Fantasy Hockey Advice

Right off the bat it doesn’t look like David Backes had a bad season:  24G/30A/17PPP/+15/101PIM/234SOG….  Well actually, on second glance, that is a pretty good season…  “Why do you hate David Backes?”  I don’t hate David Backes VTB.  In fact I’m not even sure why I thought my preseason “bust” prediction for him was accurate….  Aaaahhh, I see.  Here is what I wrote: “I still like St. Louis in general this year, but I’ve never been that high on Backes as a fantasy player and my view of him hasn’t changed this year.  Lets face some facts: In his career, he has 102 Goals and 116 Assists in 364 Career games.  He had career highs last year in every category (except PIM’s) but I saw it as more of a peak season than a harbinger of a huge breakout this year.  I’m expecting a drop in every category so buyer beware…”  First sentence?  Correct.  3rd Sentence?  Will prove to be correct.  Last Sentence?  Mostly correct (He improved in PIM’s by 8 and SOG’s by 23)… And that, my friends, is C.Y.A. 101….

Mark Streit – D (NYI):  Here’s another “meh” pick from me.  There was some good, some bad, some toast, some butter….mmmmmmm….. sorry I like to have breakfast food late at night…  Back to Streit:  On the positive side, he had 40 Assists.  On the flip side of positive, which I think is un-positive.  Or is it non-positive?  Either way along with those 40 Assists Streit had a measely 7 Goals and was an abysmal -27.  If his +/- were a temperature, it would be the coldest day in America this year.  It got so bad that the Islanders installed an up-to-the-minute chart above the scoreboard showing Streit’s +/- versus the National debt…

Dan Boyle – D (SJ):  ”Meh” pick #3 (I’ve spoken to Grey about making “Mr. Meh” the official mascot of Razzball. Just take off the hat and the uniform and Voila!)…   And yeah Dan Boyle had a decent year but much like most of his teammates, the decline is in full effect.

James Wisniewski - D (Cls):  “Wizzy wizzy wizzy, can’t you see?  You’re more injury proned than Sidney Crosby…”  And there is my rapping debut.  I will now retire…

Mike Richards – C (LA):  I live very close to Los Angeles, so believe me I’m fully aware of Richards’ season.  He is so unpopular right now if he ran against Kim Kardashian for Mayor of Glendale he’d lose in a landslide…

Jeff Skinner - C/RW (Car):  I’d like to think that after his awful season (and a real step back from his ROY season) Jeff Skinner will be fawned over as a bounce-back or “sleeper” next pre-season.  I say hogwash.  He’s just not that good.  And he hasn’t been properly motivated.  If I were running the Hurricane’s I’d fire the head coach and hire  this guy.

Roberto Luongo – G (Van):  So what can I say?  Sometimes you just have to just pull a huge name out and imagine a scenario where he doesn’t perform….   Maybe I was confused back in September and thought playoff stats counted this year…

Danny Briere – C/LW (Phi):  Actually if I had Briere in the same post as Luongo then I knew playoff stats didn’t count…  The real question now though?  Can Briere’s post-season awesomeness overcome the Penguin title wave bearing down on Philadelphia?  I say no.  Penguins win 4-3.  You heard it here 101st!

Scott Hartnell had a magical season for the 2011-2012 Philadelphia Flyers.  I won’t wax poetic (by the way, WTF is the meaning of “waxing poetic”?   And don’t Google it either.  HA!  SEE!  You don’t know what it mean’s either!)  But back to my point, Hartnell was one of my preseason heart-throbs and I have to say after 6 months I’m ready to tie the knot…  37 Goals, 30 Assists, +19, 23 Power Play Points, 232 Shots and 136 Penalty Minutes… Now that’s what I call fillin’ up the stat sheet.  It’s also what I call a career year.  If Scott Hartnell ever gets anywhere near 37 Goals and 23 Power Play Points in a season again I’ll eat my sock.  (And trust me if you saw my feet you’d know how serious a statement that is). But now is not the time to prognosticate.  Now is the time to praise those select few who will not only score a Goal on you, but also beat you to within an inch of your life…  Here are your 2011-2012 Hartnell’s Heroes:

Steve Ott – C/LW (Dal):  I initially didn’t want to talk about Ott (I thought he was in line for a career year), but all things considered Ott deserves to be on this prestigious list.  156PIM’s was good for 6th in the NHL and tack on the 11 Goals, 28 Assists, +5, and 8PPP”s and you have a productive fantasy contributor… I just hope Steve-O doesn’t hurt himself doing some ridiculous stunt in the offseason…

