Fantasy Hockey Advice

Back in September I decided to throw out some deep sleepers and write glowingly about their potential to surprise us all.  Turns out only 2 of the 8 decided to wake up this season.  That’s an accuracy of 25%, which coincidentally is the exact same odds of getting a correct answer on a multiple-choice question.  (Wow that really made it sound bad didn’t it?)  But it really isn’t that bad so let me defend my much younger self:  These were guys I was advising taking as a late-round flier.  Not dudes you should build your team around.  Hopefully if you ended up drafting, say, Andrew Cogliano you dropped him shortly after realizing he still sucks (which was somewhere around the 3rd period of the Ducks 1st game for me).   Judging by the players I chose it seems I’m a sucker for former 1st Round NHL draft picks.  (Dually noted… wait, dooley?  Duelie?  Dooly?).  Next year I put more emphasis on opportunity, line-mates, and the potential to see time on the Power Play….  Seriously though, Cogliano?  Must have been back before I quit sniffin’ glue…

Anthony Stewart – RW (Car):  Wow and here I thought Cogliano was the really big terd in this punch bowl…  Jeez.  20 Points in 77 Games?  64 Shots on Goal?  Not to be a dick about it, but that’s less than a shot per game.  You could freeze a stick in an upright position 15 feet from the net and get more Shots than that.

T.J. Galiardi – LW (SJ):  Wait this guy is on the Sharks now?  When the he-double-hockey-sticks did that happen?

Michael Frolik - C/RW (Chi):  Man this list is getting worse with each name.  I feel like (eyebrows raised) frolik-ing in some traffic right now. 

Dustin Penner - LW/RW (LA):  “I could’ve had this tiny-joint in my LW rankings but I’m just not a huge fan.  In fact I bet most of you saw the name and went HUH?  Penner is a badass!!!   Well he’s not, just look at the stats.  HOWEVA, he did have 32G, 31A, 17PPP’s and 200+ shots 2 years ago for the Oil.  HOWEVA II (the return of HOWEVA) after his trade to the Kings last year he disappeared.  I think the 30 Goal guy is still lurking somewhere, but I have a funny feeling that was a career year.”   Pretty strange blurb there.  I basically threw out every reason why Penner sucks, and then said ‘F*CK IT!  DRAFT HIM ANYWAY!’   I’m starting to realize having the ability to instantly go back and see what you wrote is more curse than blessing…

Derek Stepan – C (NYR):  So technically I could’ve labeled Stepan a successful sleeper pick (17G/34A/+14/169SOG) but I won’t.  21 Goals last year and only 17 this year just doesn’t scream ‘success’.  10  more Assists are nice, but with players who are this far down your roster Goals are the key.  I’m not sure how I’ll feel about Stepan in a few months, but it’s important to remember he’s still just 21 years old.

Kevin Shattenkirk – D (StL):  For you loyal readers (hi Mom!), you know I’ve been extremely critical of Shattenkirk this season.  But that’s just because I love him and have high expectations for his career!  Oh no wait, that’s what my Mom says about me…  The season ending line however is just too good to be critical: 9G/34A/+20/18PPP’s/60PIM’s/178SOG.  Forgive me Shatty, I know now what you’ve done…

Tomas Fleischmann – LW/RW (Fla):  Ding ding ding!  The true winner of my Sleeper lottery emerges!  Flash went batshit crazy this year and exceeded even my lofty expectations.  Any time you can get this kind of production (27G/34A/22PPP’s/217SOG) from a guy you either A) drafted in the last round or B) plucked off the waiver wire it’s gonna be a good season  (wait I have Fleischmann in both leagues and my teams still sucked…  QUIET REALITY!  You’re ruining my best sleeper pick of 2011-2012!).. Now just don’t be surprised when he falls off the preverbial cliff next year…

And there you have it.  Not a completely terrible list but not something I wanna put on my resume either… Enjoy the weekend playoff games and don’t forget to follow Puck Daddy’s instructions for viewing Saturday’s playoff extravaganza! 

So we have this special channel called “toddler tunes” which plays nothing but songs geared to the 2 & under crowd.  It’s around 5% goofy sounding songs, 5% slowed down instrumental pop music, and 90% songs about eating and/or sleeping.  (I think thats what industry experts call “catering to your audience.”) Anyway we put the channel on all the time cuz the little one likes it but the songs get stuck in my head like you can’t believe.  For the better part of 3 weeks now I’ve had a chorus of “…and now it’s time to sleep”  beating my brain into submission.  The rest of the song I couldn’t tell you, but those 6 words of the chorus will not leave me alone… Why am I telling you this?  “Because you feel the music flowing through you!”  No VTB thats not it.  It’s because whenever I think of that chorus my next immediate thought is potential sleepers in hockey.  So let’s preview summa dem:

Anthony Stewart – LW (Car):  Stewart decided to stay in the South while all his teammates from last year went up to Winnipeg.  He must not have wanted to be the only black man in Manitoba.  HI-OOOOOO!  A-Stew is the older brother of the more talented Chris Stewart, and he’s already 27 but was a first rounder back in the day just like his brother.  His minor league career was average at best, but he finally got a chance to play full time for the Thrashers last year – and he put up 39 points (10 of them on the Power Play) in 80 Games.  He’s now with Carolina and the only thing keeping him off the same line as Eric Staal is Tuomo Ruutu, who is somewhat injury proned.  Besides it’s Carolina, more than likely they ain’t going anywhere this year they’ll be shuffling lines all season.  Best case scenario, Stewart catches a break and ends up clicking with Staal on the top line/power play.  But don’t go crazy, thats a serious long-shot…  50 points and 15PPP’s is the upside so don’t think he’s anything more than a serviceable bench guy in a 12 team league.

