot rate. At his peak, he was at two shots per game. Can he get close to there? I think so, but it’s unclear. Harley stormed onto the scene with 15 goals, but it will be hard for him to repeat shooting over 10%. Heiskanen should maintain PP1, and DeBoer doesn’t push guys during the regular season. I really like the players, but I’m skeptical of a big surge. I also like Durzi’s game, but if he loses PP1 to Sergachev, I suspect he ends up towards the fringe. He’s a good target, but I’m afraid he’s being overdrafted considering the downside.
Gostisbehere was fantastic in Detroit with 56 points, but that’s not happening in his return to Carolina. He’ll be a good source of PPP, but his minutes are going to drop on a better team. The shot rate is also trending the wrong way. I wouldn’t be surprised by a big breakthrough from Sanderson. Chabot lingers though, and I suspect the breakout is still a year away. His former teammate, Chychrun, moves to Washington where he should have a big role once again. His secondary contributions do give him a higher floor, so me typing this makes me want to move him up, but again, Carlson is blocking him from PP1. The good news is that he’ll at least have Ovechkin with him on PP2.
Now, we really get to some question marks. How does Drysdale look with a full season in Philly? It looked rough to start, but I do believe in the talent. It should be said that while I like a lot of these guys as punt defensemen late in drafts for their upside, I wouldn’t necessarily want more than one of them on my team. Certainly not more than two. Byram looked fantastic when he first arrived in Buffalo. I do believe Ruff will find that version of him again, but Dahlin still blocks him from PP1. Clarke and Hutson are also uber-talented defensemen who will probably be on PP2 to start, but they could force their way onto the top unit. Hopefully both teams unleash Clarke and Hutson to see what they have and take the downsides with their offensive upside. I put Jones here, who I never draft, because there’s at least some chance the Blackhawks PP is that good because of Bedard.
Power should take a big step in year three, but again, Dahlin is in the way. He also feels allergic to shooting the puck at times, which I hope the coaching staff forces on him. Part of me is really excited for Boqvist, and part of me thinks he could be so bad that Florida ends up scratching him. In practice today, he was actually on PP1. I still think Ekblad gets first crack, but to be fair, he’s failed at it in the past. I will drop Ekblad down a bit because of that, and Boqvist has to go on the radar for that potential PP upside. Can he get back to the 45ish point pace he played on two seasons ago? The draft pedigree is there, but there’s a lot going against him, including the inability to stay healthy.
Hughes is out for about the first month of the season, but I already planned on being lower on him because of how dreadful he was at even strength last season. The return of Dougie doesn’t help his cause either. York might get PP1 time over Drysdale, but we’ve reached the point where I’d much prefer the guys above. Mintyukov is the only one I could possibly see drafting. Maybe the Ducks PP is that good with their young talent? The secondary stats are poor though. Nemec has the draft pedigree, but I don’t really see the offensive opportunity this season. I thought he should be on the list though. Thrun rounds it off since he has a clear path to PP1 in San Jose, for however much that’s worth.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back on Friday with my Top 200. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
