We’re one day from the season starting! After watching football all day Sunday, I can’t wait for hockey to start. What a miserable day of football, culminating with my Bills playing horribly against the Patriots, with the referees trying to take over the game, constantly calling garbage against both teams. Anyways… all of my rankings are out, so I’m going to talk about my ten favorite late round picks. What allows these guys to qualify is that their ADP on Yahoo! or ESPN are outside of the top 200. A couple things for clarification to start: I’m talking about 10 or 12’ers where I’m trying to shoot the moon late. Worst case, we turn the pick into a streamer spot. Best case, we end up holding the guy all season. One of the best calls I had over the years was Victor Oloffson’s rookie year, when he has 20+22 in 54 games before the COVID shutdown. In deep leagues, we want to go safer towards the end of the draft because the waiver wire is barren. Guys like Jason Zucker or Trevor Moore, who are middling streamers in 12’ers, become clear holds in deeper leagues and should be your target. Let’s look at those lottery tickets!
1) Vince Dunn (Yahoo ADP: 115, ESPN unranked)
Dunn is going to be the only guy I’m using to make a point. If you use Yahoo or ESPN’s rankings, you’re going to be way behind the eight ball. I have Dunn 89th overall, yet on ESPN, you can get him towards 200th overall on the regular. Compare my rankings to both sides and exploit their mistakes. Sure, Dunn could miss the beginning of the season (he hasn’t been ruled out for the opener), but he’s a #3 defenseman in 12’ers in a worst case scenario, and could be a solid #2 if it works out.
2) Trevor Zegras (Yahoo: 296, ESPN 168)
We can’t deny that Zegras was bad and injured the last two seasons. Before that, Zegras had 61 points in 75 games and 65 points in 81 games. He’s still only 24 years old, and his defensive game really improved the last year in Anaheim. Now, he gets to play with someone with more offensive talent than him in Michkov, and Zegras should get PP1. You can call it a bold prediction if you want, but I think Zegras could have a top 100 season.
3) Jet Greaves (Yahoo: 176, ESPN unranked)
I’ve covered Greaves extensively, but for those who haven’t checked out my rankings (shame on you!), Greaves has bottom end #1 upside. He was outstanding to end the season and given how bad Elvis has been for years, it should be his job. I want him as my #3 on every team this year. It’s super risky, but I’m buying in.
4) Leo Carlsson (Yahoo: 261, ESPN unranked)
Was Carlsson awesome last season? Certainly not. Is a former second overall pick who scored 20 goals in his age 20 season worth a late round pick? Absolutely. Carlsson will have first line center duties along with top power play, so a breakout into a clear hold range is well within the cards, let alone becoming a fantasy stud.
5) Jared McCann (Yahoo: 224, ESPN 160)
The last two seasons, McCann has 62 points and 61 points. He has an average to above average shot rate as a forward, he’s stayed healthy, and he has a top role locked in. Additionally, with a change in coach, the top power play unit could get a big bump in ice time. High floor with a high ceiling, given that we’ve seen him score 40 goals before? Sign me up.
6) Alexis Lafreniere (Yahoo: 256, ESPN unranked)
Sure, Lafreniere was bad last season like most of the Rangers team. However, we’re one year removed from Laf scoring 28+29 with 26 goals at even strength. The shot rate did drop, but I’m expecting a bounce back, plus he’s stayed healthy. Why I really like the gamble is that all indications are he’s going to get first crack on the first power play unit over Trocheck. If he has his season from two years ago with power play time? That’s a 70 point season.
7) Tony DeAngelo (Yahoo: 181, ESPN unranked)
If you’re in a PIM league, I love taking the chance on Tony Dawgs late. The Islanders blue line is such a disaster that he should be on the first pair. Who is going to take his PP1 time? Schaefer? Maybe in due time, but Roy should ease Schaefer in. I’m not going to say it’ll be perfect, but in his last season in Philly in 2022-23, TDA had 42 points in 70 games with 73 PIM. If you need a punt D, he’s a very nice target. I will say that it depends on what you’re looking for. Buium, Parekh, and Clarke are other guys I highlighted in my Top 40 defensemen post that are all great punt options. Just don’t overdo it and take more than one of these guys.
8) Tyler Toffoli (Yahoo: 232, ESPN 149)
He doesn’t qualify for ESPN, but why the hell is Toffoli so late on Yahoo? He’s locked into the top six and top power play unit. The team around him is rapidly improving. Toffoli has a history of producing 30+ goals when in a top six role. Hell, he did it last season on a bad Sharks team. He’s done it three straight seasons! I’m in line with ESPN here, although if anything, I think we both might be too low. There’s no doubt in my mind that Yahoo is way off.
9) Sean Monahan (Yahoo 219, ESPN unranked)
Sure, Monahan looked like he was cooked at one point. However, he was elite last season with 57 points in 54 games. The shot rate was solid, the top line was one of the best in the league by advanced metrics, and his PP1 spot is locked in. Monahan has been an injury risk, but he did play 83 games two seasons ago. Sure, it coule be a mess, but what if he stays healthy? Somehow, Monahan is only 30 (about to turn 31 next week), so it’s not like he’s aged out. He easily could end up a hold for the entire season.
10) Victor Olofsson (unranked both on Yahoo (outside the top 300) and ESPN)
We’re going back to the well here, but only for people in deep leagues. Am I convinced that Olofsson is going to be a factor for the Avs? Certianly not. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up a healthy scratch for stretches. However, he should be on the third line and the second power play unit, but it could get better. Big Val is hurt a ton, so if Olofsson moves onto the second line, he could get back to 20+ goals. I wish he had a clearer path to PP1, as it probably would take an injury to Necas to get Olofsson his spot on the right half wall, but crazier things have happened.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll be back tomorrow with my ten bold predctions for the season. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