Michael Frolik C/RW (Chi):  This M.F. was drafted (2006 1st round) and developed by the Florida Panthers, which doesn’t exactly guarantee success. (The other guy we just talked about is also a former 1st round pick of the Panthers.  Makes one wonder why they haven’t made the playoffs in 11 years?) But now Mi-Fro is free from the oppression of the Panthers and ready to break out.  He played quite a bit with Patrick Kane towards the end of last season and I think that will continue.  I could even imagine the #2 line in Chicago being Kane-Frolik-Sharp (top line= Hossa-Toews-Brunette).  Even if it’s not those exact combinations, Frolik should be somewhere in the top 6 in Chicago.  The down side? No clear path to Power Play minutes… Let’s go nuts and say 25G/30A/220SOG/10PPP’s.

T.J. Galiardi – LW (Col):  Is it just me or does his name sound like a custom drink at a bar in Tijuana?  “Tonight’s special is the TJ Galiardi, it comes with a lime and salt!”  He’s a Calgary native though so I’m sure he’s strictly a beer drinker… It’s his 3rd full season and he’s still just 23, but he only played in 35 Games last year due to a wrist injury.  In 2009-2010 he put up 15 Goals on 120 Shots — he’ll do better this year.  At some point in the season somebody not named Matt Duchene is going to have to score for Colorado, so why not TJ?  If I had to guess, I’d say something like 18G/30A/150SOG.  That probably relegates him to WWF (no not that, i mean Waiver Wire Fodder) but if you’re in a deep league he could work as a #3 LW…

Tomas Fleischmann – LW (Fla):  Much like Galiardi on Colorado someone is going to have to score Goals on the Panthers.  Enter Fleisch-mann.  He was red hot for Colorado last year after they traded for him (21 Points in 22 Games) but its tough to believe in it since prior to that he had 138 points in 283 career games.  But we’re talking sleepers here, so don’t draft him expecting a stud.  I’d expect 18G/25A/12PPP’s and hope for more.  So if that can help your team then he’s worth drafting.

I’ll probably have a couple more sleeper posts so stay tuned… On an administrative note, I’m doing the RCL Leagues.  If you are interested in becomming a commisioner let me know in the comments, I’ll email you with instructions.  I’m hoping to have 4-5 commissioners by Monday and all next week we’ll have people join those 4-5 leagues.  Chorus – And now it’s time to sleep.

Every year a couple-few players come out of nowhere and provide huge production at little to no cost.  I’ve come up with a term for these type of players….. now this is all off the top of my head and I’ve never heard anyone use this word before……….  wait for it…………   SLEEPERS!   Pretty clever huh?   These are the guys who you take a flier on in one of the last 3 rounds, just in case they blow up.  Most of them will just simply blow, but if 1 of the 3 hit their ceiling it could mean the difference between you making the playoffs or missing the playoffs.  Now LET’S GET IT ON!!!

Andrew Cogliano – C (Ana):  I’ll start things off with a legit “sleeper”.  Sure he is a former 1st Round draft pick (in real hockey), but I guarantee if Cogliano gets drafted at any point in your draft it’s only because that person reads this blog.  Sure he’s a long-shot, but I’m saying Cogliano is somebody you take with your last pick.  At best.  A.C is currently slated to be the 3rd line Center for the Ducks, but between Getzlaf and Koivu I see at least 35 games missed.  That means opportunity for Cog’s with either Ryan and/or Perry on his Wing, and that means points… On top of that the latest is that Cogliano could replace Koivu as the #2 Center PERIOD.  And knowing how much peanut-head Carlyle loves to split up the RPG line (Ryan Perry Getzlaf) odds are we’ll be seeing a Cogliano-Ryan pairing at some point.

Kevin Shattenkirk – D (StL):  I don’t even have to come up with a clever remark or nickname for this dude… Shattenkirk?  That’s just way too easy…  What isn’t easy is figuring out exactly how under the radar he is.  Upon joining the Blues late last year Shatty had 17 points (5 PPP’s) in just 26 games.  For those of you who aren’t math majors, that averages out to around 53-54 points and 15-16 PPP’s over a full season.  That’s more than what you got out of Drew Doughty last year.  (F*** I hate Defensemen!).  I don’t think he’ll get quite to that level, but he is a former Top 15 pick (2007).  So at some point, somebody, somewhere, thought he’d be something special.  And some-one, somewhere, will be drafting some-one named Kevin Shattenkirk.

Dustin Penner – LW (LA):  I could’ve had this tiny-joint in my LW rankings but I’m just not a huge fan.  In fact I bet most of you saw the name and went HUH?  Penner is a badass!!!   Well he’s not, just look at the stats.  HOWEVA, he did have 32G, 31A, 17PPP’s and 200+ shots 2 years ago for the Oil.  HOWEVA II (the return of HOWEVA) after his trade to the Kings last year he disappeared.  I think the 30 Goal guy is still lurking somewhere, but I have a funny feeling that was a career year.  If you can get D.P. really late in your draft do it – just don’t be afraid to drop him in November if he isn’t producing.

Derek Stepan – C (NYR):  For those of you on the Eastern seaboard Stepan is probably not a sleeper (what does seaboard mean anyway?  Did I even spell it right?).  But for those of us who live outside the North-East Stepan is relatively unkown.  He and Brian Boyle will battle it out for the #2 Center spot, but I think Derek will win the job.  He had a nice rookie season last year (21G, 24A, 10PPP’s) and I predict a slight increase from those stats.