Opening night is here! MarmosDad will be back tomorrow with a division preview, while my next post is going to be on Friday recapping how teams look over the next few nights. For now, I’m going to give you my ten bold predictions for the season. Last season, I correctly called Hagel for 90 points and Ovechkin setting the goal record despite a rough 23-24. Again, these calls are meant to be bold, so my goal is to his 3 of these, maybe 4. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, leave them below. Let’s get to it!
1) Matvei Michkov scores 90 points.
Look, I made Michkov 20th overall in my rankings just to show how much I like him this season. His betting line for the season is around 66.5 depending on the sportsbook, so we’re predicting Michkov to go way over. If you want to read why I’m so bullish on Michkov, you can check out my Top 20 here. As a secondary predicition, I’ll say Zegras sets a new career high in points, which means he gets 66+. A new start should be exactly what Zegras needed.
2) Jet Greaves is a top twelve goalie.
Greaves finished last season incredibly well, and I’m betting on that not being an outlier. While I didn’t love the Columbus offseason, they did add some defensively responsible players, such as Coyle. I also think a jump from Mateychuk will strengthen the bottom pair on the Blue Jackets. I can see Greaves end up being un-rosterable by November, but I think the other end of the spectrum is more likely. He could be the next young goalie to make the jump
3) The Los Angeles Kings miss the playoffs.
Do I fully believe this one? To be honest, no, but of the teams perceived as playoff locks, I see the Kings with the most downside by far. Replacing Gavrikov and Spence with Dumoulin and Ceci is a massive step back, to say the least. Those two plus Edmundson is quite ugly, especially if Clarke doesn’t make a jump or Doughty takes a step back. The defense crumbling could also cause Kuemper to fall back down to Earth, and Forsberg as a backup certainly isn’t inspiring. Their forward depth is so good that I assume they’ll survive, but they’re closer to Vancouver and Utah now than the Oilers and Golden Knights.
4) Evander Kane works his way into being a hold in all formats for the full season.
Kane is obviously a massive injury risk, but he looked pretty good throughout the playoffs for the Oilers. Now, he moves to the Canucks, where he should have a bigger role. Early indications are that he could even get some PP1 time, but even if he’s just in the middle six and second power play unit, Kane should have 20+25 with good shots and elite PIM/hits. There’s even upside for a bit more. I should have included him in my late lotto tickets, so I’m putting him here.
5) Cole Caufield finishes top five in the league in goals, scoring 45.
A full season of Hutson and Demidov is only going to help Caufield on the power play, and better depth should limit how much teams can focus on the top line. Laine even had 15 PPG in 52 games last season. Early indications are that Slafkovsky is going to be on PP1 instead of Laine, which I think is a very bad mistake, but it will force Caufield into being the shooter more frequently. I think the shot rate goes back up to previous highs and in turn, Caufield easily sets a career high in goals.
6) Rasmus Dahlin wins the Norris Trophy.
Alright, go ahead and call me a homer. Dahlin is actually 4th in Norris odds, but Makar and Hughes lap the field, with Werenski coming in ahead of Dahlin. Look, this one is simple for me. Dahlin is already a top five defenseman, and if the Sabres take the jump that a lot of analytics models predict, then the narrative is going to be behind a Sabre winning an award. Tage is great, but he’s not sniffing the Hart. I don’t see Ruff getting all the credit when it was bad last season. Dahlin is the logical choice and honestly, it doesn’t have to get much better than last season. Simply, the team has to be good enough for people to notice.
7) Ottawa doesn’t have a top 150 player besides their big four.
That’s Stutzle, Tkachuk, Sanderson, and Ullmark. In other words, Chabot doesn’t bounce back, Batherson and Cozens don’t find consistency, and Pinto doesn’t take a step. Giroux doesn’t get back to a hold either. I really don’t like how Ottawa’s offense is looking on the whole. I was going to predict that Ottawa finishes seventh in the divison, and I think they could easily fall out of the playoffs again. There’s a lot of dead weight on the roster offensively.
8) Morgan Rielly is a top 15 defenseman.
Rielly is the 31st overall defenseman by ADP. Yes, a lot of things have been trending in the wrong direction, but Rielly should have PP1 the entire season now that Marner is gone. Theodore finished as a top 15 defenseman last season with 7+50, depsite having under two shots per game. That’s the path that we’re looking at for Rielly to get there, and I think he does it.
9) Brandt Clarke is top ten in defenseman points.
You could argue this goes against the Kings missing the playoffs, but I’m banking on the other guys tanking the Kings. Clarke is truly dynamic and at this point, there really shouldn’t be alternative to playing him. There are very few defenseman out there with his skating ability, and the Kings were far better offensively with Clarke on the ice than without. A jump from 16 minutes into the low 20’s, along with continued growth for the 22, leads to a 60+ point season.
10) Sidney Crosby gets traded at the deadline.
Part of me wants to see Crosby stay with the Penguins for his entire career, but part of me wants to see him try to win another Cup. My thought is that after the high level competition of the Olympics, and the Penguins being at the bottom of the standings (bonus prediction, they finish last in the league), Crosby decides to go to either Colorado or Montreal if the Canadiens take a step forward. It seems more likely to me that something this drastic happens in the offseason, but it’s time to get bold, and the Olympics gives it a small chance to happen in my opinion.