David Clarkson – RW (NJ):  Career Goals prior to this season: 52 in 300 Games…  Goals this year: 30 in 80 Games.  So what do I mean by that you ask?  “David Clarkson has seen the light!  The New Jersey Devils nurtured him for 5 season’s and now he is bearing fruit!”  Yeah sure, that works.  I know I don’t say this often, but that was some quality analysis VTB…

Milan Lucic – LW (Bos):  If I were a Bawstin native I’m sure this guy would’ve had top billing, but thankfully I’ve only spent 7 days of my 30 years of existence in bean-town.  And believe me I love the City, but every sports fan in Boston thinks they are Gawd’s gift to fandom.  Well from my experience I can tell you that outside of Boston Sports, they know very little.  Go to a Red Sox game and ask Sully who the Shortstop for the  Rockies is and he’ll start talking about how the Red Sox haven’t had a Shortstop since NOMAAAR left a decade ago.  Bring up Wayne Gretzky and you get a puzzled look followed by a dissertation on Bobby Orr’s greatness… But then again, maybe that’s what makes Bawstin sports fans so great.  They are to the sports world what the Tea Party is to the political world…

Steve Downie – LW/RW (Col):  It was the Summer of 2010.  I was courting Steve Downie pretty aggressively despite the restraining orders.  The 22 year old was coming off a 22 Goal, 24 Assist, 11Power Play Point, 208 Penalty Minute season.  Then the next season happened.  And then this season happened.  And now all I know is that sh*t happens and I’m down on Downie…

Nick Foligno – LW (Ott):  Our first new entrant onto this list came out of nowhere with 124 Penalty Minutes and 47 Points.  At first glance I’m not buying it, and at 2nd glance it looks like someone spray-painted “fluke” over his Wikipedia page…

Wayne Simmonds – RW (Phi):  Simmonds, Sealy, Serta, Spring Air, Stern’s & Foster, Chatham & Wells, and Miralux mattresses!  All at discounted prices!  We’ll beat anyone’s advertised price or your matress is ……………..

P.K. Subban – D (Mon):  The lone Defenseman on the list is none other than Potential Knockout Subban.  He had a down year offensively according to some, but you have to remember he won’t turn 23 for another month.  That monster season is still ahead of him and if you listen to me he’ll be on your team next year and the year after…. and the year after that… and the year after that…. and the year after….. okay you get the point.

Back in September I decided to throw out some deep sleepers and write glowingly about their potential to surprise us all.  Turns out only 2 of the 8 decided to wake up this season.  That’s an accuracy of 25%, which coincidentally is the exact same odds of getting a correct answer on a multiple-choice question.  (Wow that really made it sound bad didn’t it?)  But it really isn’t that bad so let me defend my much younger self:  These were guys I was advising taking as a late-round flier.  Not dudes you should build your team around.  Hopefully if you ended up drafting, say, Andrew Cogliano you dropped him shortly after realizing he still sucks (which was somewhere around the 3rd period of the Ducks 1st game for me).   Judging by the players I chose it seems I’m a sucker for former 1st Round NHL draft picks.  (Dually noted… wait, dooley?  Duelie?  Dooly?).  Next year I put more emphasis on opportunity, line-mates, and the potential to see time on the Power Play….  Seriously though, Cogliano?  Must have been back before I quit sniffin’ glue…

Anthony Stewart – RW (Car):  Wow and here I thought Cogliano was the really big terd in this punch bowl…  Jeez.  20 Points in 77 Games?  64 Shots on Goal?  Not to be a dick about it, but that’s less than a shot per game.  You could freeze a stick in an upright position 15 feet from the net and get more Shots than that.

T.J. Galiardi – LW (SJ):  Wait this guy is on the Sharks now?  When the he-double-hockey-sticks did that happen?

Michael Frolik - C/RW (Chi):  Man this list is getting worse with each name.  I feel like (eyebrows raised) frolik-ing in some traffic right now. 

Dustin Penner - LW/RW (LA):  “I could’ve had this tiny-joint in my LW rankings but I’m just not a huge fan.  In fact I bet most of you saw the name and went HUH?  Penner is a badass!!!   Well he’s not, just look at the stats.  HOWEVA, he did have 32G, 31A, 17PPP’s and 200+ shots 2 years ago for the Oil.  HOWEVA II (the return of HOWEVA) after his trade to the Kings last year he disappeared.  I think the 30 Goal guy is still lurking somewhere, but I have a funny feeling that was a career year.”   Pretty strange blurb there.  I basically threw out every reason why Penner sucks, and then said ‘F*CK IT!  DRAFT HIM ANYWAY!’   I’m starting to realize having the ability to instantly go back and see what you wrote is more curse than blessing…

Derek Stepan – C (NYR):  So technically I could’ve labeled Stepan a successful sleeper pick (17G/34A/+14/169SOG) but I won’t.  21 Goals last year and only 17 this year just doesn’t scream ‘success’.  10  more Assists are nice, but with players who are this far down your roster Goals are the key.  I’m not sure how I’ll feel about Stepan in a few months, but it’s important to remember he’s still just 21 years old.

Kevin Shattenkirk – D (StL):  For you loyal readers (hi Mom!), you know I’ve been extremely critical of Shattenkirk this season.  But that’s just because I love him and have high expectations for his career!  Oh no wait, that’s what my Mom says about me…  The season ending line however is just too good to be critical: 9G/34A/+20/18PPP’s/60PIM’s/178SOG.  Forgive me Shatty, I know now what you’ve done…

Tomas Fleischmann – LW/RW (Fla):  Ding ding ding!  The true winner of my Sleeper lottery emerges!  Flash went batshit crazy this year and exceeded even my lofty expectations.  Any time you can get this kind of production (27G/34A/22PPP’s/217SOG) from a guy you either A) drafted in the last round or B) plucked off the waiver wire it’s gonna be a good season  (wait I have Fleischmann in both leagues and my teams still sucked…  QUIET REALITY!  You’re ruining my best sleeper pick of 2011-2012!).. Now just don’t be surprised when he falls off the preverbial cliff next year…

And there you have it.  Not a completely terrible list but not something I wanna put on my resume either… Enjoy the weekend playoff games and don’t forget to follow Puck Daddy’s instructions for viewing Saturday’s playoff extravaganza! 

The gloating about my best preseason picks will happen sometime in the next couple days, but tonight I feel like talking about hockey, non fantasy division.  It’s going to be a great playoffs and Danny Briere and the Philadelphia Phlyers got it started in grand fashion.  For those new to playoff hockey I will let you in on a secret:  Danny Briere is a man amongst boys from April to June.  In his playoff career, Briere has 44 Goals and 54 Assists in 98 Games.  If you who failed addition in grade school, that’s exactly 1 Point Per Game.  In the regular season?  643 Points in 813 games, or 0.79 Points Per Game.  “He’s the Derek Jeter of hockey!”  Yes thank you VTB…  And in typical Derek Jeter fashion, Briere “sparked” his team with back to back Goals after Pittsburgh took a 3-0 lead.  If you’re a Penguin fan it’s time to start worrying.  The Flyers have underachieved all season and if Breezy can just be average, Philly is capable of beating anyone in the Eastern Conference.  In fact I find the whole “Western Conference is WIDE OPEN!” media talking point to be a joke.  The East is just as wide open, if not more.  Would any of you really be shocked if the #5 Seed Flyers or #7 seed Capitals made the Stanley Cup Finals?  And don’t give me the Goalie argument.  The Flyers made the Cup Finals just 2 years ago with a blahtoon of Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher.  Let me say that again in case it didn’t register for you:  MICHAEL LEIGHTON and BRIAN BOUCHER.   Playoff experience for a Goalie is highly overrated (Antti Niemi was the other Goalie in that 2010 Stanley Cup Final).   So since we’ve established that point, let me add another one:  The Flyers are one of 2 or 3 teams in the entire league who can keep pace with Pittsburgh offensively.  Be afraid Penguin fans, be very afraid…

Nashville Predators – Since they won yesterday and I wrote about these guys so eloquently (word of the day) on Monday I will just remind you of what I said:  “Outside of Pekka Rinne and Shea Weber, this team doesn’t have alot to offer to us fantasy geeks.  But if these guys can get past Detroit I like their chances of winning the Western Conference.  And right now, they’re a 22:1 underdog to win the Stanley Cup.  I can see it now:  Barry Trotz’s awkard post-game speech; Gary Bettmann awarding the championship to a team he knows just got him the worst TV ratings in 25 years; the completely unknown Owner; and of course Fisher-Wood taking it to a whole ‘nother level…”  I’m excited just thinking about it!  Go Preds!!!

Jonathan Quick – G (LA):  Another great game for Quick which leads me to my question of the night:  Is J-Quick’s underrated-ness a product of the fact that he’s an American born Goalie?  I used to think it’s just East Coast Bias, but now I’m starting to wonder if it’s a much more sinister plot led by Canadian Nationalists… or something…

Dustin Penner – LW (LA):  He did WHAT?  No way…  If Penner is anything, other than a LOAF, it’s a great example of playoff hockey.  Hero’s often come from the bowels of a team’s roster, and if there was ever any player who came from bowels it’s Dustin Penner…

