After his big breakout last season, Martin Necas has had a rough go of it this season. Much like his team, he's started to turn his game around over the last month. Since coming back from a two week injury on January 19th, when Necas had 9 goals on the season, he has seven goals in seven games, culminating with a natural hat trick in the first period against the Avalanche on Thursday. On top of the goals, Necas has been taking a ton of shots. He's averaging five shots on goal per game in the past seven, with 4+ in six of the last seven games. If you're lucky enough to be in the 20% of leagues that Necas is available in, grab him immediately. If you've held onto him, here's to hoping he keeps up this form to make up for the poor first half. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
Out of the top ranked goalies in the preseason, only Hellebuyck has played at an elite level. This is a big reason why I don't take goalies in the first two rounds, if not longer, because the variance is too high. My #1 goalie going into the season was Jake Oettinger. He didn't play well in the first half and also missed time due to injury. The All-Star break proved to be a good reset, as Oettinger was out of his mind on Tuesday. Oettinger made 47 saves in the 2-1 win over the Sabres, stealing the game for the Stars. After tomorrow, there's only two back-to-backs in the next four weeks for the Stars. We should see Oettinger get plenty of action, and I'd bet on him finishing the season strong. I don't do midseason rankings because I don't see a lot of value for the time it takes. You have the team you have, and if you are making trades, you need to target your weaknesses to improve. That said, if I was ranking for the rest of the season, Oettinger would still be a top five goalie. I'm not betting against him. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
I’ll be honest, I don’t have a good open for the weekend post. But “The Wire’ is indisputably the best TV show of all-time. I can watch it every time through and see something I didn’t before. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Before the season, if you told me I was going to be writing about an Ingram, I would have assumed I was needed to write about basketball in an emergency. Instead, we're two months into the season, and the #3 overall goalie is a 26 year old who played 30 mediocre to bad games in his NHL career. Connor Ingram posted a 26 save shutout in the 6-0 win over the Capitals on Monday. Ingram now has an 11-3 record with a 2.23/.930. I was bullish on an Arizona goalie in preseason, turns out I should have looked at the backup. Do I expect it to last? I would lean towards no, but crazier things have happened. Arizona is playing excellent hockey, and it's not only because of Ingram. Somehow, he's still available in over 50% of leagues. Even if he turns into a pumpkin in two weeks, it was worth the speculative add, because the upside is through the roof. Let's see what else happened over the last two nights:
Hello everyone. Welcome to the sixth edition of JOT This Down!
Thank you to everyone who provided feedback in volume five. I appreciate it. Keep the questions, comments, and concerns coming. I’ll be here all week to answer any and everything you may have.
Nobody was expecting much from the Ducks this season, but they're currently on a five game winning streak to get them to a 6-4 record. On Wednesday, their best player (for now) carried them, as Troy Terry scored a hat trick and an assist with six shots in the 4-3 OT win. That brings Terry to 5+4 in ten games, averaging exactly three shots per game. Terry is one of those guys who is always close to the fringe one way or the other. Right now, I have him as a bottom end hold, but I don't expect that to hold for the rest of the season. However, unlike the past few seasons, the talent around him is at such a higher level that he has more upside than usual. While it probably won't last, you can see the core coming together for the Ducks, and it's only a matter of time until they become a force again. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
We know that Jack Hughes has dominated the first three weeks of the season, but his older brother has started off extremely well, while his teammate and younger brother is starting to get going as well. Let's start with Quinn Hughes. On Friday, Hughes scored two goals on four shots, adding two PIM. Against the Rangers, he had three shots on goal, which sounds disappointing, but it illustrates a large change in Quinn's game. The one thing that has been holding Quinn back for years in terms of fantasy value is his shot rate. This was his sixth straight game with 3+ shots, and 7th in eight total games. It signifies a huge chance in his game, one that does fantasy owners wonders. He has eight points in eight games and certainly can come close to repeating last season's 76 points in 78 games, if not topping it. He was always an elite #2 with flaws, but now, he's a #1. Sure, the hits are dreadful, but everything else is magical.
Steve Yzerman can't ask for a better start from his big offseason swing. After his first game without a point as a Red Wing, Alex DeBrincat followed it up with a hat trick and an assist with five shots in Sunday's win over the Flames. That brings DeBrincat to a whopping eight goals and four assists in his first six games with Detroit. He's clicked with Dylan Larkin (two goals and three assists over two games) to give Detroit an elite first line. We've seen DeBrincat score 41 goals twice before playing with Kane, so it's not like this is completely out of nowhere. While this shooting percentage won't last, given how much Detroit is rolling the first line, I'm expecting career highs across the board for DeBrincat. There's a real chance Detroit plays its way into the playoff picture this season if the first line can win its matchups on a regular basis. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
On its face, Evan Rodrigues having an assist with four shots and two PIM in the 4-3 win over the Devils doesn't stand out as anything special. However, it was another data point that the Panthers are going to heavily depend on Rodrigues. He's remained on the first line and first power play unit which alone puts you on the fringe. While I think he's a poor offensive finisher, Rodrigues loves to take horrible shots which is a big value in fantasy. Rodrigues is available in over 80% of leagues, but I've seen enough for him to be a hold in all formats. It could dry up when Bennett returns, but based on where Rodrigues is playing on the PP, I don't see Bennett taking that spot. There's a chance Rodrigues is the best fantasy player who went undrafted in most leagues, so get him now. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
You guys know I like to start my posts about players who could be available in a large percentage of leagues that you can target on the waiver wire. After all, being aggressive at the bottom of your roster is a huge factor in fantasy hockey. However, sometimes a player has a weekend so good that you have to give him his due. This time, that player is Auston Matthews. Matthews scored three goals on Saturday, recording his second hat trick in as many games. Look, everybody knows the upside. We're talking about a guy who scored 60 goals two seasons ago on his way to the Hart trophy. He's obviously in that tier right behind McDavid, and the only reason I had him towards the bottom of the tier is that he tends to miss 10-15 games a season. If Matthews can play 75+ games, a repeat of 60 goals is well within reason. Let's take a look at what else happened over the weekend:
If you didn't see Part One, check it out here. Let's get right into Part Two.
Tier Eight: Elite Upside But Medium Floor
It has been a terrible year for Kris Letang on and off the ice, but mostly off. He suffered a stroke and his father passed away shortly after. After almost a month away from the team, Letang returned on Tuesday and carried the Penguins to victory. Letang had a vintage performance, scoring two goals and two assists with six shots, four hits, and two blocks in the 7-6 OT win over the Panthers. I'm not going to say Letang will have a monster second half based on one game in his age 35 season. The good news is that there's a lot of games left for him to make an impact, and we know how big the upside is. If I said Letang was a top five defenseman the rest of the way, would you be shocked? I wouldn't. Now, the floor is much lower in the past, even assuming he can stay healthy. However, Pitt is starting to round into form, offensively at least, and the opportunity is there for a big finish. If your team is in position where you need to take a gamble, I would float some offers to the Letang owner. If I had him and was patient through the first three months, fingers crossed that he can salvage the season. Let's take a look at what else happened over the last two nights:
