I hope everyone is enjoying the Olympics! What a wild ride Wednesday was with three overtime games. I won’t say that I like 3 on 3 overtime in the elimination rounds, but it certainly was dramatic. In the past, I used to do a big Playoff Manifesto breaking down schedules for head to head leagues, focusing on teams and players to target for streaming. I won’t be doing that this year for one main reason: Daily Faceoff already did all of the work. If you go to their site (dailyfaceoff dot com) and click schedule, you can look at everyone’s schedule for each week, and if you click strength of schedule, it will separate light days. If you have any specific questions about players to target, I will always be here to help. Instead, I’m going to look at players that I’m buying for the second half. On Monday, I will look at players that I’m selling for the rest of the season, with MarmosDad having a post for Wednesday before the regular season starts going again. And now that you know what the plan is in these parts, let’s get to this post!
1) Adam Fantilli – Fantilli has the perfect setup for a big finish. One, the minutes are fantastic since Bowness took over, even with the team getting healthier. Two, they’ve played their way into playoff contention, giving more reason to really push Fantilli. Three, his shot rate is pushing towards three per game after a slow October. Four, he’s been the 12th unluckiest shooter so far this season, scoring 6.2 goals less than expected given his shot profile. Five, there is not five, isn’t four enough!? In summary, we have a 21 year old starting to put it together, getting good minutes in easier situations, and has positive variance coming? Sign me up.
2) Brandt Clarke – I keep hyping up Clarke, but I need to do it again. He’s finally getting reasonable minutes consistently, playing 21-25 minutes in each of his last five games before the break. Just as important to the minutes increase, the arrival of Panarin should instantly help their power play immensely. I don’t do rest of season rankings because they’re extremely time consuming and it’s not like we’re doing drafts now, your team is your team, but I’d have Clarke as a top 20 defenseman even though he’s been around the 30th best defenseman so far.
3) Timo Meier – He’s a weird case as the Devils are pretty far out of the standings. However, I don’t really see them throwing in the towel, especially with J. Hughes coming back after the break. Meier will get to play with a top center at all times again, and is 4th in the league in goals scored below expected. With average luck, Meier would have 22 goals already instead of 14. The shot rate is one of the best in the league as well. Yes, he has a -20 rating and only 28 points in 52 games, but I expect Meier to be worthy of holding the rest of the way.
4) Nazem Kadri – This one is going to be short and sweet. I believe that Kadri will be traded at the deadline, and he’ll get to play on a much better team with much better linemates and a better power play. Even if the minutes slightly go down, Kadri should be better. I’m not sure if they’ll be traded, but if they are, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou are in the same boat.
5) Connor Hellebuyck – It’s crazy to include him here considering how good he’s been over the years. He’s the 29th overall goalie this season, which could give some opportunity for a buy low. Here is the Winnipeg schedule in the first month after the break: @VAN, @ANA, @SJ, CHI, TB, VAN, ANA, NYR, COL, STL, NSH, @BOS, @PIT, @NYR . That is an extremely friendly schedule. There’s only one back to back in the first eleven games as well. They’ll need to start well right away to avoid Chevy deciding to be a seller, but as discussed before, the team is old and doesn’t have a lot to sell anyways. With how open the last wild card spot is, I’m not ruling out a Jets run led by Hellebuyck. I’d bet on a top ten goalie the rest of the way with obvious top goalie upside. Hopefully he brings back a gold medal.
6) Jake DeBrusk – This is more of a shot in the dark, as the Canucks are awful and DeBrusk has a full no-trade clause, meaning if Vancouver even decides that they want to trade him, DeBrusk is in control. His numbers look dreadful on the surface, but he’s been the unluckiest player in the league, scoring a preposterous -12.6 goals below expected. Clearly, he is getting in the right positions, so positive regression is on the horizon, no matter what team he’s on.
7) Kiefer Sherwood – This is the diciest one of the bunch here because where Sherwood slots into the lineup makes all of the difference for his value. In his first game with the Sharks, he played with Celebrini and Smith. The hits will be incredible regardless, but Sherwood could turn into an elite streamer or even bottom end hold if he sticks in that spot. If Graf takes that spot and Sherwood is down on the third line, it’ll be more of the same as Vancouver. I’d make the spec add to find out though in 12’ers or deeper, especially with hits.
8) Shane Wright – This is more for dynasties as I’m looking to buy low on Wright, although if he is traded, I think we could see an instant boost. I’m baffled by Seattle not giving him more of a chance while they let Stephenson get absolutely killed in his minutes, but apparently Wright’s name is on the block. If he goes for a proven center, like a Trocheck or Kadri if they’re willing to go to Seattle, Wright will instantly get a much bigger offensive role on a worse team that is incentivized to develop him. Wright is only 22 years old, and I haven’t given up on him becoming a player that ends up an easy hold in 12’ers.
9) Thomas Harley – Harley is barely a top 100 defenseman so far, but I’m expecting him to get back towards last season’s level. He’s looked great for Team Canada in the Olympics, and I’d be absolutely stunned if the Stars don’t add a defenseman to pair with him. The group of guys he’s played with this season is dreadful. I think we see a big finish as he finds his game again. Another player who has crushed at the Olympics is Rasmus Dahlin, and while I’m not necessarily buying him as he’s already been a top ten defenseman this season, I think we could see him be the #1D the rest of the way.
10) Linus Ullmark – Ottawa has been arguably the best defensive team in the league this season, or at least is in the discussion. Their goaltending has torpedoed them, but Ullmark looked pretty good in his two games before the break. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ottawa pushes their way back into the playoff picture because of that structure. Per usual, who knows with goalies, but everything is in place for Ullmark to finish in a big way.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back on Monday with a look at ten players that I’m looking to sell for the end of the season. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
I have a few of these bums. Hopefully they step it up!