It’s time to do the opposite of my post from last Friday, where I looked at players to buy for the second half. Today, I’m going to be a pessimist and tell you the players that I expect a dropoff from down the stretch. If you didn’t see Friday’s post, you can check that out here. Let’s get to it!
1) Morgan Geekie – Sorry MarmosDad! Geekie shooting 24.8% is simply unsustainable. He’s scored a whopping 15.1 goals above expected on the season. The only people above 10 in the entire league are Geekie, MacKinnon (13.9) and Crosby (10.1). No offense to Geekie, but one of these things is not like the other. Also, that gap from him to Crosby can’t be understated. He’s literally been 1.5x more fortunate than the third “luckiest” guy in the league. Sure, Geekie has shown a knack to overperform expectation, but this is at an unparalleled level. I obviously wouldn’t cut him, but I’d sure as hell sell him if I could. If I had to bet on over/under double digit goals down the stretch, give me the under, and Geekie’s secondary contributions are pretty rough outside of hits.
2) Noah Hanifin – This is obviously on a different level than Geekie, but I wouldn’t even own Hanifin in 12’ers. Vegas seems fully committed to 5F on the PP, and with Theodore healthy, Hanifin doesn’t have a spot on PP2. In fact, if Theodore did go down again, I’d expect Andersson to take his spot now (I would also sell Andersson). The hits and PIM are poor, the shot rate is mediocre at best, and he’s actually a minus player on the season for those of you with plus-minus. Hard pass.
3) Victor Hedman – You look at Hedman’s 13 assists in 21 games and it doesn’t look terrible on the surface. I would be trying to sell him based on his name value at all costs. He’s not getting PP1 back from Raddysh with how well this season has gone for Raddysh. Hedman’s shot rate is dreadful now, sitting at only 1.5 per game. The more concerning thing is the minutes. Upon his return, Hedman didn’t reach 18 minutes in any of his games, and two of those went to overtime. Tampa also has no reason to push him as they’re a huge favorite to win the Atlantic. Hedman can stumble into some assists just being on a top team, but given his lack of contributions elsewhere, I see him on the fringe.
4) Spencer Knight – This isn’t directly a knock on Knight, who is the main reason that Chicago has been respectable this season. The team around him remains quite bad defensively, and it’s going to get worse once they move their rentals like Connor Murphy. It was getting tough before the break, as Knight allowed 3+ goals in his previous seven games, withe game above a .900 sv%. They also have no reason to push him down the stretch so his workload should cut down a bit. I’m still a big fan in dynasties, but I don’t see Knight sustaining as a top 15 goalie.
5) J.J. Peterka – He’s currently 72% owned, which is a bit surprising to me. Twenty goals is obviously solid, but the secondary stats are pretty rough. He’s under two shots per game on the season after averaging a whopping one per game over his last eight before the break. He’s back off PP1 with Hayton taking his spot. I also expect Utah to add at the deadline, which could knock Peterka down the power play order. The Mammoth were having plenty of success with Crouse on the top line so I think that lasts, and they seem to want Guenther separate from Peterka. Therefore, a trade acquisition is more likely to play with Guenther. That is obviously a fluid situation, but the last game before the break, Peterka was with Hayton and Yamamoto. Not exactly exciting linemates. He’s also well above his expected goal total. Even if Peterka gets to 30 goals, the poor numbers in every other department puts him on the fringe at best.
Three Point Challenge: We will bring back the Three Point Challenge for the return of the league on Wednesday night. You can make your pick here, or on MarmosDad’s post that will be out Wednesday morning. You can’t select McDavid, MacKinnon, Kucherov, Celebrini, Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Kaprizov, Rantanen, Eichel, or Scheifele. Give me Kyle Connor for a big game upon his return with a gold medal.
That’s all for now guys. As mentioned above, I will be back on Friday recapping the action from the first two nights of the league’s resumption, while MarmosDad will be back on Wednesday looking at the impact the Olympics could have on players for the rest of the season. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
I’ll take Bouchard in the challenge