We keep moving along with defensemen 21-40 for the upcoming season. In case you missed it, you can see the Top 20 here. This is a reminder that MarmosDad will have his first post of the year on Wednesday, and I will be back on Thursday. Please leave any questions, comments or suggestions below. Let’s get right to it!
21) John Carlson – This tier started with McAvoy and goes through Toews. This feels a bit harsh on Carlson, but I’d rather be conservative on a 35 year old trending the wrong way. As I mentioned in the Chychrun board, Carlson is at risk for losing PP1 time for the first time in over a decade. I think they’ll try both of them to start again to be fair, but it’s possible. I do think the goals bounce back closer to 10, but 10+45 seems close to the best case now. That’s fine, but don’t draft based on name recognition.
22) Mikhail Sergachev – I was expecting a great season from Sergachev in his first with Utah, but he ended up as the 21st defenseman. The points were very good, driven by the Utah power play, but the shots didn’t bounce back as I had hoped, and he wasn’t as dominant at even strength. Perhaps a healthier Marino will help him, and the Utah depth is questionable which could lead to a marginally bigger workload. He feels quite safe in this range, but I don’t think Sergachev has the ceiling I hoped.
23) Brandon Montour – Montour’s first season in Seattle was solid from a fantasy perspective, but not what we hoped. The goals and shots were elite, and he still provided great PIM/hits/blocks. The problems were that he was a -22, he had only 23 assists, and he had 11 PPP. I talked about it with Dunn, but I think Dunn will get first crack at running the top unit. Outside of the one insane year in Florida, Montour has never provided much in assists, so the points floor is quite low. That said, he fits a ton of team builds because of how much he crushes a bunch of categories.
24) Devon Toews – Player raters are always going to love Toews, and to be honest, I like him for the majority of team builds. He only has one flaw: PPP. Makar has that spot on permanent lock down, and Bednar rolls the top unit insane minutes. Toews only had 3 PPP last season, so you have to make sure you can stomach the hit. Despite a dreadful start to last season, Toews finished as a top 25 defenseman, mostly on the back of 9+28 in his last 55 games. He’s also a lock for an elite plus-minus, providing +28 or better in all five seasons in Colorado. He’s extremely safe.
25) Seth Jones – I really struggled dealing with this part of the rankings. I think more than ever, I want to get defensemen early in the draft. That doesn’t mean I don’t like some of these guys in this tier down to 34, but having some of these guys as my D3 in 12’ers seems kind of gross. Jones fits into that category, although the upside is definitely there. Jones has been a black hole in +/- in Chicago, and it wasn’t better in the regular season for Florida (it was in the playoffs). He appears to have the PP1 spot, and he’s always hit most of the categories fairly well. I’ve always been the low man on Jones, but it could be a decent chance to buy low.
26) Miro Heiskanen – This ranking will definitely put me out on Heiskanen, and as much as it pains me with how good he is in real life, I’m happy to fade. Heiskanen had only 25 points in 50 games last season, while his shot rate fell very close to two per game. The problem is that PP1 is clearly Harley’s now, and Miro is going to be used as the shutdown guy who still provides offense. Unless there’s an injury to Harley, how good could it really be? 50 points? 55 seems like a big reach. Given that he doesn’t contribute greatly to the secondary numbers, I’m out.
27) Shayne Gostisbehere – Gostisbehere was quietly the #14 defenseman last season and it’s easy to see why. He provided very good assists, great PPP, and solid PIM. The problem is that the PIM were a big outlier of the rest of his career. Additionally, he’ll keep PP1 to start, but if he struggles, Nikishin is waiting in the wings. It’s hard to say how Nikishin will adjust to North America for the first time, but if he thrives, it does have the bonus of helping Gostisbehere at even strength. He provides a very safe projection and clear fits into certain team builds.
28) Noah Dobson – Dobson is one of the hardest to project for me. On one hand, the shot rate skyrocketed last season and although the season was dreadful, he’s a prime bounce back candidate. The problem is that his trade to Montreal kills any chance that he’s PP1 with Hutson in the fold. He didn’t have many PPP last season anyways, so 50ish points with very good shots is very doable. Just don’t expect another 70 point season like two years ago.
29) Aaron Ekblad – Ekblad is another difficult player to judge. 30 assists in 56 games was very good, and the shot rate got close to two per game, meaning he was very unlucky to have only three goals. The PIM are elite, as are the hits. The concern is if the PP struggles, he’s going to be the one switched out for someone that isn’t on PP1 (Marchand? Bennett? Verhaeghe?). All indications are that he’s going to play with Forsling, basically guaranteeing Ekblad a good plus-minus. The points upside isn’t massive, the secondary contributions do make him a fine #3.
30) Morgan Rielly – Last season couldn’t have gone worse for Rielly. The reasons I’m expecting a bounce back is that there still isn’t anyone on the blue line to replace him on PP1, and with Marner leaving, I can’t see them going with five forwards. I’d bet on Rielly getting back to the 50 point range. The main concern for me is that the shot rate really cratered from being a big plus to a pretty big negative. I think he gets back to around two per game, and that’s all it should take.