Today we look at  some of my worst prognostications from 7 months ago.  The list is long and pretty damning, but then again I’m not a professional prognosticator – I just play one on this blog!  HIIIOOOOOOOO!!!  Ahem… Lets just get started shall we?   My first guest today…errr… disappointment is none other than Sid the concussed Kid.  I’m sure many of you are thinking:  “It was stupid to rank him #6 overall when he was still dealing with concussion issues back in September!”  And you’d be right.  Aren’t you a smart guy!  But in my defense, or D-IIII if you’re in the stands at a football game, it’d been over 6 months since his last concussion and when I was growing up, the remedy for a concussion was to shake your head back & forth and sniff a few smelling salts.  Then if you could recognize the 2 fingers the Coach was holding up, you were cured!!   No year long breaks spent “recovering”.  No worrying about getting “dizzy” or not being able to go outside in the day because of ”light” from the “sun”.  You can act like a man!  Alright in all seriousness though, I clearly underestimated the power of the “C” word this year and have learned a lesson.  Not as big a lesson as I learned when I underestimated the power of the other “C” word, but big nonetheless… As far as Sidney Crosby‘s ranking for next year?  Well you’ll have to wait and find out, but I can’t ignore the fact he only played in 22 Games and still had 37 Points…. as I wipe the druel collecting in my Goatee….  No!  Can’t!  Won’t!…………. 

Jarome Iginla – RW (Cgy):  This one really hurts cuz when I originally put together my rankings I had brotha Jarome down around number 20, then I dug a little deeper into his 2010-2011 season and liked what I saw so much I moved him all the way up to #10.  So what did I get for going out on a limb with a 34 year old who was just a year removed from his worst season ever?   Well lets just say the limb snapped, much like they’re prone to do with eldery gentleman…

Martin St. Louis – RW (TB):  Speaking of elderly gentleman, heeeeeere’s Marty!  Now I’m sure if you drafted St. Louis 7th overall (which is where I had him ranked) it wouldn’t have been impossible to still have a good team.  He did put up 74 points afterall.  But the real problem was the complete and almost biblical drop in Power Play Points.  He went from averaging 39PPP’s each of the last 2 seasons to 16 this year!   SIXTEEN!  The last time he had fewer, Bob Probert and Stu Grimson were still around concussing…… ERRRRRR….. fighting each other.  The real surprising part about St. Louis’ disappointing season is that Stamkos had his best season ever.  If I’d had known that before doing last year’s rankings Marty probably would’ve cracked the Top 5.  So technically it could have been worse right?  RIGHT???

Ryan Getzlaf – C (Ana):  In all honesty Getzlaf probably deserves top billing on this post (I had him ranked #13), but he helped bring my team a Stanley Cup so what can I say?  I’m a sucker for hardware.  What I won’t be a sucker for is ranking Getz anywhere near the Top 25-30 ever again, let alone the top 13!  In fact this season was so bad I don’t even wanna yuck up this post with the numbers, go look them up for yourself if you wanna see just how truly god-awful Ryan Getzlaf was in 2011-2012.

Ryan Kesler – C (Van):  I oscillated (word of the day!) back and forth with Kesler.  He missed the first 5 games of the season with an injury and I personally believe he never fully recovered from it.  HOWEVA, when you rank a guy 14th overall and he goes 22G/27A/+11/19PPP’s/56PIM/222SOG, something was off in you’re calculations.  Or mine.  You know what I mean…

Keith Yandle – D (Phx):  Okay it’s official I will never trust another Defenseman ever again.  I stuck my neck out and ranked Yandle as my Top Defenseman (23rd overall) and he proceeded to slash my throat with his stick.  It was a solid season, but when I recommend taking him ahead of the holy trinity of Weber-Lidstrom-Chara, “solid” just doesn’t cut it.  And I’m just gonna leave it at that before I beat myself up too much…  “He plays for the Coyotes!  Don’t  you remember Mike Green and Drew Doughty from 2 years ago!”   NO!  STOP!!!

Alexander Semin – LW/RW (Wsh):  Man I’ve sure got some doozies (or dookies?) in my Top 30 don’t I?  Semin was supposed to be a Goal scoring specialist who couldn’t stay healthy, but instead he played in 77 games and scored just 21 Goals. I feel the same way a porn-star must feel after having sex with a regular dude:  What a disappointing load…

Jimmy Howard – G (Det):  “What is the great Jimmy Howard doing on this list?  He had a Vezina caliber season for the Mighty Red Wings!”  Yes I know he had a good season VTB and that’s exactly why he’s on this list.  I had him as one of my “busts” in the preseason.  Damn you J-HO!  Damn you!!!

So that does it.  What did we learn from all this?  It’s pretty simple:  Never trust Defenseman, Russians, concussion victims or the elderly when drafting for Fantasy Hockey…