Today, we’re moving up to the blue line. I’m going to cover the top 20 defensemen today, the top 40 later in the week, with the plan of putting out my Top 150 or Top 200 on Friday. I’m on the fence between 150 and 200 just because of how much team needs come into play later in drafts. If I do the Top 150, my plan is to have a separate post early next week about players I’m targeting later in drafts. Anyways, let’s get to the kings of the blue line!
1) Cale Makar
2) Evan Bouchard – Makar and Bouchard are both covered in the Top 20 overall here.
3) Quinn Hughes – Hughes was the #1 defensemen in fantasy last season, setting career highs across the board on the way to the Norris Trophy. Hughes has long established himself as a 60+ assist defenseman with elite power play points. What changed is his shot rate went up to around 2.5 per game, a very good rate for a defensemen, while his shooting percentage also skyrocketed. Usually those two things don’t go together, which is why I don’t have Hughes in the #1 spot. Makar’s floor is so high that he has to be by himself at the top, and I just slightly prefer Bouchard to Hughes. If the shots do go back down a touch, Hughes doesn’t provide the hits or PIM (depending on league format) to be the #1 guy. That said, I wouldn’t argue if you had Hughes at #2, as this tier goes from Bouchard to Hedman.
4) Roman Josi – I’m not going to lie, I love all of the guys in this tier. I definitely want to come away with at least one of them on every team and would have no problem taking two. Josi is always a good bet to lead defensemen in goals, and he absolutely crushes every category. The Nashville power play has sometimes been a weak spot, but it turned around last season and Stammer has arrived, so that’s not a concern. His floor is as high as anybody’s, and his ceiling pushes towards Bouchard and Hughes as well, I just think Josi’s median outcome is slightly lower.
5) Rasmus Dahlin – It felt like last season was the year from hell for the Sabres, Dahlin included, and yet he still finished as a top ten defenseman. That’s where his floor is nowadays. The points drop off almost entirely came from the power play falling apart, which shouldn’t happen with the new coaching staff. Dahlin has stayed healthy, provides an elite shot rate, and just scored 20 goals. The insane thing is that he’s still only 24 years old. Don’t forget, he was already the #1 overall defensemen for almost all of 2022-23, only getting pipped by Montour at the end. It’s an undeniable ceiling with the floor of being a bottom end #1 in 12’ers.
6) Victor Hedman – Hedman quietly bounced back in a big way last season with 13+63, with 31 points coming on the power play. He’s always a force at even strength as well. The shot rate is trending a bit in the wrong direction, but I do think he could take more shots on the power play with Stamkos departing. Also, with Sergachev gone, Tampa is going to be more dependent on Hedman than ever. The new captain should step up, and that’s enough to keep him in tier two.
7) Adam Fox – This tier goes from Fox until Sergachev. We know what we’re getting from Fox at this point. The PPP are going to be elite as will the assists. He did score 17 goals last season, but that was with a completely unsustainable 12.4% shooting for a defenseman. I thought about having Fox in the tier above, or even a tier of his own, but the shot rate being around average keeps him down here. He’s a very safe #1 in 12 man leagues, but I don’t see the upside unless he has a Q. Hughes level of shot rate jump.
8) Dougie Hamilton – Like New Jersey as a team, Hamilton’s season was ruined by injury early on. I’ve always been a massive fan, and the injury won’t take me off the bandwagon. The shot rate is always near the top of the league for defensemen, as are the goals. We finally saw the big assist total two seasons ago, so I think he can put it all together. The good news is that I expect Dougie’s minutes to go up a bit with Keefe in charge, and the injury to Luke Hughes clearly gives Hamilton PP1 to open the season. Keefe has always given his top unit huge minutes, which is another uptick. I’m buying New Jersey bouncing back in general, and Hamilton is a big piece of that.
9) Noah Dobson – Dobson took the step forward last season that we have all been waiting for with 10+60. I don’t love the shot rate taking a small dip, but it’s clear that Roy is going to rely on Dobson as his #1. While the non-points stats aren’t elite for Dobson (unless you’re in blocks leagues, then he deserves a bump up), it can’t be ignored that he was over a point per game going into March. It’s very similar to where Hughes was before his jump last season. Maybe that happens with Dobson?
10) Josh Morrissey – It’s two straight years with Morrissey finishing as a top ten fantasy defenseman. The shot rate took a nice step up last season which is a big help. Last season’s numbers are well within reason, with upside from there if the Winnipeg PP gets back to the level they were in 22-23. I don’t have much to add here because Morrissey kind of is what he is.
11) Mikhail Sergachev – This is admittedly a big leap of faith in Sergachev. He’s getting out of Hedman’s shadow to become the #1 in Utah. I’m assuming that Sergachev takes the PP1 role from Durzi. We’ve already seen what Sergachev can do in that role two seasons ago, where he put up 64 points, 27 of which came on the power play. The shot rate is my only concern, but worst case, it should be average. The PIM/hits are generally very good so the floor is solid. Worst case, this ranking is a slight overpay, but I can see a career year with the young and improving Utah team.
