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It wouldn’t be the first time that a Sabres trade acquisition got off to a hot start before flaming out, but this one looks different.  Bowen Byram was a monster again on Tuesday, scoring two goals on four shots finishing +4 in the 7-3 win over the Red Wings.  They’ll have to win their next two games against the Islanders and Red Wings again, but the Sabres are creeping back onto the fringe of the playoff race.  Byram’s workload in his three games as a Sabre are that of a #1 defenseman, even if that honor goes to Dahlin.  There’s no doubting Byram’s ability, and he’s looking like a guy who can be a huge difference maker down the stretch this season and beyond.  He’s clear must own everywhere.  Let’s take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:

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We’re very close to the All-Star break with most teams starting their extended break on Sunday.  If you look at defensemen production, specifically in goals, you see notable names at the top.  Dahlin leads defensemen in goals, and then there’s a four way tie behind him with notables like Makar and Hughes.  None of that is a surprise.  Weegar is one of those tied with Makar and Hughes, which is very surprising, but he went into the season locked into a big role, so let’s assume he had some good fortune.  But Thomas Harley?  He’s a player I really liked in dynasties, but to be one goal off the league lead for defensemen?  Not even close to my radar.  Harley scored two goals on Saturday, including the overtime winner for a second straight game, in the 5-4 win over the Capitals.  That gives Harley a whopping 12 goals in 46 games.  “Even with Heiskanen back, Harley was a factor.  I’m still holding Harley even though I wasn’t expecting to when Heiskanen came back.  He’s been that good for the Stars.”  And that’s me quoting me from three days ago copying what Grey does!  Somehow, Harley is still available in almost two-thirds of fantasy leagues.  With the pool of defensemen dropping off hard at the bottom, Harley should be owned in all formats.  Let’s take a look at what else happened over the weekend:

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It’s hard to imagine the first half of the season going any worse for the Devils.  In terms of points percentage, they’re in the second wild card spot in a season that many expected them to push for the Metro Division title and to be one of the Cup favorites.  They’ve been brutalized by injuries, but their main offseason acquisition rescued them on Monday.  After giving up four straight goals turning a 3-1 lead into a 5-3 deficit, Tyler Toffoli scored with 16 seconds left in the second period, and eventually completed a hat trick in overtime to beat the Golden Knights 6-5.  That brings Toffoli to 20 goals on the season, ahead of last season’s 34 goal pace.  The loss of Hamilton for the regular season has been massive, and J. Hughes being out is too much for them to stomach.  The good news for the Devils is they only have two more games before they have 10 days off.  There’s a chance that Hughes will be back at that point.  As for Toffoli, he’s a bit behind the pace that I hoped for, but overall, it’s hard to complain when he’s on pace for 37 goals.  Here’s to hoping he keeps the shot rate up, as getting back to last season’s rate would give him a good chance of maintaining his current level of play.  It’s the difference between being a potential top 50 player and a bottom end hold.  Let’s take a look at what else happened the last couple of nights:

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There’s nothing else that T.J. Oshie has to prove on the ice.  He’s won the Stanley Cup and was one of the best players on his team.  He became an Olympic hero for his performance in 2014.  Oshie is about to play in his 1000th NHL game.  This season has been a struggle for Oshie, but he’s really turned it around lately, culminating in his best game of the season.  Against his old team, Oshie scored a hat trick on five shots.  This isn’t just a little blip on the radar either.  Oshie has a point in six of his last seven games, and the very encouraging thing is his shot rate has been excellent.  Even at his peak, he was never a plus in shot rate, but in his last nine games, Oshie has 30 SOG.  It’s an even better rate if we go to a shorter sample.  He’s found chemistry with Patches and Strome, and the Capitals surprisingly continue to hang around the playoff picture.  While he’s playing this well, Oshie is in elite streamer territory.  The schedule is about to get very difficult, but they do get another game with St. Louis before that happens.  Let’s take a look at what else happened the last two nights:

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It wouldn’t be this Buffalo Sabres season if they didn’t blow out an elite team after getting buried by a bottom feeder.  The Sabres beat Toronto 9-3 on Thursday, becoming the first team in 40 years to score 9 goals in a game after conceding 9 in their previous game.  Does this change my opinion on anyone on the Sabres?  No, not really, they’re just going to be an up and down team.  The one notable thing is that Jack Quinn scored a goal on three shots with four PIM in his second game of the season.  Quinn had a solid rookie season but suffered an Achilles injury in the offseason, setting back his sophomore season.  It’s encouraging that even with a fully healthy lineup, Quinn’s line was getting plenty of usage.  He’s a middling streamer for now, but there’s upside to an elite streamer this season, while Quinn has clear potential to be a permanent hold for years in dynasties.  Let’s take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:

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Nothing like a hat trick to regain the NHL lead in goals.  Especially in what was a timed game.  Brock Boeser finished Tuesday with a natural hat trick, securing a 4-1 win over the Lightning.  That brings him to a whopping 21 goals, well on his way to obliterating his previous career high.  They aren’t the same type of player, but it reminds of Kreider’s 50 goal year.  A solid player who has everything go right for a year.  Now, it’s still early that Boeser is far from a lock for 50, but if he stays healthy, 40 is close to a lock.  It’s far from sustainable going to the next few seasons, but the important thing is Boeser is back on his A game ignoring the good fortune.  Let’s take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:

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It’s safe to say that we’ve reached the point that nobody doubts Boston anymore.  Their two top centers retired, and yet the team is chugging along at 16-4-3.  Their new captain was the reason they won both games over the weekend.  Brad Marchand scored the overtime winner against the Leafs on Saturday, his eighth shot on goal in the contest.  He followed it up with a natural hat trick, scoring all three goals for the Bruins in their 3-1 win over the Blue Jackets.  That gives Marchand 11+12 in 24 games, almost exactly a point per game.  The big thing is his shot rate is at an all-time high.  In my preseason rankings, I was uncertain on Marchand’s ceiling, but speculated his shot rate could improve without Bergeron.  He’s at exactly 3.5 per game, and with his elite PIM as always, Marchand is still in the conversation for a top 20 player.  At 35 years old, Marchand is showing no signs of slowing down.  Let’s take a look at what else happened over the weekend:

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Hello everyone. Welcome to the fifth edition of JOT This Down!

Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume four. I appreciate it.  Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.

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Nobody was expecting much from the Ducks this season, but they’re currently on a five game winning streak to get them to a 6-4 record.  On Wednesday, their best player (for now) carried them, as Troy Terry scored a hat trick and an assist with six shots in the 4-3 OT win.  That brings Terry to 5+4 in ten games, averaging exactly three shots per game.  Terry is one of those guys who is always close to the fringe one way or the other.  Right now, I have him as a bottom end hold, but I don’t expect that to hold for the rest of the season.  However, unlike the past few seasons, the talent around him is at such a higher level that he has more upside than usual.  While it probably won’t last, you can see the core coming together for the Ducks, and it’s only a matter of time until they become a force again.  Let’s take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:

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The Oilers are peaking at the right time, as they’ve gone from battling for a playoff spot to battling for the Pacific Division.  It started with a 5-4 win over the Coyotes on Monday, before a dominating 7-4 win over the Golden Knights on Tuesday.  The man leading the way was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who continued his career season.  RNH had a goal and an assist on Monday, before following that up with a goal and four assists with two shots against Vegas.  That brings RNH up to a whopping 96 points (35+61), blowing away his previous career high of 69 points.  96, much nicer than 69.  McDavid and Draisaitl justifiably get most of the attention surrounding the Oilers, but the impact that RNH has made this season can’t be understated. Adding a third 100+ point player to the mix is insane, and Edmonton has as good of a set of forwards as there is in the league.  They’re a bit light on games the rest of the way, but their schedule is among the softest in the league, so look for the studs to continue to crush.  As for where RNH will rank next season, that’s an extremely difficult question to answer.  I have to expect some regression, but how much?  Given the mediocre shot rate, I assume I’ll have RNH towards the bottom of the top 50?  If he’s only a PPG guy, there’s plenty of value but it would be a bit underwhelming compared to other guys in his range i.e. his floor is lower.  Let’s take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:

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This year couldn’t be going any worse for the Columbus Blue Jackets.  A horrible record, terrible injuries to key players, and dreadful goaltending have sunk them from the beginning.  Now that they’re in the Bedard race, their fans probably aren’t even happy that they won on Tuesday night.  Their prize free agent signing, Johnny Gaudreau, dominated the game with two goals and three assists, plus six shots on goal.  That brings him up to 62 points in 64 games, a far cry from last season, but not a complete disaster.  The question isn’t about what to expect from Gaudreau for the rest of this season, but going forward.  He turns 30 in the summer, but I’m not expecting drop off in the short term.  Can he approach 100 points again?  I have my doubts, but if Columbus is lucky enough to get Bedard, it can’t be ruled out.  Bedard would be the perfect compliment, and Fantilli wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize.  I was lower on Gaudreau than consensus so I don’t have any of him this year, but there’s always a chance that with his talent, he makes a huge difference over the last month.  Let’s take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:

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Another star player has made his way to the Eastern Conference well ahead of the trade deadline.  We already had Horvat and Tarasenko move, and now we have a former Conn Smythe winner.  Ryan O’Reilly was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, along with Noel Acciari, for a bevy of draft picks.  The Wild also acquired a pick for retaining salary, and there were prospects involved, but none of them are particularly relevant.  For fantasy, we care about RoR and Acciari.  Let’s start with Acciari because it’s easier.  Acciari moved right onto Toronto’s fourth line.  He scored a goal against the Blackhawks on Sunday, and is piling up hits.  He’ll be a deep league value for his hits and decent goal rate.  O’Reilly is an interesting debate.  He’s easily having the worst offensive season in the last decade.  On the other hand, RoR has been playing much better lately, and he went right onto the second line with Tavares and Marner.  He dished an assist in his debut on Saturday playing just over 16 minutes in the 5-1 blowout against Montreal.  He also won 12 of 14 draws, which is notable that he bumped Tavares from the faceoff circle most of the time.  I’m not rushing to pick up RoR, mostly because we know that he’s not cracking Toronto’s first power play unit.  That said, there’s upside in Toronto that he couldn’t touch in St. Louis again.  If you want to stream him on Tuesday against the Sabres and see where it goes, I can get behind that.  

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