Ten Players I’m Buying For The Second Half

Frustratingly, I’m still a bit under the weather after ten days, but today, we persevere.  I’m going to look at ten different players that I’m buying for the second half of the season.  Later in the week, I’m going to look at players that I’m selling.  I hope that everyone had a Merry Christmas and had some time off to relax with your families.  Let’s get to it!

1) MacKenzie Blackwood – How is he still available in over 50% of leagues?  In five starts with the Avalanche, Blackwood has four wins with a 1.82/.940.  He’s already been rewarded with a five year contract extension.  We’ve seen Georgiev go on long tears with the Avalanche, and Blackwood has more talent than Georgiev does.  The Avalanche are finally getting healthy, giving them the core of a good defensive team to go with all of their offense.  Blackwood is a slam dunk top ten goalie for me the rest of the season.  If you didn’t grab him right away as I suggested, hopefully you’re in a league where he’s still on the waiver wire.  Blackwood is must own everywhere.

2) Karel Vejmelka – While I definitely prefer Blackwood, it is insane to me that Vejmelka is available in over 80% of leagues.  Vejmelka is back to the goalie we were seeing three years ago, with a 2.32/.918.  Why is that sitting on the waiver wire?  None of it looks particularly fluky from Vejmelka.  If anything, Utah should get healthier on the blue line as time goes on.  Vejmelka is the clear #1 right now and is a #2 in 12’ers.  I prefer him over guys like Binnington and Talbot who are owned in about 50% of leagues.

3) Wyatt Johnston – Let’s start with the obvious: Johnston is fourth in the league in goals scored below expected.  He’s been incredibly unlucky so far to have seven goals in 34 games.  That’s encouraging in itself, but there are a couple other things that go hand and hand that make me see a big second half from Johnston.  His shot rate is pushing towards three per game, a step up from last season.  The main thing is the time on ice.  Usually ice time is a concern for Dallas forwards, but Johnston is averaging over 19 minutes per game now.  It’s the most on the team for forwards by over a minute per game.  With Marchment out long term now on top of Seguin, I think we can see the top Dallas forwards start to push towards that 20 minute mark.  Those extra minutes on top of regression have Johnston primed for a big second half (perhaps 20+ goals?).

4) Filip Forsberg – This one is also pretty straightforward.  Forsberg has the lowest shooting percentage of his career and is also in the top 20 in goals scored below expected.  He’s actually top ten in the league in shots, yet only has nine goals.  Now, he is on a career high pace for assists, but it’s safe to say that some of those assists are going to turn into goals.  While it may be too late for the Preds to salvage this season, they are starting to score plenty of goals like we expected.  If I had to pick the top ten goal scorers for the rest of the season, there’s a good chance Forsberg would make that list despite this slow start.

5) Patrik Laine – I’m officially suckered back in.  Laine has looked fantastic for Montreal since returning from injury.  The power play is flowing through him, and while the minutes aren’t huge, St. Louis is putting Laine in advantageous situations.  He’s owned in almost 75% of leagues so you probably can’t pick him up, but I included him because if you did pick him up, I wouldn’t want to sell high.  Yes, he could get injured again, but I want to roll the dice with Laine.  If he does stay healthy, we’re looking at elite power play production and the goals that come with it.

6) Jack Quinn – This season couldn’t have started worse for Quinn, but we’re finally starting to see signs of him breaking out.  He has eight points in his last six games, and the shot rate is starting to jump up.  More importantly, he’s becoming a focal point on the power play, where he dished two assists on Sunday.  I don’t see Quinn getting back to a hold level in 12’ers, but I’m bumping him back up to a solid streamer and think he can settle as an elite streamer.

7) Brock Nelson – Nelson has established such a high baseline, scoring 34+ in each of the previous three seasons, that it’s safe to assume a better second half than the first half that he had.  What puts him on this list is the possibility of a trade.  As a pending UFA, it makes sense for the Islanders to sell him as a rental to the highest bidder.  The Islanders currently have the worst power play in the league, so any trade would immediately boost Nelson’s value.  He’s on the fringe right now in 12’ers, but I think Nelson will be a clear hold by the end of the season.

8) Macklin Celebrini – Nothing that Celebrini is doing is fluky.  He’s the real deal, and I’m not scared of any rookie wall.  There’s zero reason to have any concern.  Just plug Celebrini into your lineup and don’t think about it, even in redrafts.

9) David Pastrnak – Pastrnak has never had a single digit shooting percentage in his career.  He’s currently sitting at 8.6%, having only 13 goals despite leading the league in shots on goal.  Sure, his linemates are extremely weak, but Pastrnak is too talented to stay that low.  He also has plenty of room to grow on the power play, so I’m expecting the usual monster second half that we’re accustomed to.

10) Connor Bedard – The goals have been quite disappointing so far, but the coaching change has made it clear that Bedard is priority #1 again, like he always should have been.  He should be playing 20+ minutes a night with the best linemates possible.  We’re starting to see a bit of a surge, and I think it continues.  I suspect Bedard plays close to a point per game pace the rest of the way while putting 3+ shots on goal per game.

Streamer of the week (< 50% owned) – Dmitri Voronkov (12.7%) – Voronkov is hotter than a pistol right now, with eight points in his last five games.  The Carolina matchup isn’t the best, but Columbus has three home games this week, allowing Evason to get good matchups for the top line.  Voronkov is also getting top power play time so take advantage while he’s a hot schmotato.

Streamer of the week (< 10% owned) – Erik Brannstrom (0.3%) – Hughes is out for a week, so with Hronek also down, Brannstrom should be running the top power play unit for the Canucks.  He played almost 20 minutes on Saturday which is encouraging.  Brannstrom is purely a short term stopgap, but is an extremely viable option while Hughes is out.

Three Point Challenge:  We will do Tuesday’s games per usual.  You can’t select MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Rantanen, McDavid, Kaprizov, Marner, Connor, Bratt, or Eichel.  I’ll go with Rust against the Red Wings.

That’s all for now guys.  I’ll be back twice later in the week, once with daily notes and once with players that I’m selling in the second half.  As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below.  Thanks for reading, take care!