It’s time! Today, we start our journey through my rankings for this upcoming season. To remind you of how I’ll proceed, I start with doing the top 10 and then top 20 players, before moving into specific position groups and an overall Top 200 list. It will take a couple weeks to get everything written up and posted. Let’s get to it!
1) Connor McDavid – This should be pretty self-explanatory. McDavid’s floor is so high while also having the most upside. Sure, he was the 3rd overall forward last season, but Kucherov was barely ahead of him despite playing five more games. As good as MacKinnon was last seasons, it’s hard to expect that to repeat. If you’re lucky enough to get the first pick, don’t overthink this.
2) Nathan MacKinnon – I did have MacKinnon ranked second going into last season, which allowed me to get him on a lot of teams that I picked 2nd-4th in. He absolutely smashed across the board with 51+89, 405 SOG (!!!), and 48 PPP. The plus-minus is great and the hits/PIM are solid enough for those of you in leagues that count those. The Colorado depth hasn’t really improved, so I still expect MacKinnon to get one of the biggest workloads in the league. This is the first time that I can remember a very clear cut #1 and #2. Now, is where it gets interesting.
3) Leon Drasiaitl – This tier goes from Draisaitl down to Pastrnak. If you told me you would flip the order of the four players that I have in this tier, I really wouldn’t argue with you. They’re all very close and comes down to personal preference i.e. how you want to start your team off category wise. We can pen Draisaitl in for 105+ points every season with elite PP production. Matthews is going to give you elite goals and shots, but the assists are a bit lacking. Pastrnak is the slightly toned-down goal scorer compared to Matthews, but will provide more assists. Kucherov is somewhat of the blend of both, an elite shot rate to get with truly remarkable assists, but the shot rate still lags behind Matthews and Pasta to the point where he regularly scores 30-40 goals. I ultimately settled on Draisaitl for a few reasons. One, he puts up points at a rate that only McDavid can match over the last five years. Two, he should have better offensive linemates to play with this year when he’s not with McDavid. Three, and the biggest factor, is that he’s never injured. He’s missed five games total over the past six seasons. I think Draisaitl gives you the best combo of safety and ceiling of these four, so I landed there.
4) Nikita Kucherov – I originally had Matthews here and decided to flip flop. Kucherov had an absurd 44+100 with 306 shots on goal last season, his second straight season staying healthy. While it would be foolish to expect a repeat of last season, I don’t see a big drop off coming. Guentzel is an improvement over Stamkos at even strength at this point in their respective careers. The minutes went up a couple minutes per game last season, and I think that’s going to be maintained. The Tampa depth is almost non-existent which forces Cooper to ride the top guys. And while Stamkos is still excellent on the power play, I don’t see that torpedoing a truly elite power play. Matthews has never had 30 PPP in a season, while Kucherov has had 50+ in each of the last two seasons.
5) Auston Matthews – The more I look at it, I kind of want to put Pasta ahead of Matthews, but at the end of the day, Matthews is the best bet to lead the league in goals and it felt like I was overthinking. Those PPP are lower than the other guys around here, as are the assists, but the assists are due to take an uptick, and we can bank on him having elite even strength production. The biggest question about Matthews is will he stay healthy? He’s missed last than ten games for each of the last four seasons, including only one game missed last year, which is encouraging. Matthews is the first guy here that I don’t think is capable of being the #1 overall forward in a season. We’ve already seen the other four do it, and Matthews isn’t going to put up the A or PPP to ever get to #1. Even a nice 69 goal season only had him the #7 forward last season (albeit very close to #4) because of those holes.
6) David Pastrnak – Back to back 110 point seasons for Pasta while pushing towards five shots per game puts him firmly in this tier. He’s proven that Bergeron’s retirement wasn’t going to hurt him. If anything, he showed that he is capable of driving everything by himself, as he barely played with Marchand last season either. I ultimately put him last because I don’t think he’s quite capable of reaching the heights that the other three can, but we’re still talking about a guy putting up 110 points here. Combined with the shot rate, he has to be a tier above the next group of guys.
7) Mikko Rantanen – This tier goes into the Top 20. Another 40 goal, 100 point season from Rantanen, who had above-average shots and elite PPP as well. Rantanen’s floor is clearly the highest of everyone left, which is why I slotted him at the top of the tier. Assuming health, you’re pretty much locked into a top ten season while hitting all of the categories well off the rip. It gives you the easiest path to proceed going forward as well. There won’t be an easier ranking outside of McDavid 1st and MacKinnon 2nd than Rantanen in the seventh spot.
8) Matthew Tkachuk – Despite a dreadful start to the season, Tkachuk still finished as a top ten forward. That’s with only 26 goals after scoring 40+ in the previous two seasons. That’s because Tkachuk crushes everything else. He’s had at least 60 assists in the previous three seasons, an elite plus-minus, great hits and PIM, plus very good PPP. That floor puts Tkachuk as a slam dunk first round pick.
9) Artemi Panarin – Panarin finally broke through the 100 point barrier and did it with ease, putting up 120 points. We know the assists and PPP are going to be incredible. The question is whether or not the goals and shots can repeat themselves. I feel safe to say that the 49 goals won’t, considering his previous career high was 32. Before last season, Panarin would regularly have 2.5 shots per game, occasionally towards 3. Last season, Panarin almost reached four per game. That kind of jump is unparalleled, especially from a 32 year old. Given the Lafreniere breakout, I don’t think we see a repeat of that level. I think Panarin will fall somewhere in-between, which slots him here after being the #6 forward last season.
10) Kirill Kaprizov – As mentioned the other day, I wanted to get Guentzel into the Top 10. There were a couple other guys considered as well. The more I looked at, the more I couldn’t put anyone else ahead of Kaprizov. He’s scored 40 goals in every full season he’s been in the league, and he played at a 40 goal pace in the COVID-shortened season. The shots are elite, the PPP reached a career high, and the assists went back to 50 last season. I also think we see Rossi take a big step forward this season, which would help Kaprizov. So would a fully healthy Zuccarello. I think we see him get back towards the 47+61 we saw in 21-22, especially because he gets more minutes now than he did then.
That’s all for now guys. I’ll have the rest of the Top 20 out by the end of the week. As always, feel free to ask any questions, leave any comments, or give any suggestions below. Thanks for reading, take care!
