We’re keeping it moving on the hockey side of Razzball with the rest of the Top 20 coming out today. If you missed my Top 10, you can check that out here. Let’s get right into it!
11) Jack Hughes – This tier started with Rantanen and finishes with Hughes. Last season was a lost year for the Devils, but I’m fully anticipating a bounce back with better health. Hughes pushed his shot rate to 4.5 per game, which is amongst the league’s best. Yes, the PIM and hits are trash, but everything else has a chance to push towards the top of the league. Would you be shocked if Hughes put up 120 points this season like Panarin did last season? Personally, I wouldn’t. The upside is so high that I thought Hughes had to go in this tier. There’s plenty of superstars in this range, but Hughes is the only one that I could see being a top five player at some point in the future.
12) Jake Guentzel – This tier starts with Guentzel and goes to Igor. I wanted to put Guentzel in the tier above. I wouldn’t project him for it because it’s not his average production, but I predict that Guentzel sets a new career high in goals and points. I wouldn’t even be surprised if he puts up 100 points. The massive bump in PPP alone can get him there, but more minutes should be on the horizon. Playing with Kucherov can’t hurt either. I’d love Guentzel anywhere in the second round.
13) Cale Makar – Like the only goalie in these rankings, Makar’s season was solid, but he’s capable of even more. He finished fourth last season amongst defensemen for fantasy. That floor is why Makar is separated from all of the other defensemen. Just because a few guys were better than him last season doesn’t mean they’re better players than him. Makar’s underlying numbers did drop a bit last season, but I’m considering that a blip on the radar for the 25 year old. A 100 point season is still in the cards eventually.
14) J.T. Miller – Miller is starting to approach the wrong side of the aging curve, and you need to pair him with the right first rounder for this draft value to be worth it. He’s usually around the 2.5 shots per game range, which is below most of the guys in this part of drafts. However, he is a hits monster and the PIM are solid, and he should put up massive PPP totals again. Will he put up 103 points again? Probably not, but around 90 while smashing all of the categories besides shots is a great building block. If you ended up picking 11th in a 12 man league, a Jack Hughes / Miller pairing would be excellent. Or Hughes with the next guy…
15) Brady Tkachuk – In hits leagues, you can make a case for Tkachuk being a first round pick (same with Miller). Tkachuk doesn’t put up the point totals like everyone else in this range, but you’re getting 4.5 shots per game with those hits/PIM. Although I’m not a fan of Travis Green as a head coach, I do think he’ll give Tkachuk a slight uptick in minutes as well. Getting Tkachuk’s PPP up would be the easiest way for him to return first round value.
16) Igor Shesterkin – I’ll go into details in my goaltending posts, but for those of you that are new to Razzball, I never take a goalie in the first two rounds. You end up far too behind the eight ball in the offensive categories missing out on 90+ points. In a lot of drafts, it’s a moot point because a lot of people reach for goalies in the first round. Igor is the only goalie in my top 20 because like Makar, his floor is outrageous while having the highest ceiling out of everyone. Igor struggled out of the gate last season, and still finished as the #4 overall goalie. He’s never had a save percentage below last season’s .912. Even the top goalies have massive variance from year to year, but Shesterkin is the one who doesn’t.
17) Mitch Marner – This tier goes from Marner past the Top 20. Marner has played at a 100 point pace for each of the last four seasons, he’s a beast at even strength, and puts up quality PPP. The only thing that keeps him down is his shot rate, but two years ago, he was at three per game. If he gets back there, then this ranking is too low. Part of me expects a contract year boost from him as well like Reinhart and his teammate Nylander just had as well.
18) Sidney Crosby – Another year, another amazing season from Crosby. He’s as consistent as they come, and the shot rate has gradually been increasing the last few seasons. Yes, Guentzel is gone, but Crosby finished the season well after Guentzel was traded, and I think their power play bounces back a bit. Perhaps I have Crosby too high up in this tier, but I’ve seen zero signs of regression for the 37 year old.
19) Evan Bouchard – People might take issue with Bouchard being my #2 defenseman over Q. Hughes or Josi, to which I say, too bad! Bouchard was a point per game player last season with a borderline elite shot rate for a defenseman, along with the third most PPP. I’m projecting another step forward towards the 90 point range as the Oilers improved their depth with offensive improvements. The Oilers should be a powerhouse and Bouchard is a big part of that. I have zero concerns about him.
20) Jason Robertson – I assume most people are going to have Robertson ranked lower than this, but I think it’s an overreaction after he was a first round pick going into last season. Robertson’s shot rate dropped significantly and his shooting percentage dropped, a combination that we don’t usually see. He remained a top even strength player, but his PPP also fell off. Personally, I don’t want to bet against the Dallas power play. This is a long way of saying that I think last season was Robertson’s floor, which is a point per game player that’s a plus across the board. We’ve already seen him have 46+63 with almost four shots per game, so the upside is deniable. I think we’re going to see Robertson end up in the middle between the last two seasons, and a 35+ goal, 90+ point guy that hits all the categories is a top 20 player.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be moving into positional rankings next week. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