12) Miro Heiskanen – This tier goes from Heiskanen down to McAvoy. These guys could all be bottom end #1’s, but they aren’t safe anymore. In terms of defensemen in real life, Heiskanen would probably be in tier one. His drop in total points was solely from a power play drop off. The reason I can’t get Heiskanen any higher is two fold. One, Harley is breathing down his neck, potentially for PP1. The main thing is that regardless of what defenseman goes on each unit, the top unit doesn’t get traditional top unit ice time. Heiskanen is extremely safe to be a top 20 defenseman, and I do think he gets back to his 22-23 level, but I don’t see a path to being a top five defenseman.
13) Morgan Rielly – Rielly is different from the rest of this tier in that I feel really safe about him being a #2 in 12’ers. The assists and power play assists are going to be very good, and now the shots are above average for defensemen. He also doesn’t have a threat to him on the top unit (OEL will probably run PP2). Rielly is a boring pick, but he’ll do exactly what you’d expect.
14) Erik Karlsson – Looking back at last season’s stats for my rankings, I’m kind of in disbelief that Karlsson was the #13 defenseman. Then I realized how he was still good enough across the board. Sure, Karlsson is starting to age out, but there’s still a good chance for the Pittsburgh PP to bounce back to counteract that. Letang is also a lingering factor as Pitt’s depth has weakened to the point that their second PP is ugly. I admittedly don’t love this ranking for Karlsson, but the alternatives aren’t great either.
15) John Carlson – Carlson had his worst season in seven years, scoring only 10+42 in a full 82 games. He’s also 34 years old now, but I can’t help but see a bit of a bounce back. I do think the Capitals made some nice additions to their roster which also helps. My main concern is that Chychrun takes the top spot from him, either due to age or Carlson struggling. I don’t expect that to happen though, at least for this season. Like Karlsson, I don’t love this ranking, and I can see dropping both of them down eventually. The big thing is that I’m likely to end up with two top defensemen so I may not be involved in this tier.
16) Charlie McAvoy – McAvoy’s points dropped to around a 50 point pace over 82 games. Even with that, he was a top 20 defenseman because the hits/PIM are very good, and he’s always good at even strength. He’s the first guy ranked that is a drain on your shot rate, which is what keeps him out of the tier above. Part of me thinks McAvoy has a 60 point season in him at some point, but the bigger thing is getting his shot rate back up towards 2 instead of 1.5. It’s not the most exciting, but McAvoy should be a fine #2.
17) Brandon Montour – This tier goes from Montour into the Top 40 defensemen. Montour moves to Seattle on a big contract after winning the Cup in Florida. This is a leap of faith on my part, but I’m a big fan of Montour for this season. I get that Dunn is there, but I think Montour will get first crack at PP1. That could matter now with a new coach, as I expect Disco Dan to lean on their first unit more heavily than Hakstol. Two, Montour’s floor is extremely high. He pushes three shots per game and the PIM/hits are very good. There’s a chance Montour pays off this ranking even scoring 45 points. I obviously don’t see him finishing as the #1 defenseman in fantasy again, but there’s a lot to like with Montour.
18) MacKenzie Weegar – Another ex-Florida defenseman, Weegar had the best offensive season of his career in Calgary, scoring a whopping 20 goals with 32 assists. Weegar is always a monster in hits/PIM, blocks if your league has them, and is now very good at shots for a defenseman. I was originally skeptical of a repeat, but why not? Hanifin will be gone for the whole season now, and while the shooting will regress, the assists could uptick. Maybe Weegar ends up with 12+40 instead, which isn’t as valuable, but that’s still a #2 with his contributions to other categories. Even if Calgary is bad, I think they can win his minutes. If Weegar can be my #3, I’d be ecstatic. For those of you in banger leagues, he’s a borderline #1.
19) Zach Werenski – The Blue Jackets were a disaster last season, and yet Werenski’s plus-minus was 0. That shows how good he was at even strength, where he had 45 points. He had only 12 on the PP, but with the growth of some young guys and the addition of some vets, I can see an uptick there. The shot rate is always elite for a defenseman as well. The risk is almost entirely injury related at this point.
20) Aaron Ekblad – This admittedly might be way too high for Ekblad. Even though Florida just won the Cup, Ekblad hasn’t been at his peak for a few years. This is more about opportunity than anything. Montour is gone. OEL is gone. Are they really going to play Boqvist or Schmidt on PP1? I think not. It’s clearly Ekblad’s job to lose playing with a stacked quartet of forwards. Twenty PPP seems very realistic if Ekblad stays on the top unit. So we’re looking at potentially 50 points with massive PIM/hits. That extra time offensively could see his shot rate jump back up as well. There’s plenty of downside here, but I think we see an Ekblad resurgence.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back either Wednesday or Thursday with the rest of the top 40 defensemen. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
