Only able to break the 50-point mark once back in 2010-11 suddenly Alexander Steen is keeping pace with Ovie atop the league leaderboards and the biggest question in everyone’s minds is “Will it last?” My first instinct is to say no, it won’t. The biggest indicator that the Steen Goal Scoring Express is soon to derail is that his shooting percentage sits at a whopping 25.3%. Lets be realistic here, no one is going to score a goal once every four shots over the course of 82 games so expect that number to drop closer to his career average of 9.9%. Beyond his established personal averages, just 37 players in the history of the NHL have finished with a shooting percentage higher than 25% (100 shot minimum) and I think it's reasonable to say Steen will not become number 38 this year. It's not just the high volume of shots that are leading to Steen's early success, though, his Corsi numbers have long shown him to be a critical cog in the puck possession game and that keeps him in the mix for chances more often than not for the Blues. Unfortunately, outside of his inflated shooting percentage he isn’t doing much different than he has in previous seasons. His TOI numbers remain mostly consistent with previous years both at even strength and on the powerplay, and his shot totals and locations also line up, so what gives? Luck, and eventually it will run out. I think it’s reasonable to expect him to finish the year closer to 35-goals than 50 and with few assists to add to that he’s likely given fantasy owners more than half of what he’s going to give all season, so sell high where you can. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy hockey:
At just 5’9” he is one of the smallest players in the league, but Torey Krug’s game is anything but. Debuting with four goals in five games in last year’s Eastern Conference Semifinals he helped the B’s topple the Rangers and hasn’t slowed down one bit to start his rookie season. Currently tied for first in goals scored among defensemen with seven, he averages nearly 18 minutes a game and what’s more, he’s getting top powerplay minutes as well. Amid a roster dripping with talent from top to bottom it has been Krug, the rookie, that boosted the B’s lackluster powerplay and that’s just what the league needed, the B’s strengthening one of the few weak parts of their game. At any rate, being as small as he is as a defensemen does come with some increased injury risk, but so far Krug has shown himself to be tough as nails taking big hits and quickly shaking them off. To be successful he'll have to avoid those hits rather than endure them, as even the biggest guys have been felled by the plague of concussions in recent years. Most of the time he relies on his quickness and good vision to avoid getting hit too hard and while there are some concerns about his ability to handle larger power forwards on the defensive end, it’s all cylinders go where it matters to us. Going into the season Krug was more known than he would have been because of last year’s playoff performance, but he’s still available in 27% of Yahoo! Leagues. Listen, he has a booming shot, great hands, explosive acceleration and a tremendous hockey IQ so this rookie isn’t just for keeper leagues. If he's on Team USA's radar he should definitely be on yours, so add him where you can. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy hockey last night:
Jimmy Howard is on pace to start 75 games for the Red Wings and win just 21 one of them. I don’t think anyone thought Howard would revert back to his 2010-11 form so completely, but the similarities between that abysmal season and this year’s campaign are startling. This isn't about Howard, though, as he's been so bad it has opened the door for a once lauded, since (somewhat) forgotten name to reappear on your fantasy radar! Jonas Gustavsson. As recently as 2009 the Monster was touted as the best goalie in the world outside the NHL. Think about that, the best goalie in the world! So what happened? When he arrived in Toronto expectations were high and he responded by posting a decent rookie campaign with 16 Wins, 2.87 GAA, .902 SV% in 42 GP (39 starts), but the wheels quickly came off and after two consecutive disappointing years he was shipped off to the Wings. Was this a case of not living up to the hype? I don't think so. Rumors have it that the Leafs’ coaching staff tried to eff with his mechanics because they felt his style was too unorthodox for long term success at the NHL level. If true, that could very well be the source of his less than stellar play and likely some injuries as well. This season it appears that the Wings' coaching staff aren't repeating the mistakes of others and the Monster is gobbling up pucks left and right. Last season is a throw away due to the lockout, but this year he looks a hell of a lot better than Howard, doesn’t he? The sample size is still small but he looks absolutely fantastic in limited work so far. If Howard continues to struggle and Gustavsson continues to play well it won’t be long before the Wings start giving the Monster more starts. Does he have a chance to take over the starting job outright? No, I don't think so. Howard has a huge contract and the Wings simply can't afford to relegate him to a backup. Despite that, he’s absolutely worth adding in deep leagues and well worth keeping a close eye on in standard formats. Here’s what else I saw last night in fantasy hockey:
Steven Stamkos had successful surgery on his broken tibia and is now wearing a removable cast and set to begin an “aggressive” rehab program. I’m not sure how you can “aggressively” make you broken tibia heal, but mmkay then. Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’ve always been a big fan of Ryan Miller. I’ve been following his career since he lead Michigan State to the Frozen Four back in 2001 and won the Hobey Baker for his efforts. Please, blog, may I have some more?
For the better part of the last decade Josh Harding has been stuck behind the oft injured but immensely talented Nik Backstrom in Minnesota. It kind of makes me feel for the guy, but then I remember he is getting paid an awful lot of money to sit there and wait for Backstorm to get hurt and every year which he does like clockwork. Please, blog, may I have some more?
