I had a Nashville Predator lede all set to go for you today, but apparently Bridgestone Arena is under more liquid than the pile of mashed potatoes you assaulted with that steaming gravy boat at your Thanksgiving dinner table. Never fear, MarmosDad is here with a quick pivot to another winger for you today. After looking through our names, I noticed a bit of a pattern. There were quite a few guys with the name “…son”, so I give you the “-Sons” Of Thanksgiving Anarchy. Hopefully your weekend has been good and there hasn’t been too many anarchistic uncles that dipped into the Bud Light cooler one too many times.
Our first ‘son’ is easily the best of them all. Jason Robertson, (DK: $8,000) is about as chalk as we’re going to find in the winger bin this weekend. The Dallas LW is tied for second in the league in points with 31 in 20 games. Robertson is also tied with Connor McDavid/Bo Horvat for the league lead in goals (16), and just tied a Dallas record for points in 13 consecutive games on Wednesday. The only thing that might slow him down today is that his opponent isn’t exactly a pushover as Dallas plays in Colorado.
As far as today’s schedule is concerned, we’ve got a shorter main slate than usual with just 6 games to choose from that start at 6:30 PM ET or later. It gives us fewer players to consider and makes us focus a bit more on those mis-matchups that should give us more potential points for our guys. Let’s get to it!
C – John Tavares, DK: $6,400 – I could see playing a bit of a Leaf stack today, despite the Pens turning things around over the last four games. Tavares has 4 goals in his last 5 games and sits in the top 20 in scoring (23 points in 21 GP). The powerplay time is there, and the potential to put up some healthy numbers is as well. At the very least he should be a source of shots and maybe a few PP points today, especially with some of the other big names out with injury.
C – Sidney Crosby, DK: $7,300 – I think we saved enough dollars with our other picks that we can afford to splurge on a big name for our other C slot. Of the games that look the most appealing, I think the smart pick is Sidney Crosby at home vs the Leafs. Crosby has been productive with 27 points in 20 games and has managed to average a goal every two games. Matt Murray is back as the #1 for Toronto, (and played well on Wednesday night on the road), so it might be a tough sell here. But the Leafs are coming off back to back games and since Murray played Friday afternoon, let’s assume backup Erik Kallgren gets the call today.
W – Reilly Smith, DK: $4,600 – The Nashville arena flood sent me into a bit of a scramble to fix up our lineup, but with just enough cash left over I think we have a good replacement. Reilly Smith has 10 goals in 21 games and has had a couple of double digit FPTS nights in his last 4 GP. I nearly went with Anders Lee instead, but Smith on the 2nd lines (PP and even strength) seems like a better bet than the NYI forward.
W – Chandler Stephenson, DK: $5,200 – I wanted to head back to Vegas for a mid-priced winger to sandwich between our chalk and bargain plays. Vegas’s “Son” is from our last game on the slate tonight. The Golden Knights face a Vancouver team that has allowed the 5th highest goals (79). Mark Stone or Jonathan Marchessault may be the more exciting wingers here, but Stephenson has been just as productive as these more recognizable names. Line 1 time with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone is never a bad thing, and Stephenson has that privilege in both 5-on-5 time and PP1 minutes. I can see him putting up some FPTS at home vs the Canucks today.
D – Damon Severson, DK: $2,600 – Our pick here isn’t really about Severson putting up a bunch of points for a top team. It’s more about him getting some time on PP2 and being a go-to defender on a team that’s on a roll. Severson may not get a bushel of apples in this one, but he’s skating over 18:00 a night and should contribute in some other categories (BLK/SOG). Let’s take this “Son” from Jersey and hope for some points tonight.
D – Rasmus Sandin, DK: $2,700 – It feels like we’ve flip flopped this guy and Liljegren the last few weeks, but anyone playing on a team with this much firepower up front needs to be considered. Especially at this price. Leaf fans are sounding the alarms with the recent announcement of Morgan Reilly’s injury, (out 6 weeks), but that presents a buying opportunity for the younger D-man in both season long leagues and DFS lineups. Sandin is slotted in at that coveted PP1 D spot and skated over 22 minutes on Wednesday night. He’s worth the gamble on the road against Pittsburgh.
UTIL – Sam Reinhart, DK: $4,800 – I went back and forth between Reinhart and Sam Bennett for this spot. Ultimately, I went with Reinhart because he’s slotted in on PP1. Reinhart hasn’t exactly blown the doors off in Florida this season, (10 PTS in 20 GP), but in DFS-land, it’s all about what have you done for me lately. Reinhart has 4 of his 6 goals this year in his last 5 games, and faces a Blues team that ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in goals and shots allowed. Just a caveat if you’re looking for man-advantage points, though. St. Louis is the second least penalized team in the league so PP time may be limited here.
G – Vitek Vanecek, DK: $8,100 – I’ve written Vanecek up recently, but it feels like a disservice to not recommend the main goalie on a team that’s coming off of a 13 game win streak. That said, depending on their starter last night Vanecek may not play tonight. I would bet that Vanecek gets this one at home (with Schmid getting the road start last night), but at the very worst Schmid starting today would give us a lot of extra money to play with if that’s the pivot. Bottom line – playing the starter on a piping hot Devils team is the right call today.
*EDIT – Schmid did get the start in Buffalo last night and Vanecek is the confirmed starter at home today.*
Well, after applying all of our posted dollar values from DraftKings we’re sitting at $49,700 for the night. You can tweak a bit if you want to maximize but I think this is as close as we can get to using a bunch of the skaters from the favored teams.
Here’s a couple of moneyline picks and an under to play…
The Sea Bass : (Favorite)
Vegas (-175) at home to Vancouver seems like the best favorite for today. The Devils host the Caps as well, but I feel more comfortable putting money against Bo Horvat and the Canucks than Ovechkin. Plus, the Canucks are giving up an average of 3.70 goals per game against the Caps’ 2.86.
The Happy Gilmore : (Underdog)
The Thanksgiving turkeys might not be the only birds that are doomed this weekend. The Penguins are at home to an offensively strong Leafs squad, who are somehow underdogs in this one. Yes, this game is in Pittsburgh. Yep, Toronto is playing the second game in a back to back tonight. And, the Leafs will turn to their backup (Erik Kallgren), after Matt Murray played yesterday. Finally, the Leafs are certainly missing a few good defensemen. It seems like things may be stacked against them, so I get it if you want to look elsewhere..but I still think they’re the best gamble for an underdog play tonight at (+130).
The Claude Lemieux : (Turtle/Flop)
Colorado (-130) at home against anyone is a tough one to bet against, but Dallas (+110) has lost in regulation just once in their last 7 games. Even with the Avs game postponed last night, Colorado still had to travel back home to get ready for this one. If Scotty Wedgewood can stand his ground, the seemingly lock pick of Colorado might be more flop than favorite.
That’s it for this week! I hope everyone enjoyed it. If you have any comments or questions, feel free to leave them below or give me a shout @MarmosDad.