31) Cam Fowler – Fowler was fantastic with the Blues, scoring 36 points in 51 games. Unlike Rielly, Fowler’s shot rate was bad and has pretty much always been bad. He also has some shooting regression coming as well. Even with that, he’s going to quarterback what has been a pretty good power play, and should be on the top pair. This is far too high in banger leagues because he doesn’t hit anyone, but in leagues that are heavy on points, this is even too low.
32) Tony DeAngelo – Tony Dawgs was signed out of desperation last season because of all the injuries the Isles suffered, and he was fine from a fantasy perspective with 4+15 in 35 games. I don’t see Roy giving Schaefer PP1 right away, making TDA the QB by default. He’s traditionally piled up a ton of penalty minutes as well. As long as the plus-minus isn’t a disaster (which it could be), DeAngelo should provide enough across the board to be worth this. He’s going much later than this range so he’s going to end up on a bunch of my teams as a #4/5.
33) Luke Hughes – This will presumably take me out on Hughes this season as well. Maybe it’s too low, but I think we’re a season away from him having the reigns of the blue line. The concern is that Hughes doesn’t provide any non-points contributions: the shots are poor, and all the banger categories are a big minus. He did have 44 points in 71 games last season, but a lot of those points came on the top power play unit, which Hamilton will take back. The downside is quite big when you don’t provide anything but points. Hughes is a clear hold if he’s getting 50+ points, but 40 points puts him on the fringe.
34) Thomas Chabot – Chabot has been bad at even strength for a long time, a main reason that the Sens didn’t make the playoffs for an extended period. The good news is that Sanderson’s emergence slotted Chabot on the second pair where he belonged, and he finally did well at even strength. The ceiling is capped because Sanderson has PP1, but Chabot should be a slight plus in all of the categories, so he fits a lot of builds in this range.
There is a gap from Chabot down to the rest of the guys in my rankings. I have put the high upside, high risk guys in the 35-40 slots. If you want to play it safe, there is a list of players at the end that I like that should provide safe value. I would suggest not taking more than one of the guys from this group, but I like taking the gamble on these guys late in the draft.
35) Brandt Clarke – Will the Kings finally give Clarke the top power play unit like he deserves? Probably not because they have to let Doughty’s corpse on there or go with five forwards, but Clarke is clearly deserving. The departures of Gavrikov and Spence, coupled with the arrivals of third pairing guys Dumoulin and Ceci, means Clarke should get second pair minutes. Just giving Clarke 5 more minutes per game should do wonders, and his playmaking is truly sublime. I really hope that Hiller accepts some of the defensive mistakes and lets Clarke push offensively because he could turn into a star from the blue line. For this season, I still think there’s 60 point upside, but I think we see closer to 50.
36) Zeev Buium – It was a rough playoffs for Buium, but that’s not going to change my overall opinion of him. All indications are the 19 year old will be PP1 for the Wild, who have a loaded power play around him. It also looks that he’ll partner with Faber, which is great for Buium to get in the attack and Faber to clean up mistakes. There’s a chance he struggles and you cut him after a couple weeks, but I can also see Buium being a hold for the full season.
37) Sam Rinzel – Rinzel is a lock for the first power play unit for Chicago. How much is that worth? It’s hard to say, but there’s a fair bit of talent on this roster. In his cameo at the end of the season, Rinzel looked like quite the playmaker while providing a solid shot rate. The plus-minus is a big risk, but there is some safety in that he should never lose his role because Chicago should be bad again, while all of the other guys in this tier aren’t locked into anything
38) Owen Power – Power is the one guy in this tier who has no chance for PP1 barring an injury. Power had some incremental improvements last season up to 40 points and a better shot rate. The main reason that I’m bullish on Power breaking out is the arrival of Kesselring. Power has rotated with different partners throughout his career, almost all of which were horrible. I think we see Power get into the attack more than ever, and year four is a common breakout point. I think we see career highs across the board.
39) Zayne Parekh – The last two are both super low floor for this season, but I’m huge believers in both long term. Parekh looks to be on the third pair and PP2 to start the season. He’s one of the most gifted offensive defensemen that I’ve ever seen so I’m very willing to take the gamble on him. I mean, 30+ goals and 60+ assists in each of the last two seasons in 66 and 61 games is bonkers. If the role isn’t there and he doesn’t produce early on, we can just cut bait, but I truly believe it’s only a matter of time until Parekh is a top ten fantasy defenseman. Given the early impacts some guys are having now e.g. Hutson, I’m ready to take a chance.
40) Alexander Nikishin – Nikishin has the two highest point totals by U23 defensemen in the KHL’s history. He even had more points than Kaprizov did at age 22. Given his age, there is a chance that Nikishin is a monster right away and this ranking is far too low. He has a fantastic shot for a defenseman that he loves to throw on net, which plays right into the Carolina style. My concern is that Rod is a very strict coach, and given what Carolina paid for Miller, both in the trade and his contract, Nikishin will be on the third pair behind Slavin and Miller on the left. That will limit his minutes. The floor is low here, but Nikishin could also take the league by storm and become a hold for the whole season.
Safe players if you don’t want to go high upside: Gustav Forsling, Neal Pionk, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson (beware of a horrible +/-), Kris Letang (same as Karlsson), Filip Hronek, Noah Hanifin, John Klingberg (kind of bullish on Sharks PP and Klingberg should be running it), Brock Faber, Travis Sanheim, Sean Durzi
